Two days of talks, one in Oslo and one in St Petersburg, have left the war in Ukraine no closer to an end, and the people shaping it seem to be waiting on different clocks. Moscow appears comfortable with delay, sensing both battlefield advantage as winter approaches and a Washington eager to deal rather than to press. Yet the quiet hope now gathering around a possible meeting of the world's three great powers in China suggests that the next chapter may be written less by Ukraine's negotiators than by the superpowers who have always decided such matters.
Rosenberg: US Diplomatic Push Offers Little Hope for Imminent Ukraine Peace
Putin has shown little desire to share a table with Zelensky, unless it's in Moscow
Mark
Two days of talks, in Oslo and St Petersburg. Why does the analysis say so little came of it?
Mimi
Because the Russian side's own words were underwhelming. Yuri Ushakov, who was in the room in St Petersburg, said there wasn't much useful in what Witkoff relayed from Oslo.
Mark
Yet Witkoff and Norway's prime minister sounded positive.
Mimi
Norway's prime minister called the Oslo talks good and constructive. Witkoff said there is still important work to do. Those are measured statements, not claims of a breakthrough.
Luke
Worth separating what's on record from what's interpretation. Ushakov's comment is a quote. That Putin feels no pressure is the Russia Editor's reading, not something Putin said.
Mark
What is that reading based on?
Mimi
Ukraine's strained air defences, the approaching winter, and recent US moves: paused sanctions on some Moscow targets, a deal to buy Russian diesel, and sharp criticism of Zelensky.
Luke
Fair, but the claim that Putin sees winter as a chance to pound Ukraine into submission is the editor's inference about his thinking. We don't have confirmation of intent.
Mark
And the Apec meeting?
Mimi
It's described as something that may well happen, not as scheduled. Some Russian commentators already call it the New Yalta.
Luke
Right, and that nickname comes from commentators, not officials. Whether the meeting happens, and what it would produce, is unknown.
Mimi
What's firm is the Kremlin's position: trilateral talks perhaps in Abu Dhabi next month, but only at technical level.
The Pulse
- Oslo and St Petersburg diplomacy ended with the Ukraine war no visibly nearer a conclusion, and the mood is stalled rather than hopeful.
- Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov dismissed the St Petersburg talks as offering little useful for resolving the crisis, despite Witkoff's upbeat framing.
- Putin shows no sense of pressure, buoyed by strained Ukrainian air defences, incoming winter, and Trump's sanctions pauses and diesel deal.
- Moscow only offers technical-level trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi next month, refusing a leaders' table unless it is held in Moscow.
- A possible Putin-Trump-Xi meeting on the APEC fringes in China could mark a shift toward great-power dealmaking, with some in Russia already calling it a 'New Yalta'.
Two days of talks, one in Oslo and one in St Petersburg, have left the war in Ukraine no closer to an end, and the people shaping it seem to be waiting on different clocks. Moscow appears comfortable with delay, sensing both battlefield advantage as winter approaches and a Washington eager to deal rather than to press. Yet the quiet hope now gathering around a possible meeting of the world's three great powers in China suggests that the next chapter may be written less by Ukraine's negotiators than by the superpowers who have always decided such matters.
Two days of diplomacy, one in Oslo and one in St Petersburg, ended with the war in Ukraine no clearer to conclusion. The BBC's Russia Editor reads the signals as a sign that President Putin feels no pressure to stop fighting.
The Oslo leg brought Ukrainian President Zelensky together with Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy, and European representatives. The idea of a leaders' trilateral meeting was floated, with hopes that Witkoff's trip to Moscow might open the way. Russia has offered little encouragement, however, and the Kremlin says it may resume only technical-level talks in Abu Dhabi next month.
In St Petersburg, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov told Putin's side that there was not much useful for resolving the crisis, and gave a vague answer about how close peace might be. The Russia Editor sees a Kremlin comfortable with delay: Ukraine's air defences are strained, winter is approaching, and Trump has paused some sanctions and voiced sharp criticism of Zelensky.
From Moscow, MP Evgeny Popov made the position plain: Trump is the only Western leader working for peace, and of course Russia wants peace on its own terms. Attention now turns to a possible Putin-Trump-Xi meeting on the APEC fringes in China next month, which some in Russia already call a 'New Yalta'. After nearly five years of war, such a summit would place Putin at the top table of world politics, and the Abu Dhabi talks and that meeting are the next things to watch.
Two days of diplomacy, one in Oslo and one in St Petersburg, have ended with the war in Ukraine no visibly closer to a conclusion. That is the assessment of the BBC's Russia Editor, who writes that President Vladimir Putin does not appear to feel any pressure to stop.
The first leg came on Tuesday in the Norwegian capital. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy, along with European representatives. Norway's prime minister called the talks good and constructive. The idea of a trilateral meeting at leaders' level was raised there, and the hope was that Witkoff's onward trip to Russia might open the way for Putin, Zelensky and Trump to sit down together and agree an end to the fighting.
The Russian side has offered little encouragement. Putin has shown scant appetite for sharing a table with Zelensky, unless that table is in Moscow. The Kremlin says it may be willing to resume trilateral talks next month in Abu Dhabi, but only at the technical level. Witkoff himself acknowledged on X that there is still important work to do, while insisting that Trump remains committed to seeing the war end.
The Russia Editor singles out a statement from Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy aide, who took part in the St Petersburg talks. Ushakov said Witkoff briefed Putin on the Oslo discussions and on what Witkoff described as new approaches from the Europeans and Kyiv. The Kremlin adviser was plainly unimpressed. In terms of resolving the Ukraine crisis, he said, there was not much there that was useful. Asked later by Russian state television about the prospects for peace, he said he did not know how close things were getting, but that they were moving in that direction. The editor's verdict on that answer: rather vague.
The analysis lays out why Putin may feel comfortable. Ukraine's air defences are under severe strain. Winter is coming, and the Russian leader may see the cold as a chance to batter Ukraine into submission. And the White House is occupied by a president who clearly wants a bigger, better and more profitable relationship with Moscow. In recent days Trump has paused some sanctions on Russia, agreed to buy Russian diesel and voiced sharp criticism of Zelensky. All of that, the editor writes, eases the pressure on the Kremlin.
Russian MP and TV anchor Evgeny Popov put the view from Moscow plainly. Right now, he said, Trump is the only leader in the Western world doing something for peace. When the editor asked whether that meant a peace on Russia's terms, and whether that was what Moscow wanted, Popov answered: of course.
A three-way meeting of Putin, Zelensky and Trump may not be close, but another summit could be. Next month in China, Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping may well meet on the fringes of the Apec summit. Some commentators in Russia are already calling it the New Yalta, a nod to the 1945 conference where Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt planned the political and territorial reorganisation of post-war Europe. Popov said Russia, China and the United States are the only superpowers in the world, and that it would be good for everyone if their leaders met in China.
After nearly five years of war, the editor concludes, such a meeting would put Putin exactly where he wants to be: at the top table of global politics. The Apec fringe in China next month, and whether the Abu Dhabi technical talks go ahead, are the next things to watch.
Notable Quotes
In terms of resolving the Ukraine crisis, there wasn't much there that was useful.— Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy aide
Right now Trump is the only leader in the Western world who is doing something for peace.— Evgeny Popov, Russian MP and TV anchor
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