Yemen's Red Sea offensive threatens global oil supplies amid humanitarian catastrophe

A week of rapid military gains has transformed Yemen's western coast into a new flashpoint for global energy security. Houthi fighters, aligned with Iran, have seized control of strategic islands and ports along the Red Sea, including the critical Bab al-Mandab strait—a 20-mile passage through which nearly 15 percent of the world's sea trade flows. The capture of the port city of Mocha and key islands like Perim, Greater Hanish, and Lesser Hanish represents what analysts describe as the most significant shift in territorial control Yemen has seen in years. Oil markets have already responded: crude prices spiked to $108 a barrel earlier this week before settling around $104, a sharp climb from $80 in early July. The prospect of Iran and its allies controlling two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints—this one and the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely blocked since February—carries implications that ripple far beyond the Middle East.

For the people living in Yemen, the world's poorest country in the region, the military escalation is simply the latest catastrophe layered atop an existing humanitarian collapse. At least 150,000 people have been killed since the civil war began in 2014, mostly through aerial bombardment by the Saudi-backed coalition supporting the Yemeni government. Four and a half million have been displaced over the past decade. The UN estimates that more than 18.2 million Yemenis—roughly twice London's population—are in dire need of humanitarian aid. In just the past few days, the new fighting has displaced at least 100,000 more. When Houthi forces took Mocha last week, local media reported that more than 240 pregnant women were preparing to give birth without access to healthcare.

The conflict's roots run back to 2014, when civil war erupted between the Yemeni army and the Houthi movement, which represents Yemen's Shia Muslim minority. A year later, the Houthis—part of Iran's loose coalition of armed groups that includes Hamas and Hezbollah—toppled the Saudi-backed government. The fighting has devastated Yemen's economy and way of life. Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House who grew up in a remote mountain village where his family kept bees, has documented how the years of conflict have destroyed the honey trade that once sustained thousands of farmers. He describes the current situation as worse than 2015, with global attention diverted to crises elsewhere and far less willingness to provide humanitarian assistance.

The Houthi advance was not sudden. Analysts tracking Yemen had observed for months that the group was preparing a major offensive. It erupted about a week ago with coordinated seizures across the western coast. Since then, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes on a critical east-west oil pipeline that moves crude from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea export hub of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia has responded with what Houthi military officials claim were as many as 450 airstrikes in a single week. The escalation has raised fears that other Muslim nations could be drawn into the conflict, prompting an emergency UN Security Council meeting in New York on Tuesday.

The economic stakes are enormous. If the Houthis were to fully close the Bab al-Mandab strait, ships would be forced to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, adding weeks to journeys and dramatically raising shipping costs. Combined with the ongoing blockade of Hormuz, such a scenario could give Iran and its allies control over roughly a third of global energy trade. Al-Muslimi has warned against taking Houthi assurances at face value. Since the group began attacking Red Sea shipping in 2023, in response to Israel's operations in Gaza, UN investigators have documented evidence that the Houthis have extracted informal payments from shipping agencies in exchange for safe passage. The price of diesel in the United States hit $6 per gallon for the first time last week, squeezed by the Iran conflict and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

The geopolitical picture remains volatile. Saudi Arabia announced a mutual defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan in August, though it has not yet publicly invoked the agreement. The US faces a delicate position. After conducting airstrikes against the Houthis in 2025 following their attacks on Red Sea shipping, the Trump administration reached a ceasefire with the group in May of that year. Guardian reporting confirmed that US officials met with Houthi leaders over the weekend in Oman, where they received assurances that the ceasefire remained intact and that the Houthis had no intention of attacking American vessels. Trump has condemned the Houthi advance as a threat to freedom of navigation but has rejected military intervention in support of Saudi Arabia. The existing truce gives both sides incentives for restraint—the US wants to avoid another costly Middle Eastern military engagement while managing the Hormuz situation, and the Houthis suffered serious damage in the 2025 bombing campaign.

Yet as Yemen becomes strategically more important to global energy markets and regional stability, the country itself remains one of the least understood in the Middle East. Analysts have long criticized the US and its allies for approaching Yemen's challenges primarily through a security lens, neglecting diplomacy and development while larger regional powers have exploited internal instability to wage proxy battles. Al-Muslimi's central concern is that the world's focus on oil prices and maritime chokepoints will further eclipse the suffering of ordinary Yemenis. A country already devastated by a decade of war, already home to millions in desperate need of aid, now faces new displacement and violence with even less international attention and fewer resources devoted to civilian welfare.