US Midterms Could Push Israel's Divided Opposition to Unite Against Netanyahu

Within days of the American election, Yair Lapid, one of Israel's most prominent opposition politicians, was telling his countrymen to stop shouting that America is lost. The incoming Democratic lawmakers, he said, are not against Israel. They are mainly against Benjamin Netanyahu, and for them anything connected to the prime minister is toxic. Declaring the relationship dead, Lapid argued, is the easy option, because it spares you the work of repairing it.

The Democrats' sweep of Congress may make that repair harder, but it may also give Israel's splintered opposition a reason to finally join forces. Netanyahu has tied himself so closely to Donald Trump's Republicans that unseating him now carries more urgency for his rivals. For decades, nurturing bipartisan ties was the cornerstone of Israeli foreign policy, given how much military and diplomatic support Israel gets from Washington. Netanyahu abandoned that commitment to bet on one party and one president. The opposition had always called that a misjudgment. By the end of this week, they were calling it dangerous.

Lapid proposed a plan to rebuild trust in the US, including a charm offensive by officials of a prospective new government. It drew a quick rebuke from Brad Lander, the New York congressman-elect. Lander is a Democrat, is Jewish, and describes himself as a liberal Zionist. Last month he was detained in the occupied West Bank while joining Palestinians trying to harvest olives. Replying directly, he wrote that he had won a seat in Congress the night before and cared about Israel, and that Lapid was not listening to American voters, Jewish and non-Jewish. Americans, he said, are not starving for a barnstorming tour but hungry to see respect for international law and human rights.

Lander also pointed to the case of Abed Abu Shehada, a journalist and Palestinian citizen of Israel. According to reports, 15 masked security officials took him from his home in a night raid without an arrest warrant. His lawyers say interrogators have asked him only about a podcast interview with a public figure. Lander linked the case to the ICE system of detention without charge, based on secret evidence and designed to intimidate and chill speech, which he said American voters had rejected. On Friday he and two other incoming Jewish members of Congress, Daniel Bliss and Scott Wiener, wrote to Israel's ambassador in Washington demanding Abu Shehada's immediate release. Lander called detaining a reporter over an interview a violation of international law, and noted it comes as senior Israeli officials try to delegitimize the participation of Palestinian citizens in Israel's recent elections.

Angry Democrats are not the only problem. The wounded Republican establishment quickly looked abroad for explanations of its voters' fury. JD Vance, the vice-president, listed "our relationship with Israel" among the reasons. On election day, Trump made a last-ditch appeal to voters by pledging to cut off $4bn (£3bn) in annual military aid to Israel. The announcement caused panic in Israel's defence establishment. One official told Channel 12 that the air force commander might slit his wrists on hearing it, and asked where Israel would find 15 billion shekels a year. Netanyahu only responded on Friday, when his office cast the cut as a joint decision reflecting Israel's economic strength and a "move from aid to partnership".

Netanyahu has long presented his Trump ties, fluent English and American experience as proof that he alone has the standing to guarantee Israel's security. After Tuesday, many Israelis see him differently. Writing in the daily Ma'ariv, Ben Caspit declared that Israel is losing America, not gradually but all at once, in an avalanche and a collapse of the foundation of its defence doctrine. It is not a decree of fate, he wrote, but a decree of Netanyahu.

Some advocates for change see an opening. The opposition won 67 of the 120 Knesset seats, but more than a quarter of those went to Palestinian citizens of Israel, and some Jewish opposition parties have ruled out sitting with them. Nadav Tamir, a former senior Israeli diplomat in the US and now executive director of J Street Israel, argued in the Times of Israel that US administrations have too long equated support for Israel with blind support for its government. That consensus is cracking, he wrote, though most lawmakers in both parties still see Israel as a key ally. A Congress less willing to offer automatic alignment, he suggested, might offer more meaningful support for breaking the cycle of wars.

What to watch now is whether the opposition parties can bridge the question of sitting with Arab-backed blocs and turn their 67 seats into a government.