In the last days before the Munich Security Conference, the old stage of transatlantic security gathers under a shadow it cannot quite name: whether Russia will cross into Ukraine. Russia, which has sent a delegation to nearly every such gathering for years, has chosen an empty chair this time, a quiet signal that the channels of dialogue between East and West have thinned. The forum, long called Davos for defence, becomes a place where the West tries to speak with one voice and where, as so often, the most consequential decisions may be made in corridors rather than on the podium.
Ukraine Standoff Dominates Munich Security Conference as Russia Stays Away
Russia's chair will be empty in Munich
Mark
Why does Russia skipping Munich matter so much?
Mimi
Because it hasn't happened in years. Lavrov came even during the upheaval before Crimea's annexation. Moscow says the forum is biased toward the West.
Mark
So is it a protest or a signal?
Luke
The Kremlin's stated reason is bias. Schwarzer's reading, that Russia has little interest in dialogue, is her interpretation, not something Moscow said.
Mimi
Fair. What's documented is the absence and the explanation Zakharova gave.
Mark
Biden says an invasion could come within days. How solid is that?
Luke
It's his assessment, citing indications and a pretext being prepared. The report doesn't show the evidence, and the Kremlin accuses him of stoking tensions.
Mimi
The exchange of fire in eastern Ukraine is the concrete event behind it, though who started it isn't established here.
Mark
What else is happening there?
Mimi
Sahel and Iran, plus the G7 ministers meeting on the sidelines. Franke says the real decisions often surface months later.
Luke
Which means we can't yet say what Munich will actually produce.
Der Puls
- Russia's empty chair at Munich breaks a long tradition of attendance and sends a jolt through the conference halls.
- Biden's warning of a pretext for invasion, and Moscow's threats of unspecified countermeasures, have pushed tension to a sharp edge.
- Western leaders gather to present unity, with Zelenskiy, Harris and Stoltenberg crowding the agenda around Ukraine.
- Behind closed doors, a G7 foreign ministers' session on Ukraine is being positioned as the place where real choices may take shape.
- The outcome is still open: no one yet knows whether the warnings will harden into war or be pulled back by diplomacy.
In the last days before the Munich Security Conference, the old stage of transatlantic security gathers under a shadow it cannot quite name: whether Russia will cross into Ukraine. Russia, which has sent a delegation to nearly every such gathering for years, has chosen an empty chair this time, a quiet signal that the channels of dialogue between East and West have thinned. The forum, long called Davos for defence, becomes a place where the West tries to speak with one voice and where, as so often, the most consequential decisions may be made in corridors rather than on the podium.
On Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris landed in Munich, one of the first arrivals for a conference that opens Friday at the Bayerischer Hof. This year the gathering, nicknamed Davos for defence, is shadowed by one question: whether Russia is about to invade Ukraine.
One delegation will be missing. The Kremlin announced it would send no one, the first Russian no-show in years. Even during the Ukrainian revolution that preceded the annexation of Crimea, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended. Moscow's spokesperson said the forum had lost its inclusivity and objectivity. Daniela Schwarzer of the Belfer Center read the absence as a sign that Russia has little interest in open dialogue about European security.
The warnings came just before the meeting. President Biden said Russia planned to invade within days and was preparing a pretext, after an exchange of fire in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin accused him of stoking tensions and threatened military-technical measures.
Ukraine is not the only crisis on the agenda. Saturday's roundtables cover the Sahel, where France is withdrawing from Mali, and the revival of Iran's nuclear deal. The chairman, Wolfgang Ischinger, said he could not recall so many overlapping crises.
Much of the real work may happen off the main stage. A G7 foreign ministers' session on Ukraine is one such sideline, and analysts note that the true outcomes of Munich often become clear only months later. The weekend also marks a handover, as Christoph Heusgen prepares to succeed Ischinger after fourteen years. What to watch now is the G7 session and whatever emerges from the sidelines, with Russia's chair empty.
On Thursday, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris landed at Munich International Airport, one of the first arrivals for the Munich Security Conference. The three-day gathering opens Friday, February 18, at the Bayerischer Hof hotel, and this year it will be dominated by a single question: whether Russia is about to invade Ukraine.
The event is nicknamed "Davos for defence." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Harris and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg are among those attending. Major Western powers have been warning that the Kremlin looks close to launching an invasion of its former Soviet neighbour.
One delegation will be missing. The Kremlin said last week it would send no one to Munich, the first Russian no-show in years. Even at the height of the Ukrainian revolution that preceded Russia's annexation of Crimea, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov came. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the forum had grown biased toward the West, "losing its inclusivity, objectivity."
Daniela Schwarzer, a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center who is attending, read the absence as a sign that Russia has limited interest in dialogue, particularly an open conversation about European security. She described the conference as a chance for the political West to show unity toward Russia and toward authoritarian regimes more broadly.
The warnings arrived just ahead of the meeting. On Thursday, President Joe Biden said there was every indication Russia planned to invade Ukraine within days and was preparing a pretext to justify it. That followed an exchange of fire in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and pro-Moscow rebels. The Kremlin accused Biden of stoking tensions and threatened unspecified "military-technical measures."
Ukraine is not the only crisis on the agenda. Saturday, the main day of events, includes roundtables on the fragile security situation in the Sahel and on reviving Iran's 2015 nuclear deal. Both flared this week: France announced it will withdraw troops from Mali after almost a decade fighting Islamist insurgents, and reports emerged of a new U.S.-Iranian deal taking shape. Conference Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger told reporters he could not recall a time with "so many overlapping crises."
The main program begins Friday at 1230 GMT with speeches from U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Panels over the weekend will also cover cryptocurrency, climate change and the pandemic. The conference is scaled back from pre-pandemic editions, but Schwarzer noted it is the first physical meeting of the international security and foreign policy community in two years, and she said in-person conversation is key to building trust.
Much of the real work may happen off the main stage, said Ulrike Franke of the European Council on Foreign Relations. A meeting of Group of Seven foreign ministers on the Ukraine crisis is one such sideline session. Franke said important issues are settled behind the scenes, and that it is often only months later, when something is announced, that people realise what really happened in Munich.
The weekend also marks a handover. After 14 years as chairman, Ischinger is chairing for the last time; Christoph Heusgen, former Chancellor Angela Merkel's foreign and security policy adviser, is set to succeed him. What to watch now is the G7 session and whatever emerges from the sidelines, with Russia's chair empty.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
The conference is an occasion for the political West to show unity vis-a-vis Russia and vis-a-vis authoritarian regimes more generally.— Daniela Schwarzer, Belfer Center senior fellow
Ischinger said he could not recall a time with so many overlapping crises.— Wolfgang Ischinger, conference chairman
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