US Midterms Jolt Israel as Washington's Support Becomes a Political Liability

As the US midterm results came in, a columnist in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's biggest-selling newspaper, wrote that Israelis were looking at a "generational sea change." The paper is right-leaning. The columnist's verdict on the government was that Benjamin Netanyahu's team had sowed the wind and reaped the tsunami. Opposition leaders piled on, and one said the results showed how toxic Netanyahu had become among both Democrats and Republicans. The prime minister himself has said nothing publicly.

The relationship with Israel was a live issue in races across the United States. Many Democratic candidates sharply criticised Israel's conduct in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and the cost of the joint US-Israeli war on Iran weighed on many voters. President Donald Trump blamed the Iran War for the Republican rout, a war Netanyahu is widely seen as having pushed him to fight. Vice-President JD Vance went further, naming the US relationship with Israel as one of four main reasons voters abandoned the party.

That last point unsettled Israelis most, according to Yaakov Katz, an Israeli political and security analyst and the author of several books on Israeli defence. He said it might be worse than the midterm result itself, because Israelis already understood the Democrats' position. Now a senior Republican was saying voters wanted the party to change course on Israel, and Israelis, in his words, did not fully understand where that was heading. A US official with knowledge of the situation put it this way: Israel's political establishment grasped intellectually that things were shifting, but not how far or how fast.

The shock lands on a long period of confidence. Israel's sense of firm US military and diplomatic backing had survived growing anger among American voters, public insults from Trump aimed at Netanyahu, and disagreements over Israel's actions in Iran and Lebanon. Netanyahu regularly boasted of his closeness to Trump, citing "true friendship" and "unwavering support." Only nine months ago, Israelis watched their forces fight Iran alongside the US military, with "unprecedented" coordination a daily refrain from military spokespeople and politicians.

Against that backdrop, Trump said in a Fox News interview this week that he would end $3.8bn (£2.8bn) in US military aid to Israel two years earlier than planned. Israel's president called it "a bolt from the blue." Two days later, Yedioth Ahronoth's headline was "Nobody knows anything," with officials still unsure whether Trump was serious. Netanyahu's office responded several days after that, saying the shift from aid to partnership showed "the strength and sophistication" of the relationship.

The money itself matters less than the signal. US aid is under 10% of Israel's annual military budget. Katz argued that the announcement was the tip of a larger question covering future funding, arms sales and joint military projects, all of which a Democrat-controlled Congress could slow or stall, even without the two-thirds majority needed to override Trump. He noted that Israel's entire air force flies American-made aircraft and depends on American spare parts and weapons, and that the past three years showed how reliant it is on US missile defence. If those deliveries slow, he said, it changes what Israel can withstand in a war. He also expects tougher US demands over Gaza and Lebanon, and a requirement not to undermine any agreement with Iran.

The US official, who was not authorised to speak on the record, predicted change in scale rather than kind: more willingness to criticise Israel when warranted, with the bedrock relationship intact. Washington's public posture so far reflects some of that continuity. US ambassador Mike Huckabee signalled little movement in core positions, including on the West Bank occupation, and called sanctions imposed by other countries "irrational." Israel's UN ambassador, Danny Danon, said Trump would be in office for two more years and Israel could "feel good" about the US Security Council veto, but warned that criticism from both parties would make things "harder for us."

The timing is awkward. Israel's own parliamentary elections, less than two weeks ago, left neither government nor opposition with a clear majority. The president is consulting on whether Netanyahu or the centrist Gadi Eisenkot gets the first chance to form a coalition. Eisenkot pledged to renew and deepen the US partnership on bipartisan foundations. Yair Lapid, of the same bloc, said Israel should return to the rule that served it for seventy years until 2015, when Netanyahu addressed Congress against President Obama's Iran deal: Israel does not choose sides in America. The US official said that before the midterms, dropping Netanyahu's two far-right ministers might have helped, but the problem is now bigger than that. Government supporters counter that the moment demands stability and Netanyahu's deep knowledge of Washington, with an Israel Hayom writer warning against endless campaigns.

Whoever leads the next government may find Washington asking for more than words, while Netanyahu, once the whisperer of Washington's elite, stays silent.