US Midterms Put Trump's Second Term to the Test as Democrats Eye House and Senate Gains

On November 3, American voters decide who will sit in the Capitol. Nobody's name is on the ballot for the White House, yet the day is being treated as a verdict on Donald Trump's second term, which has reached the halfway point with his approval ratings at a record low.

Midterms fall at the midpoint between presidential elections. Every one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives is up, each tied to a district apportioned by population. That is why Wyoming, large in area but thinly populated, has a single seat, while New Jersey, far smaller in area, has 12. House members serve two-year terms. In the Senate, which has two seats per state regardless of size, terms run six years, and roughly a third of the seats come up every two years. This year that means 35 seats, so not every state is choosing a senator. Voters in 36 states are also electing governors, mostly for four-year terms. Those offices matter because states settle questions ranging from abortion law to education to how elections are run.

J. Miles Coleman, an election analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, has described midterms as often a referendum on the president and the party in power. When voters are content, the president's party fares better; when they are mostly dissatisfied, it fares worse.

Republicans currently hold both chambers, but narrowly. The House stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent who usually votes with the Republicans, with two seats vacant. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 45, and two independents usually side with the Democrats. A 50-50 tie in the Senate would be broken by Vice President JD Vance.

The stakes follow from how Washington works. Turnout is typically lower in midterms than in presidential years, but the results shape the following years of policy. Despite the broad executive powers of the presidency, most federal decisions need Congress's approval before they can take effect. With both chambers in Republican hands, Trump finds it considerably easier to govern as he wishes. If Democrats win one or both, changing domestic or foreign policy becomes harder for him.

The House looks like the likelier prize for Democrats. They need to gain four seats to reach 218 and a majority. Coleman told CBS at the end of October that it would be a surprise if Democrats did not at least take the House. Of the 435 races, only a handful are still seen as toss-ups, including districts in Iowa, Virginia and Montana.

The Senate is harder, since Democrats also need a net gain of four seats there, but Texas has drawn attention. Polls put Democrat James Talarico level with Republican Ken Paxton. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, so a competitive race is notable in itself. Talarico has even picked up support from some members of the Bush family, the Republican dynasty that produced Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

The governor's races could produce a first. A Black woman has never been elected governor of a US state, and two contests offer the possibility. In Minnesota, Democrat Amy Klobuchar faces Black Republican Lisa DeMuth. DeMuth is unlikely to win: the state generally votes Democratic, and Klobuchar, who has served as the state's senator for almost two decades, is far better known. In Georgia, Black Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is running against Republican Rick Jackson, and the latest polls show a neck-and-neck race in which Bottoms has a realistic chance.

What to watch as results come in: the toss-up House districts in Iowa, Virginia and Montana, and whether Texas becomes a rare Democratic Senate pickup.