On a May evening in Alberta, a province long shaped by the rhythms of its countryside and the restlessness of its cities, voters delivered a familiar verdict with an unfamiliar undertone. The United Conservative Party, led by Danielle Smith, was projected to govern with a majority, carried by rural towns and small centres that have long anchored its strength. Yet the night also revealed a province divided in its tempers: Calgary, the party's historic heartland, wavered, and the NDP's advance there hints at a public weighing promises about taxes, health care and trust against one another. The c
UCP Wins Alberta Majority as NDP Gains Ground in Calgary Strongholds
Rural Alberta carried the UCP, but Calgary showed cracks
Mark
So the UCP wins a majority. Why isn't this just a repeat of 2019?
Mimi
Because of Calgary. The NDP won Calgary-Currie, where Nicholas Milliken, a cabinet minister, lost to Janet Eremenko, and other ministers were in tight races.
Luke
Worth being precise, though. The report says Shandro and Copping faced stiff challenges. It doesn't say they lost. Only Milliken's defeat is stated as a result.
Mark
And the rural side?
Mimi
That's what carried it. Polls suggested about 40 seats from rural areas and smaller centres, with 44 needed.
Luke
Note that's a polling expectation, not a result. The 40 figure is an estimate.
Mark
What about the record advance vote?
Mimi
758,540 votes, beating 2019's 700,000-plus, and this happened during wildfires with ten communities under evacuation orders.
Luke
Strong turnout was expected, but final turnout isn't in this report. And we don't know the final seat count either.
Mark
What does Johnson's case tell us?
Mimi
Smith said she wouldn't sit in caucus, then spoke of redemption and second chances. It's unresolved.
Luke
Right, nothing here says what will happen. That's open.
Il Polso
- The UCP is projected to clear the 44-seat threshold, but only after a long, nervous wait for results.
- Calgary turned into a battleground as the NDP unseated cabinet minister Nicholas Milliken and pressed several UCP heavyweights in tight races.
- Record advance voting and ten communities under evacuation orders stretched Elections Alberta to set up mobile stations and special ballot options.
- Smith now faces the immediate test of delivering a tax referendum pledge, easing family doctor shortages and resolving the caucus status of Jennifer Johnson.
On a May evening in Alberta, a province long shaped by the rhythms of its countryside and the restlessness of its cities, voters delivered a familiar verdict with an unfamiliar undertone. The United Conservative Party, led by Danielle Smith, was projected to govern with a majority, carried by rural towns and small centres that have long anchored its strength. Yet the night also revealed a province divided in its tempers: Calgary, the party's historic heartland, wavered, and the NDP's advance there hints at a public weighing promises about taxes, health care and trust against one another. The count itself, slowed by hand-tallying on a day of record advance voting and wildfire evacuations, reminded everyone that democratic results arrive at the pace of careful human work.
For more than two hours after Alberta's polls closed on Monday, the province waited. Elections Alberta explained that the day's ballots were being counted by hand and asked for patience, and then The Canadian Press projected a United Conservative Party majority under Danielle Smith.
The UCP won on the strength of rural Alberta, where its support held firm. But the night was not a clean victory. The NDP made real gains in Calgary, the party's traditional stronghold, unseating cabinet minister Nicholas Milliken and putting pressure on several other senior UCP figures in close contests. Smith kept her own seat, and Rachel Notley held Edmonton-Strathcona while her party looked set to sweep the capital.
For the NDP, the path was steep: it needed to hold Edmonton, win most of Calgary and unseat many UCP incumbents. Turnout, meanwhile, was historic, with a record number of advance votes cast even as wildfires forced evacuations and election officials adapted with alternate voting sites and mobile stations.
The campaign had centred on the cost of living and the strain on health care, from doctor shortages to long emergency room waits. Both leaders promised to protect public health care, while offering sharply different tax plans. Trust, too, weighed heavily, shaped by Smith's past comments and an ethics finding during the campaign, and by Notley's more favourable personal ratings.
