On a May night in Alberta, the province's voters gave the United Conservative Party another majority, though not without a reckoning. The count stretched long past the closing of the polls, and when the call came it rested mostly on the quiet confidence of rural ridings, while the cities, Calgary above all, began to stir with a different possibility. Beneath the arithmetic lay older questions about trust, about who can be believed, and about how a people weighs a steady hand against a changing wind.
UCP Secures Majority in Alberta as NDP Gains Ground in Calgary
Ten communities were under evacuation orders from a record wildfire season, and displaced residents were given alternate ways to vote.
No winner had been called more than two hours after polls closed
Mark
The UCP won a majority, but the headline seems to be Calgary. Why?
Mimi
Because Calgary was supposed to be safe. The NDP needed 20 flips, and early results showed promise in ridings outside the UCP's southern core. Nicholas Milliken lost Calgary-Currie to Janet Eremenko.
Luke
Worth saying that Shandro and Copping were described as facing stiff challenges. The source doesn't tell us how those races ended.
Mark
So how big was the cushion in the countryside?
Mimi
Polls suggested up to about 40 seats from rural areas and smaller centres, against 44 needed. In 2019 it was 63 seats to 24.
Luke
Careful, though. That 40 is a polling-based projection, not a result. And the majority itself is a Canadian Press projection from this report, not a final seat count.
Mark
What did voters actually choose between on policy?
Mimi
Both promised to keep Alberta lowest-tax. Smith pitched a referendum law before tax hikes and cuts for earners over $60,000. The NDP wanted corporate tax at 11 per cent from eight.
Luke
The $1 billion cost is the UCP plan's figure. The NDP's claim about balancing the books is also its own.
Mark
And the Jennifer Johnson situation?
Mimi
Smith said she wouldn't sit in caucus, then spoke of redemption and second chances. It's unresolved.
Luke
Right, and nobody here says what Smith will decide. That's still unknown.
Il Polso
- The result hung unresolved for more than two hours after polls closed, and the waiting itself carried tension through the province.
- The NDP needed to flip 20 seats in Calgary and Edmonton, and early returns showed cabinet ministers in the city suddenly vulnerable.
- A record wildfire spring pushed ten communities under evacuation orders, forcing special ballots and mobile voting stations into evacuation centres.
- Smith secured the UCP majority on rural strength, yet a contested seat, Lacombe-Ponoka, leaves her caucus facing an unsettled question about Jennifer Johnson.
- The promised tax referendum law and the handling of Johnson's status now set the province's next course.
On a May night in Alberta, the province's voters gave the United Conservative Party another majority, though not without a reckoning. The count stretched long past the closing of the polls, and when the call came it rested mostly on the quiet confidence of rural ridings, while the cities, Calgary above all, began to stir with a different possibility. Beneath the arithmetic lay older questions about trust, about who can be believed, and about how a people weighs a steady hand against a changing wind.
More than two hours after Alberta's polls closed, no winner had been declared. Elections Alberta said it was working as fast as it could and that a hand count was underway. When the call came, the United Conservative Party had won a majority under Danielle Smith, carried by rural support, though the NDP made real inroads in Calgary, long a conservative stronghold.
The night turned on Calgary. The NDP needed to flip 20 seats in the 87-seat legislature, and early results showed promise in ridings outside the UCP's core in the city's south end. Cabinet ministers faced stiff challenges, and Mental health minister Nicholas Milliken lost Calgary-Currie to the NDP's Janet Eremenko. Smith herself held her seat, and Rachel Notley took Edmonton-Strathcona for a fifth time.
Record advance polling and a record wildfire spring shaped the vote. Ten communities were under evacuation orders on election day, so Elections Alberta added evacuation as a reason to vote by special ballot, opened alternate locations and placed mobile stations in evacuation centres.
The campaign centred on the economy and health care, with high prices, a shortage of family doctors and long emergency waits on voters' minds. The parties split on tax: the UCP promised a referendum before any income tax increase, while the NDP proposed raising the corporate rate from eight to 11 per cent to fund health and education. Trust mattered as much as policy, since Smith carried the weight of past remarks and an ethics report, while Notley was viewed more favourably than her party.
