Israel has returned from its latest election without a victor, and the decision now rests with President Isaac Herzog, who must judge whether any combination of parties can hold together. Netanyahu, whom most voters rejected, remains in office as caretaker, a reminder that democratic verdicts do not always translate into immediate change. The question at the center is whether a divided country can find a stable path, and whether the fear of conflict might succeed where campaign rhetoric failed to build common ground.
Two Ironies Define Israel's Deadlocked Election as Netanyahu Stays in Power Despite Voter Rejection
More than two-thirds of voters voted against him, yet he remains in power.
Mark
Two-thirds of voters opposed Netanyahu, and he still stays. How does that work?
Mimi
Because no one has a majority. He remains caretaker until a government forms or a new election is called, which could take weeks or months.
Mark
What does he need?
Mimi
61 seats. His coalition is predicted at 50. If Bennett's Together party, predicted at 13, joined him, he'd reach 63.
Luke
Worth noting those are predicted figures, not final results. And Bennett being named as a target is the analysis's suggestion, not a confirmed approach.
Mark
And the Arab parties?
Mimi
They've signalled willingness to cooperate, but the anti-Netanyahu leaders say no. Bennett is among the firmest, and Lieberman prefers fresh elections to a minority government.
Luke
So the kingmaker role is potential, not actual. Nobody has agreed to it.
Mark
What about the Iran worry?
Mimi
Some Israelis fear escalation could justify a wartime unity government, keeping Netanyahu in place. The Washington Post reports he floated that with the Trump administration.
Luke
That's one newspaper's report, and the Likud official quoted spoke only of wanting a stable government. Whether Netanyahu would actually escalate is unknown. The Trump administration is also described as divided.
Il Polso
- More than two-thirds of voters turned against Netanyahu, yet he holds the reins while no majority can be assembled.
- Netanyahu's bloc sits at around 50 seats, far short of the 61 needed, so every defection and every alliance carries enormous weight.
- Arab Israeli parties hold quiet kingmaker power, even as the major Jewish parties refuse to share a table with them.
- Whispers of war with Iran and talk of a unity government hang over the talks, while Washington reportedly watches and remains divided on what it wants.
Israel has returned from its latest election without a victor, and the decision now rests with President Isaac Herzog, who must judge whether any combination of parties can hold together. Netanyahu, whom most voters rejected, remains in office as caretaker, a reminder that democratic verdicts do not always translate into immediate change. The question at the center is whether a divided country can find a stable path, and whether the fear of conflict might succeed where campaign rhetoric failed to build common ground.
Israel's election has ended without a clear winner, and the next move belongs to President Isaac Herzog. Over the coming weeks he must decide whether any party can assemble a workable coalition. More than two-thirds of voters rejected Benjamin Netanyahu, yet he remains in office as caretaker, holding power while the negotiations drag on, possibly for months.
The Arab Israeli parties, largely absent from the campaign, may now be the kingmakers. Yet the major Jewish parties have long refused them as partners, even though the Arab leadership has signalled willingness to cooperate. The arithmetic is unforgiving: Netanyahu's bloc is predicted to win around 50 of 120 seats, and a majority needs 61. He is looking to peel away a party from the camp led by Gadi Eisenkot, and Naftali Bennett's Together party, predicted at 13 seats, is the name most often mentioned.
Bennett, however, has insisted he will not work with the Arab parties, and Avigdor Lieberman has suggested that a return to the polls may be preferable to a minority government. Some senior figures in Netanyahu's own party have urged colleagues to join Eisenkot in the name of national unity.
Anxiety has grown that Netanyahu might escalate with Iran or another neighbour, a move that could reshape talks around the call for wartime unity. Reports suggest he has floated the idea with the Trump administration, which reportedly wants a stable government quickly but remains divided on what that means. The analysis suggests that the prospect of escalation may be the strongest force pushing the anti-Netanyahu camp toward each other. Watch Herzog, watch Bennett, and watch for any shift on the Iranian front.
Israel's election has ended without a clear winner, and the next move belongs to President Isaac Herzog. Over the coming couple of weeks he must decide whether any party can assemble what he considers a workable coalition. More than two-thirds of voters cast their ballots against Benjamin Netanyahu, and yet he is not going anywhere for now.
That is the first of two ironies the ABC's analysis identifies. Because no outcome is decisive, the prime minister continues in office as caretaker, despite the voters' clear rejection of him. He stays while the negotiations play out, whether that takes weeks or months, or, if no government can be formed, until a new election is called.
The second irony concerns Arab Israelis. Their voices and concerns were barely mentioned during the campaign, and the major Jewish Israeli parties have long refused them as partners in power. Yet they potentially hold the role of kingmakers. The anti-Netanyahu forces insisted throughout the campaign that they would not form a coalition with the Arab parties, even though the Arab parties' leadership signalled it was willing to cooperate with them.
The arithmetic explains why. Netanyahu's existing coalition is predicted to win 50 of the Knesset's 120 seats, and a majority government needs 61. He will therefore be looking to peel off a party from the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of the Israel Defense Forces. One name already mentioned as a target is Naftali Bennett, a former colleague and a former prime minister. His Together party is predicted to win 13 seats, which would lift the Netanyahu bloc to 63.
Bennett, however, has been among the most insistent anti-Netanyahu leaders that he will not work with the Arab parties. Avigdor Lieberman, another leader in that camp, has dismissed the idea of any minority government, saying Israelis would be better off simply going back to the polls. Meanwhile some elder statesmen of Netanyahu's own party have urged members of the party, or of parties in his bloc, to abandon him and join Eisenkot in the interests of national unity.
There is also anxiety in Israel, expressed over the past week, that Netanyahu might return the country to war with Iran or escalate conflict with another neighbour. The thinking is that escalation would shape the atmosphere around coalition talks, or strengthen the argument that wartime conditions require a wartime unity government. In that scenario the prime minister would likely remain in power.
According to the Washington Post, Netanyahu has already floated such an idea with the Trump administration. An official from his Likud party told the paper that Trump wants a stable and reliable Israeli government formed as soon as possible after the election. People familiar with the matter said the administration remains divided on what that looks like.
The analysis suggests the threat of escalation may be the strongest reason for the anti-Netanyahu forces to learn to deal with each other. What to watch: whether Herzog finds a workable coalition, whether Bennett or others defect, and whether any security escalation with Iran changes the shape of the talks.
Citazioni salienti
What Trump wants is a stable and reliable Israeli government that can be formed as soon as possible after the election.— Official from Netanyahu's Likud party, to the Washington Post
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Leggi l'originale su ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation ↗
Politics & Governance