Why India Has Soured on Trump Ahead of US Midterms

In 2019, Narendra Modi stood beside Donald Trump in a Houston stadium filled with more than 50,000 Indian Americans and praised him without reservation. Trump, he said, was warm, friendly, accessible, energetic and full of wit every time they met. Modi even adapted a slogan from his own campaigns, calling out "Abki baar, Trump sarkaar," Hindi for "This time, a Trump government." The rally was, in effect, an effort to rally the wealthiest diaspora in the US behind Trump's bid for a second term. Trump lost that election.

Seven years on, with Trump facing difficult midterms that could cost him seats in Congress and cripple his legislative agenda, the relationship looks nothing like that. Indian officials have been more direct in recent weeks than ever before in criticizing his administration, and many analysts believe the Modi government may now prefer a president chastened by midterm losses.

The shift cuts against history. India has long had bipartisan support in Washington, but its strategic community has often been more comfortable with Republican presidents. Ties were reset under Ronald Reagan as the Cold War wound down, after decades of mistrust tied to New Delhi's closeness with Moscow. Between 2006 and 2008, George W Bush struck a landmark civil nuclear deal that gave India access to global nuclear technology and fuel even though it is not an NPT signatory, and signed military pacts allowing US ships and planes refuelling and logistical access to Indian bases. Democratic administrations, by contrast, were often seen in Delhi as harsher on human rights. Modi himself once called Trump "India's best friend in the White House."

Trump's second term has broken the pattern. India normally handles disputes with friendly nations quietly, but months of tension have changed that. Last month in New York, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said the administration had been insensitive to India's concerns about terrorism, had warmed to rival Pakistan, and had pursued self-centred trade policies that disproportionately hurt the Global South. Countries, he said, should not be so self-centred that they take decisions and then say it was not their intention to make others' lives difficult.

The list of irritants is long: punitive tariffs and stalled trade talks, pressure to stop buying Russian oil, Trump's repeated claims that he mediated a 2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire (which Delhi rejects), closer US ties with Pakistan, higher H-1B visa fees and a wider immigration crackdown. Earlier this month, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the trade negotiations had reached a plateau beyond which giving or taking might be very difficult. India was at one point among the countries facing the worst Trump tariff rates. After the US Supreme Court struck down his sweeping tariffs in February, the administration turned to other tools, including a new 10 percent global tariff. Last month Trump signed a law allowing tariffs of up to 100 percent on buyers of Russian oil such as India, then paused it to avoid raising US energy prices before the November midterms.

There is a human and political edge as well. MAGA-aligned voices have often targeted Indians and Indian Americans with racist tropes, accusing them of stealing jobs through programmes like H-1B, and anti-Indian rhetoric on US social media is at an all-time high. Early in his term, Trump sent many undocumented Indian immigrants home shackled in chains, an image that outraged India. Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment said Delhi can tolerate genuine policy differences, but these attacks "have struck a nerve," while noting the Modi government has shown admirable restraint.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who visited Mumbai this week but skipped the capital, told The Indian Express that none of the tariffs are meant to punish India, and that Trump paused the oil measure partly because of its potential damage to a very important relationship. He did not rule out a return of such measures, saying the president is trying hard to balance things but that it will be a challenge. Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group argued that the bipartisan consensus on India has ended in Washington, and that the measures have revived distrust of the US among India's strategic establishment.

Whether midterm losses would help is contested. Trump faces the worst approval ratings of his career amid record gas prices tied to the energy crisis from the US-Israel war on Iran, which began in February. Vaishnav says many Democrats, and Republicans, are livid over the handling of India ties and that a Democratic Congress could have a moderating effect. Michael Kugelman doubts it, saying that as Trump enters his final years he will pursue what he thinks best advances US economic interests, including more tariff threats on India. Donthi adds that a weakened Trump may not bring relief, given a broader Republican consensus on pressuring India. Just after Trump's 2024 win, Jaishankar smiled and said India was not among the nervous countries. Those smiles are gone.