Brazilians want their money to stretch further. They are making different choices.
A cada Copa do Mundo, o Brasil revela algo sobre si mesmo — não apenas nos campos, mas nas prateleiras dos supermercados. Em 2026, o que os brasileiros colocam no carrinho conta uma história de celebração contida: o frango substituindo a carne bovina, a cerveja sem álcool ganhando espaço, o pacote família como estratégia de sobrevivência financeira. O espírito festivo persiste, mas é moldado pela aritmética do orçamento apertado e por novos hábitos que vieram para ficar.
- As vendas no varejo disparam 24% na véspera dos jogos do Brasil, mas o consumidor chega ao caixa com escolhas diferentes das de quatro anos atrás.
- A carne bovina — símbolo do churrasco nacional — perde espaço para o frango, que custa 44% menos, enquanto a air fryer substitui a grelha tradicional nas reuniões de jogo.
- Cervejas sem álcool e refrigerantes sem açúcar registram crescimento expressivo desde 2022, sinalizando que saúde e economia de dinheiro caminham juntas no novo perfil do consumidor.
- Varejistas enfrentam juros altos que encarecem o estoque e exigem promoções cirúrgicas, tornando a estratégia de cada dia de jogo uma decisão de negócio de alta precisão.
- Os R$ 5,5 bilhões em investimento publicitário ligado à Copa — 20% de toda a verba de publicidade de 2025 — mostram que o mercado aposta alto, mesmo sabendo que o consumidor chegará à festa com o bolso mais cauteloso.
Os supermercados brasileiros já se preparam para a Copa do Mundo de 2026, mas as prateleiras contarão uma história diferente da de quatro anos atrás. Dados da Scanntech Brasil mostram que as vendas no varejo sobem 24% na véspera dos jogos do Brasil — um alívio para um setor que viu volumes caírem nos últimos trimestres. O problema é que o consumidor que chega às lojas está fazendo contas.
O frango avança sobre a carne bovina: custa 44% menos e, em 2025, para cada 950 gramas de frango compradas, os lares levaram 586 gramas de carne. A air fryer, mais barata de operar que a churrasqueira, sobe 112% nas vendas em dias de jogo. O microondas de pipoca cresce 120%. Cervejas sem álcool e refrigerantes sem açúcar, tendência quase invisível em 2022, consolidaram-se como escolha recorrente. Embalagens família ganham preferência — uma forma de fazer o dinheiro render mais.
Os varejistas ajustam a estratégia ao novo cenário. Redes como a Chama Supermercados coordenam promoções com fabricantes para maximizar o impacto nos produtos certos, nos momentos certos. A Copa de 2026, realizada em junho e julho, favorece o varejo: o calendário coincide com a temporada natural de confraternizações, e os jogos noturnos reúnem famílias e amigos — exatamente quando o estoque de um supermercado mais importa.
Até categorias inusitadas tentam surfar a onda. A Reckitt lançou sua primeira promoção de Copa atrelada a produtos de limpeza como Veja e Vanish, com prêmios em ouro para quem comprar acima de R$ 20. É um reflexo da magnitude do momento: o investimento em marketing ligado ao torneio deve chegar a R$ 5,5 bilhões, o equivalente a 20% de toda a verba publicitária de 2025.
O retrato que emerge é o de um país que quer celebrar, mas não pode ignorar a matemática. A festa virá — só será um pouco diferente do que costumava ser.
Brazil's World Cup is coming, and the supermarkets are already preparing for the surge. But this time, the shelves will tell a different story than they did four years ago.
Retail sales spike by 24 percent on the day before a Brazil match, according to data analysis from Scanntech Brasil, a firm that tracks consumer behavior across the food retail sector. The company studied purchasing patterns during Brazil's games in recent tournaments—the 2022 World Cup, the 2025 Club World Cup, the 2025 Intercontinental Cup, and the 2024 and 2025 Copa Libertadores—and found that the anticipation of a match drives a measurable surge in what people buy. For a retail sector that has spent the last several quarters watching sales volumes decline, this is meaningful. The World Cup offers a lift, even if consumers are not spending the way they once did.
Thomaz Machado, the CEO of Scanntech Brasil, frames it plainly: Brazilians want their money to stretch further. They are making different choices. The traditional centerpiece of a World Cup gathering—the beef churrasco, the grilled meat that defines Brazilian entertaining—is giving ground to chicken. Chicken costs roughly 44 percent less than beef. In 2025, for every 950 grams of chicken a household bought, they took home 586 grams of beef. Air fryer snacks are rising in popularity too, a cheaper alternative to traditional grilling. Zero-alcohol beer and sugar-free soft drinks are climbing in sales, a shift that was barely visible during the 2022 World Cup but has become a steady trend since then.