One question remains open. Jennifer Johnson won Lacombe-Ponoka after apologizing for comments about transgender students. Smith first said Johnson would not sit in caucus, then spoke of redemption and second chances. Johnson's place in the caucus, and whether the tax referendum law advances, are the first things to watch.
More than two hours after Alberta's polls closed at 8 p.m., no winner had been declared. Elections Alberta said it was working as fast as it could, that it saw no problems, and that a hand count of the day's ballots was under way. When the call finally came, the Canadian Press projected a United Conservative Party majority government, led by Danielle Smith and carried by rural support, though the NDP made real inroads in Calgary, long a conservative stronghold.
Smith won her own seat in Brooks-Medicine Hat. Several cabinet members were returned too: Education Minister Adriana LaGrange, Agriculture Minister Nate Horner, Indigenous Relations Minister Rick Wilson and Affordability and Utilities Minister Matt Jones. NDP Leader Rachel Notley won Edmonton-Strathcona for a fifth time, and her party was on track to sweep the capital.
Calgary was where the night got interesting. To form government, the NDP needed to flip 20 seats in the 87-seat legislature, and early results showed promise in several Calgary ridings outside the UCP's core support in the city's south end. Mental health and addictions minister Nicholas Milliken lost Calgary-Currie to the NDP's Janet Eremenko. Justice Minister Tyler Shandro in Calgary-Acadia and Health Minister Jason Copping in Calgary-Varsity faced stiff challenges, as did Smith's two deputy premiers, Kaycee Madu in Edmonton-South West and Nathan Neudorf in Lethbridge-East.
The arithmetic favoured the UCP going in. Under Jason Kenney in 2019 the party won 63 seats to the NDP's 24. Polls suggested it would keep near-total dominance in rural areas and smaller centres, giving it a cushion of roughly 40 seats toward the 44 needed for a majority. The NDP, trying to win back the majority it lost in 2019, would have had to hold Edmonton, flip most of Calgary, find help in smaller cities and unseat scores of incumbents, cabinet ministers among them.
Turnout was expected to be strong. Advance polls set a record of 758,540 votes, beating the old mark of just over 700,000 in 2019. The campaign also ran alongside a record-breaking wildfire spring, and ten communities were under evacuation orders on election day. Elections Alberta added evacuation as an eligible reason to vote by special ballot, set up alternate voting locations for displaced residents and placed mobile stations in evacuation centres.
The month-long campaign centred on the economy and health care. Albertans were dealing with high prices, a shortage of family doctors and long emergency room waits. Smith promised to keep Alberta the lowest-tax jurisdiction in Canada, to legislate a referendum before any personal or corporate income tax increase, and to cut taxes for people earning more than $60,000 at a cost of $1 billion a year. The NDP also pledged to keep the lowest-tax status, proposing to end the small business tax and raise the corporate rate from eight to 11 per cent, which it said would fund health and education while balancing the books. It also promised legislation to counter UCP policies that raised utility, auto insurance, fee and tuition costs. Both leaders vowed to protect the public health system and expand primary care teams, with physicians working alongside nurses and therapists, so more people could reach a family doctor instead of crowding emergency wards.
Trust shaped the race. Polls showed Notley viewed more favourably than her party, and the reverse for Smith. Smith was dogged by past remarks comparing people who took the COVID-19 vaccine to credulous followers of Adolf Hitler, and by a mid-campaign report from the province's ethics commissioner concluding she undermined the rule of law by pressuring her justice minister to end the criminal case of a COVID-19 protester.
One result remains unsettled: Jennifer Johnson won Lacombe-Ponoka after apologizing during the campaign for last year's comments comparing transgender students to feces. Smith said Johnson would not sit in the UCP caucus, then, when asked later, said she believes in redemption and second chances. Johnson's place in the caucus, and whether the promised tax referendum law moves forward, are the first things to watch.
Citazioni salienti
We are not seeing any issues at this time, but understand that people are keen to see the results.— Elections Alberta statement
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