One question remains open: Jennifer Johnson, who won Lacombe-Ponoka after apologizing for past remarks, has been told she would not sit in caucus, though Smith has since spoken of redemption. How the new government handles that decision will be among its first tests.
More than two hours after Alberta's polls closed at 8 p.m. on Monday, no winner had been declared, and Elections Alberta felt the need to explain why. In a statement, the agency said it saw no issues but understood that people were keen for results, and that processing takes time because the day's ballots were being counted by hand. Then The Canadian Press made its projection: a United Conservative Party majority government.
Leader Danielle Smith and her party won on a wave of rural support, but the night was not a clean sweep. The NDP made inroads in Calgary, the traditional conservative stronghold. Smith won her own seat in Brooks-Medicine Hat, and several cabinet ministers were returned too: Education Minister Adriana LaGrange, Agriculture Minister Nate Horner, Indigenous Relations Minister Rick Wilson and Affordability and Utilities Minister Matt Jones. NDP Leader Rachel Notley won Edmonton-Strathcona for a fifth time, and her party was on track to sweep the capital.
Calgary was where the NDP pushed hardest. Nicholas Milliken, the cabinet minister responsible for mental health and addiction, was defeated in Calgary-Currie by the NDP's Janet Eremenko. Justice Minister Tyler Shandro faced a stiff challenge in Calgary-Acadia, and Health Minister Jason Copping did the same in Calgary-Varsity. Smith's two deputy premiers were also in tough races: Kaycee Madu in Edmonton-South West and Nathan Neudorf in Lethbridge-East.
The arithmetic had been difficult for the NDP from the start. The party needed to flip 20 seats in the 87-seat legislature to win. In 2019, under then-leader Jason Kenney, the UCP took 63 seats to the NDP's 24. Polls suggested the UCP would keep near total dominance in rural areas and smaller centres, giving it a cushion of about 40 seats toward the 44 needed for a majority. For the NDP to win, it had to hold Edmonton, flip most of Calgary, find help in smaller cities and unseat scores of UCP incumbents.
Turnout was expected to be strong. Advance polls set a record with 758,540 votes cast, passing the previous record of more than 700,000 in 2019. The campaign also unfolded during a record-breaking spring for wildfires, and ten communities were under evacuation orders on election day. Elections Alberta set up alternate voting locations for displaced residents, added evacuation as an eligible reason to vote by special ballot, and placed mobile voting stations in evacuation centres.
The month-long campaign was dominated by the economy and health care. Albertans are dealing with high prices for consumer goods, a shortage of family doctors and long emergency room waits. Smith promised to keep Alberta the lowest-tax jurisdiction in Canada, to legislate a referendum before any personal or corporate income tax increase, and to cut taxes for people earning more than $60,000 a year, at a cost of $1 billion annually. The NDP also promised to keep the lowest-tax status, end the tax on small businesses and raise the corporate rate to 11 per cent from eight per cent, which it said would fund health and education while balancing the books. It also promised legislation to counter UCP policies that raised utility, auto insurance, fee and tuition costs. Both leaders pledged to preserve public health care and expand primary care teams, so more people can reach a family doctor instead of crowding emergency wards.
Trust was a central issue. Polls showed Notley viewed more favourably than her party, and the reverse for Smith. Smith was dogged by past comments comparing people who took the COVID-19 vaccine to credulous followers of Adolf Hitler. Mid-campaign, the province's ethics commissioner reported that she undermined the rule of law by pressuring her justice minister to end the criminal case against a COVID-19 protester.
One result remains unsettled. Jennifer Johnson won Lacombe-Ponoka for the UCP after apologizing during the campaign for last year's comments comparing transgender students to feces. Smith had said Johnson would not sit in the UCP caucus, but later said she believes in redemption and second chances. Johnson's place in the caucus is the first question the new government has to answer.
Citazioni salienti
We are not seeing any issues at this time, but understand that people are keen to see the results.— Elections Alberta
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