The data on what moves during match days is specific. Grills jump 227 percent. Microwave popcorn climbs 120 percent. Air fryers rise 112 percent. Salted peanuts go up 86 percent. Whole chickens increase 60 percent. Beef cuts for grilling still rise, but the composition of the cart is changing. Consumers are also buying family-size packages more often this year, a way to make bulk purchases feel like better value.
Retailers are adjusting their strategy accordingly. Fábio Iwamoto, director of Chama Supermercados, which operates in the eastern zone of São Paulo, says his stores will stock up on the expected bestsellers: beers, soft drinks, juices, grilling items, microwave popcorn, frozen snacks, and packaged salty foods. The chain is coordinating promotions with manufacturers to maximize impact. Erlon Ortega, president of the São Paulo Supermarket Association, notes that the timing works in retailers' favor this year. The 2022 World Cup was held in Qatar in November and December, outside the traditional season. This tournament runs in June and July, when families naturally gather and entertaining is already on the calendar. Evening matches mean people will gather with friends and family—the exact moment when a supermarket's inventory matters most.
The higher cost of beef may accelerate the shift toward chicken and pork, Ortega acknowledges. But the real pressure on retailers comes from interest rates. Borrowing costs are high, which means the cost of holding inventory is high. Promotions need to be surgical, not broad. Scanntech's Machado emphasizes that the day before a match is when retailers must be most strategic about which products to discount and which to push.
Even categories outside food and beverages are trying to ride the wave. Reckitt, the manufacturer of Veja cleaning products and Vanish stain remover, is running its first-ever World Cup promotion tied to these brands. Customers who spend at least 20 reais on Veja or Vanish products enter a drawing for weekly prizes of 30,000 reais in gold certificates, with top prizes reaching 700 reais on a virtual card. It is an unusual move—cleaning products and football—but it reflects the scale of the moment. Marketing investment tied to the World Cup is expected to reach 5.5 billion reais, according to Luiz Lara, president of the council at Cenp, Brazil's advertising self-regulation forum. That represents 20 percent of all advertising spending in 2025. The official sponsorship deals account for 4.2 billion reais of that total.
What emerges is a portrait of a consumer who wants to celebrate but cannot ignore the math. The World Cup will drive spending. But it will be spending shaped by constraint, by the search for value, by the slow substitution of one protein for another. The party is still coming. It will just look a little different than before.
Citações Notáveis
The World Cup offers a lift, even if consumers are not spending the way they once did.— Thomaz Machado, CEO of Scanntech Brasil
Evening matches mean people will gather with friends and family—the exact moment when a supermarket's inventory matters most.— Erlon Ortega, president of the São Paulo Supermarket Association
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the timing of this World Cup matter so much for retailers?
The 2022 tournament was in Qatar in November and December, completely outside the natural entertaining season in Brazil. This one is in June and July, when families are already thinking about gathering. Evening matches mean people plan their social time around the games. That's when a supermarket's stock and promotions actually move the needle.
The shift from beef to chicken—is that just about price, or is something else happening?
Price is the main driver, but it's not the whole story. Chicken costs 44 percent less. But people are also buying air fryers and frozen snacks instead of traditional grilling. It's a different way of entertaining. Cheaper, faster, less labor-intensive. The budget constraint is real, but it's also reshaping how Brazilians gather.
What surprised you most in the data?
The zero-alcohol beer and sugar-free drinks. In 2022, those barely registered. Now they're a significant trend. It suggests people aren't just cutting costs—they're also changing what they actually want to consume. Health consciousness is sticking around even when money is tight.
Why would a cleaning product company care about the World Cup?
Because 5.5 billion reais is flowing into World Cup marketing. When that much money is moving through retail, every category wants a piece. Reckitt is betting that people shopping for party supplies will also see their promotion and enter the drawing. It's opportunistic, but it works because the entire retail ecosystem is activated at once.
Are retailers actually making money on these promotions, or are they just trying to drive traffic?
That's the tension. Interest rates are high, so holding inventory costs more. Retailers need to be precise about which products to discount and which to push at full margin. The day before a match is crucial—that's when people are buying. But the math is tighter than it used to be.