Israel's Election Is Too Close to Call as Exit Polls Show Netanyahu and Opposition in a Dead Heat

Shortly after 3:15 on Wednesday morning, Benjamin Netanyahu walked onto a stage in a Jerusalem conference hall, looking reinvigorated, and told Likud supporters, "We must form a strong right-wing government." Hours earlier, past midnight, his main rival Gadi Eisenkot had addressed his own crowd as if he had already won. Neither man had. Israelis had voted on Tuesday in the largest numbers in a generation, and the exit polls showed Netanyahu's alliance and the opposition bloc roughly even.

The polls from Israel's three largest television networks shifted through the night. At first they projected a small lead for Eisenkot's anti-Netanyahu alliance. Later one gave Netanyahu and his allies a slight edge, and the other two showed a tie. Israeli exit polls have a spotty record, especially in tight races. Counting will take days, and by nearly 4 a.m. election authorities had tallied almost a million votes, about a fifth of those cast.

If the polls hold, neither bloc can govern without two Arab parties, projected to win as many as 17 or 18 seats in the 120-seat Parliament, their strongest showing ever. Netanyahu has effectively ruled out bringing them in, and Eisenkot and his partners have balked at the idea too. The two parties are the socially conservative United Arab List, known as Raam, and the left-wing Joint List. Their voters turned out in record numbers. Many said they were furious at Netanyahu over his treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and over policies they feel make Palestinians in Israel second-class citizens. Throughout the campaign, Netanyahu made overt appeals to anti-Arab prejudice.

Mansour Abbas, Raam's leader, said Arab voters, about 20 percent of Israel's population, had turned "frustration and despair" into "hope." He said he wanted to replace Netanyahu's government "in every possible way." Relying on Arab lawmakers remains fraught, because many Israeli Jews believe a majority should not depend on them. Raam is the only one of the two to have joined a government, in 2021, in Naftali Bennett's short-lived anti-Netanyahu coalition. Its participation outraged many right-wing voters, who backed Netanyahu when that government collapsed after about a year. He then formed the most hard-line government in Israel's history.

The leaders' speeches were sharply different in tone. Eisenkot, a former military chief whose son was killed in the Gaza war, declared, "We've made history," and said, "Tonight we got the answer. The public wants change." He told security chiefs and public servants that Netanyahu now leads a transitional government that has lost public confidence, adding, "You have my clear backing." Amid reports that Netanyahu has been pushing for renewed attacks on Iran, he warned: "Netanyahu, don't dare use Israel's security for your political needs."

Netanyahu, now a caretaker prime minister, called the exit polls only a preview and said he awaited official results. Even so, he said Likud had clearly emerged as the largest party, and mocked months of polls that had shown it trailing Eisenkot's. Listing enemies who have been killed, including Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he said, "Iran is weaker than ever, Israel is stronger than ever," but added it was "still not over" and that with his "friend" President Trump the Iranian threat could be removed for good. Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, said parties that cannot condemn the Oct. 7 massacre or declare Hamas a terrorist organization are "not legitimate actors." Bennett told supporters, "The government of Oct. 7 will go home," and pledged to set ego aside to form a government that would conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews.

Analysts are weighing a unity government of Netanyahu and Eisenkot or others in the opposition, but the obstacles are large. Eisenkot's voters despise Netanyahu, the two would have to settle who is prime minister, and Eisenkot has called Netanyahu unfit to lead. Eisenkot has floated a minority government, though a coalition normally needs at least 61 lawmakers.

What happens next: once official totals are released and seats allocated, President Isaac Herzog will invite the leader he thinks best placed to build a coalition. The exit polls do not capture hundreds of thousands of ballots cast at military bases, hospitals, prisons and embassies, which favored Netanyahu's coalition in the previous election. Those votes, and any defections from either bloc, could decide the outcome.