Modi's public rebuke signals authoritarian allies turning against Putin

Vladimir Putin shifted uncomfortably in his seat, his foot tapping with visible irritation, as Narendra Modi delivered a public lecture on ending the war in Ukraine. The moment was striking precisely because it came from someone Putin had counted as an ally—a fellow authoritarian populist who had, until now, carefully avoided criticizing the Kremlin. "Every day that the war continues, humanity is, in effect, set back a step," Modi told him, calling for a move "from endless war to an end to the war, to a cessation of hostilities." The rebuke arrived at a moment when Putin's position was weakening in ways that mattered to the small circle of anti-democratic leaders who had grown accustomed to supporting one another.

Russia's war machine is consuming nearly 40 percent of the entire national economy, yet the gains are microscopic and the costs are staggering. More than 30,000 Russian soldiers are being killed each month—many of them conscripted from Russia's eastern ethnic minorities, sent to die in the Donbas for territory that shifts hands in brutal cycles. Capital is fleeing Russian banks. Ukrainian strikes on fuel infrastructure have created long queues at gas stations across the country. The Kremlin's threats toward Europe and NATO, including veiled nuclear hints, are beginning to look less like confidence and more like desperation.

Modi's public admonishment came a week after CIA director John Ratcliffe made a sudden trip to Moscow, and amid reports that the White House was preparing to send envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to Kyiv for their first visit. The pattern suggested something unusual: the populist bloc—Putin, Xi Jinping, Modi, and Donald Trump—was fracturing under pressure, or at least appearing to. Yet understanding why requires looking at what Modi has actually gained from Russia's war, which complicates any simple reading of moral awakening.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India has imported roughly a third of its crude oil from Russia, purchasing approximately $172 billion worth between 2022 and 2025—compared to just $2.3 billion in 2021. Indian refiners have bought this oil at a steep discount, refined it, and sold it to Western markets for substantial profit, generating an estimated $2 to $4 billion in extra annual earnings. Modi received Russia's highest honor, the Order of St Andrew, two years ago, and his government has described the relationship as a "special and privileged strategic partnership." By any measure, the war has been extraordinarily profitable for New Delhi.

So why the sudden public pressure on Putin? The answer lies in the fragility of the populist alliance itself. These leaders—Putin, Xi, Modi, and Trump—have maintained a strange coexistence as both allies and rivals, bound together by shared hostility to liberal democracy but ultimately loyal only to their own interests. Trump has called Modi a "great person" and "great friend," yet he has also criticized India's Russian oil purchases while simultaneously refusing to impose promised sanctions on New Delhi. Trump has simultaneously backed Putin's territorial demands in Ukraine, cut military aid to Kyiv, and attempted to extract mineral concessions from Ukraine like a mobster collecting protection money. He has threatened to invade Greenland and annex Canada. A Russian intelligence officer could hardly have designed a more useful asset.

But Trump is wounded. The midterm elections in November threaten his control of Congress, and he faces the prospect of spending his remaining presidency hamstrung by indictments. He has entangled America in an unpopular and unwinnable conflict with Iran. He promised peace in Ukraine and instead delivered weakness. He needs both Modi and Putin to help him navigate this political minefield, which means he cannot afford for either of them to collapse. If Putin's army in Ukraine suddenly implodes—a possibility that grows more real as Russian command and control deteriorates—or if his already-shattered economy shatters further, the entire arrangement falls apart. Modi needs the same thing: a functioning Putin to keep the band together, to maintain the alternative power structure that offers protection against Western pressure.

What looks like moral clarity—an authoritarian leader calling another to end a war—is actually a calculation about survival. The populist cabal is not held together by loyalty or shared ideology. It is held together by mutual need and mutual fear of what happens if any member falls. Modi's public rebuke is not a break with Putin. It is an attempt to save him from himself, to keep him functional enough to remain useful. The question now is whether Putin will listen, or whether his weakness will prove terminal regardless of what his allies want.