US offers NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine as peace talks show progress

Donald Trump's envoys arrived in Berlin on Monday with an offer that would have seemed unthinkable months earlier: the United States would provide security guarantees to Ukraine modeled on NATO's collective defense commitments. The proposal emerged from talks between the American negotiators and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, marking a significant shift in how Washington might anchor Kyiv's future security without full NATO membership. Trump himself, calling into a dinner with the key officials involved, said the moment felt closer to resolution than at any point before. "We're trying to get it done," he told reporters at the White House. "We had numerous conversations with President Putin of Russia, and I think we're closer now than we have been ever."

The Berlin talks generated genuine optimism among European leaders for the first time since Russia's invasion began. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the possibility of a ceasefire had become "conceivable." Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, departing Berlin, described a shift in the room's atmosphere—for the first time, he felt everyone was "behaving like allies from one camp." He emphasized that American negotiators had explicitly committed to military response if Russia attacked Ukraine again, a clarity that seemed to matter deeply to Warsaw. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson acknowledged that security guarantees had become "clearer and more credible," though he cautioned that "many difficult questions remain, not least about territories and whether Russia wants peace at all."

Yet Moscow remained unmoved. Russia had not agreed to any of the changes discussed in Germany and showed no public indication it would. The territorial question—how much of Ukraine Russia would keep—remained the central sticking point. Zelenskyy, speaking after the talks, outlined his conditions for accepting any deal: if Putin rejected the proposals on the table, Kyiv would ask Washington for intensified sanctions against Russia and additional weapons, including long-range systems. He also signaled Ukrainian support for a ceasefire limited to energy infrastructure during the Christmas period, a narrow opening that suggested room for negotiation on the margins.

While diplomats talked in Berlin, the war continued. Ukrainian underwater drones, operated by the country's SBU security service and nicknamed "sub sea baby," struck and disabled a Russian Kilo-class attack submarine at the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. It was the first operation of its kind—hitting a submarine, the most difficult naval target. A Ukrainian navy spokesperson called it "another turning point" in the naval contest between the two countries. The strike demonstrated Kyiv's capacity to inflict significant damage on Russian military assets even as peace talks advanced.

Britain's MI6 chief, Blaise Metreweli, offered a darker reading of Putin's intentions. In her first public speech since taking office, she said the Russian leader was "dragging out negotiations" and testing the West with tactics that stayed "just below the threshold of war." Putin remained determined, she argued, to "subjugate Ukraine and harass NATO members." The assessment suggested that even if talks continued, the underlying Russian strategy had not fundamentally shifted.

Meanwhile, the financial architecture of the conflict was taking shape. The EU was preparing to decide this week whether to use €210 billion in frozen Russian assets to provide Ukraine with a loan for defense and economic survival. Russia's central bank responded by filing a claim for $230 billion in damages against Euroclear, the Belgian clearinghouse holding much of those frozen funds—a warning shot against their use. The EU had already imposed nineteen packages of sanctions, yet Russia had adapted to most of them, continuing to sell millions of barrels of oil to India and China at discounted prices.

European leaders, including Zelenskyy, were scheduled to meet in The Hague on Tuesday to launch an international claims commission aimed at compensating Ukraine for hundreds of billions of dollars in damage from Russian attacks and alleged war crimes. The conference, co-hosted by the Netherlands and the 46-nation Council of Europe, would bring together dozens of senior figures including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. The gathering represented an attempt to establish a legal and financial reckoning for the war's destruction, even as the fighting and negotiations continued in parallel.

US officials made clear that the security guarantee offer would not remain available indefinitely. The window for a deal, they suggested, was narrowing. European leaders stressed that whatever emerged from these talks would shape their continent's security for decades. The question now was whether Russia would engage seriously with any of it, or whether Putin would continue to test Western resolve while pursuing his stated objectives through military means.