Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner in Israeli Election as Netanyahu Refuses to Concede

In the early hours of Wednesday, two campaign headquarters in Israel were celebrating at the same time. Exit polls from the country's major TV stations had come in, and they pointed to an election with no clear winner. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right and religious coalition appeared to have been rebuked by voters, yet Netanyahu himself was far from beaten, three years into a war that began on his watch.

The polls put Netanyahu's bloc and the bloc led by his challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, at about 51 seats each in the 120-seat parliament. Arab-led parties were projected at about 18, apparently a historic showing. Netanyahu's Likud was projected to fall from 32 seats to around 27, though it would stay the largest party and the best placed to be asked to form a government. His coalition, which peaked at 68 members, had begun to disintegrate over the past year. Voters appeared disappointed in his alliance with the far right and angry about draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

The polls suggest opponents of the government hold a solid majority, but only if the disparate parties among them can work together. The easiest route to a majority would have Eisenkot partnering with the Arab-led parties. Eisenkot has left the door open to that under certain conditions, but some of his likely partners have ruled it out. Even if they agree, the haggling would probably take weeks.

Netanyahu, speaking early Wednesday, was upbeat and listed the military achievements of the past three years. He called on opponents to line up behind him and dismissed any partnership with Arab parties, whose constituents are 20% of Israel's population, as treasonous. "We must establish a strong, right-wing, nationalist government," he said, warning against one that relies on "anti-Zionist Arab parties." Even if he cannot form a government, that rhetoric could complicate his opponents' efforts and set the stage for a new vote in which he might gain ground. The close result also suggests the opposition could not fully capitalize on the public anger and grief from Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attacks.

Eisenkot, who campaigned on national unity, pledged to form a government and promised "a new era — an era of hope." He told cheering supporters that the people had decided in favor of change. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, which his backers say shapes how deeply he feels the country's pain. They also see him as a capable leader with strong security credentials. The parties likely to back him have vowed to improve Israel's international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence.

Israel's Arab citizens are descendants of Palestinians who stayed after 1948. They hold senior jobs in many sectors but face discrimination and are often viewed as a fifth column, a suspicion that deepened after Oct. 7. Netanyahu had warned on Tuesday that the Arab parties were getting "truly massive support" and voting in "unprecedented numbers." At the headquarters of the United Arab List, the only Arab party ever to join a governing coalition, briefly in 2021, the mood was joyful. Party leader Mansour Abbas told supporters: "We are here, we are not on the sidelines."

The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule, and as a struggle over whether Israel keeps its liberal and secular foundations. His supporters call him a steady statesman who led the country through a war of redemption. His detractors point to his ongoing corruption trial and accuse him of prolonging the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons, and of weakening the judiciary. Jerusalem voter Angela Bengur said the government is "driving the country into the ground." Netanyahu also faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies.

Exit polls can be wrong, and hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots remain uncounted, so final results due in the coming days may differ. Israel's president will then ask the leader with the best chance, usually the head of the largest party, to build a coalition. If no one can, new elections could come early next year. Israel held five between April 2019 and November 2022 over a similar stalemate.