The space business shrinks to near irrelevance by 2031
A company born from the dream of reaching other worlds is now being offered to the public on the premise that its future lies not in the stars, but in artificial intelligence. SpaceX's $1.8 trillion IPO — the largest ever attempted — rests on Wall Street forecasts projecting a hundredfold expansion of its AI division within five years, a transformation so sweeping it would render the rockets that made the company legendary a footnote in its own story. The offering invites investors to wager not on what SpaceX has built, but on what it intends to become — and whether the distance between those two things can be crossed before the market loses patience.
- SpaceX is entering public markets at a $1.8 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in history — with a price tag that demands its AI division grow from $3.2 billion to over $320 billion in revenue within five years.
- Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI are circulating forecasts so aggressive they effectively recast SpaceX as an AI infrastructure company, with the rocket and launch business projected to shrink to just 1% of revenue by 2031.
- To fund this transformation, SpaceX plans capital expenditures that could reach $732 billion by 2031, with $666 billion earmarked for AI infrastructure alone — a spending pace that rivals the GDP of mid-sized nations.
- Analysts are benchmarking SpaceX not against aerospace peers but against Nvidia, Palantir, and CoreWeave, signaling that Wall Street has already decided what kind of company this is — even if the rockets haven't landed yet.
- Shares are set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 11, at which point the market will begin rendering its own verdict on whether these projections reflect vision or speculative excess.
SpaceX is heading to public markets with a valuation of $1.8 trillion — the largest IPO ever attempted — and the story Wall Street is telling to justify that number is one of radical reinvention. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI began pitching the offering to potential buyers on Thursday, circulating forecasts that project SpaceX's AI division growing from $3.2 billion in revenue last year to between $322 billion and $331 billion by 2030. That hundredfold expansion, if realized, would make SpaceX's AI business larger than the total revenues of most Fortune 500 companies.
In both banks' models, the company's identity shifts almost entirely. Goldman projects AI accounting for nearly 68% of $474 billion in total revenue by 2030. Evercore is slightly more bullish, forecasting $486 billion in total revenue with AI's share climbing to 74% by 2031. Meanwhile, the launch and rocket business that built SpaceX's reputation is expected to represent just 1% of revenue by 2031, down from over 20% today. Even Starlink, the satellite internet division projected to grow from $11.4 billion to $140 billion annually, becomes secondary to the AI ambition.
The capital required for this transformation is staggering. Both banks project expenditures exceeding $360 billion by 2030, with Evercore forecasting that figure nearly doubling to $732 billion by 2031 — approximately $666 billion of which would be dedicated to AI infrastructure alone. These are not adjustments at the margin; they represent a fundamental reallocation of the company's resources toward competing in the artificial intelligence arms race reshaping Silicon Valley.
Analysts are comparing SpaceX to an unusual constellation of peers: Nvidia, Tesla, CoreWeave, Palantir, and Rocket Lab — a grouping that signals they view SpaceX less as a space company experimenting with AI and more as an AI company that inherited a launch division. Neither SpaceX nor the banks offered comment on the projections. The offering is scheduled to price on June 11, with shares trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.
SpaceX is heading to the public markets with a valuation that hinges almost entirely on a bet that its artificial intelligence division will become a hundred-billion-dollar business within five years. On Thursday morning, Wall Street's biggest investment banks began pitching the company's initial public offering to potential buyers, and the numbers they're circulating tell a story of radical transformation—one in which the rocket company that made Elon Musk famous becomes, by the end of the decade, primarily an AI company that happens to own some satellites.
The IPO is priced at $135 per share, valuing SpaceX at $1.8 trillion, making it the largest public offering ever attempted. To justify that number, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI have constructed forecasts that require the AI division to grow from $3.2 billion in revenue last year to somewhere between $322 billion and $331 billion by 2030. That's a hundredfold increase in five years. For context, that would make SpaceX's AI business larger than the entire current revenue of most Fortune 500 companies.
Goldman Sachs projects total company revenue of $474 billion by 2030, with AI accounting for nearly 68 percent of that figure. Evercore's forecast is slightly more bullish on the AI division, predicting $486 billion in total revenue with AI hitting $331 billion—a share that would climb to 74 percent by 2031. In both scenarios, the space business—the rockets and launches that built the company's reputation—shrinks to near irrelevance. Evercore expects it to represent just 1 percent of revenue by 2031, down from more than 20 percent last year. The satellite internet business, Starlink, is expected to grow substantially, reaching $140 billion in annual revenue by 2030 from roughly $11.4 billion currently, but even that becomes secondary to AI.
To achieve this transformation, SpaceX will need to spend money at a scale that strains comprehension. Both banks expect capital expenditures to balloon to more than $360 billion by 2030. Evercore projects the figure will nearly double again to $732 billion by 2031, with approximately $666 billion of that dedicated to AI infrastructure alone—more than fifty times what the company spent on AI last year. These are not incremental investments. They represent a fundamental reallocation of the company's resources away from its traditional business and toward competing in the artificial intelligence arms race that has consumed Silicon Valley.
The analysts constructing these models are comparing SpaceX to an unusual mix of companies: the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla, traditional space companies like Rocket Lab, and newer AI infrastructure firms like CoreWeave and Palantir. The comparison suggests they see SpaceX not as a space company that dabbles in AI, but as an AI company that inherited a space division. Whether that vision reflects reality or represents the kind of speculative excess that precedes market corrections remains an open question. SpaceX declined to comment on the projections. Goldman Sachs and Evercore declined as well. The company is scheduled to price its offering on June 11, with shares trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.
Notable Quotes
The AI division will grow from representing less than one-fifth of company revenue to 74 percent by 2031, while the space business shrinks to 1 percent of total revenue.— Evercore ISI research team projections
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
These projections assume the AI division grows a hundred times over. What's the actual product or service that's supposed to generate $300 billion in annual revenue?
The source doesn't specify. That's part of what makes this interesting—and risky. The banks are projecting the growth without laying out exactly what SpaceX is selling or to whom.
So they're pricing an IPO on a theory about what might happen, not on what's actually happening now.
Essentially, yes. The AI division generated $3.2 billion last year. The projections assume it becomes a hundred times larger. That's a massive leap, and the banks are asking investors to trust that it's achievable.
What about the capital spending? $732 billion by 2031 is extraordinary.
It is. And most of it—$666 billion—would go to AI infrastructure. That's the company betting everything on building the computational capacity to compete in whatever AI market they're targeting.
Does the source explain why SpaceX thinks it can dominate AI when companies like Nvidia and OpenAI already exist?
No. The source only mentions that analysts are comparing SpaceX to those companies as comparable valuations. It doesn't explain the competitive advantage or the actual strategy.
So what's the real story here?
The real story is that Wall Street is pricing a company based on a vision of the future that depends almost entirely on one division succeeding at something that isn't clearly defined. It's a bet, not a forecast.