Cuba wants a deal desperately—it's just a matter of time
Ao longo de décadas, a relação entre Washington e Havana permaneceu suspensa entre a hostilidade declarada e a negociação silenciosa. Agora, com o conflito com o Irã ainda em curso, o presidente Trump sinalizou que Cuba pode ser o próximo alvo de ação militar americana, descrevendo o governo cubano como desesperado por um acordo e o fim do regime como a 'cereja no topo' de sua agenda de política externa. A declaração não surge no vácuo: bloqueios econômicos já estão em curso, canais diplomáticos discretos foram abertos, e Cuba respondeu alinhando-se publicamente ao Irã — um gesto que redefine as apostas no Caribe e revela o quanto essa crise ainda está por se desenrolar.
- Trump anunciou publicamente, em um evento na Casa Branca, que Cuba pode ser o próximo alvo militar dos EUA após a resolução do conflito com o Irã — transformando uma ambição histórica em ameaça imediata.
- Washington já intensificou a pressão econômica sobre a ilha, bloqueando o fornecimento de petróleo a Cuba em uma tentativa de dobrar a liderança cubana antes de qualquer confronto direto.
- Nos bastidores, o secretário de Estado Marco Rubio mantém contato com um neto de Raúl Castro, sugerindo que a diplomacia e a coerção caminham lado a lado na estratégia americana.
- Cuba respondeu com desafio aberto: o chanceler Bruno Rodríguez transmitiu ao Irã solidariedade oficial da ilha, sinalizando que Havana não pretende ceder sob pressão.
- A combinação de ameaças militares, bloqueio econômico, diplomacia paralela e alinhamento cubano com o Irã cria uma dinâmica explosiva no Caribe, cujo desfecho permanece incerto.
Na quinta-feira, durante um evento na Casa Branca em celebração ao título do Inter Miami, o presidente Trump abriu uma nova frente em suas ambições geopolíticas ao sugerir que Cuba poderia se tornar o próximo alvo de ação militar americana — assim que o conflito com o Irã chegasse ao fim. Com a confiança de quem acredita deter a vantagem, Trump afirmou que o governo cubano está desesperado por um acordo, enquadrando a questão como uma simples questão de prioridades e timing.
As declarações ecoaram comentários feitos dias antes à Politico, nos quais Trump descreveu a queda do regime cubano como 'a cereja no topo' de sua agenda de política externa. Ele reconheceu que os EUA perseguem esse objetivo há mais de meio século, mas indicou que a resolução do conflito com o Irã abriria caminho para tratar desse 'negócio inacabado' no Caribe.
Por trás da retórica pública, uma campanha mais discreta já está em andamento. O secretário de Estado Marco Rubio mantém contato com um neto de Raúl Castro, enquanto Washington aperta o cerco econômico bloqueando o fornecimento de petróleo à ilha — medidas destinadas a tornar Havana mais receptiva a negociações nos termos americanos.
A resposta cubana foi de alinhamento explícito com o Irã. O chanceler Bruno Rodríguez transmitiu ao seu homólogo iraniano a solidariedade de Cuba ao governo e ao povo do Irã, em declaração divulgada pela agência estatal IRNA. O gesto representa tanto uma afirmação de resistência à pressão americana quanto um sinal para aliados e para a própria população cubana.
A convergência de ameaças militares, bloqueio econômico, diplomacia paralela e o apoio público de Cuba ao Irã cria uma dinâmica volátil no Caribe. O que ainda permanece obscuro é se os contatos mantidos por Rubio representam uma abertura genuína para negociação ou apenas um canal para entregar ultimatos. As próximas semanas devem revelar se Havana enxerga algum caminho para a acomodação — ou se pretende resistir à tempestade.
President Trump opened a new front in his administration's geopolitical ambitions on Thursday, suggesting that Cuba could become the next target of American military action once the conflict with Iran reaches its conclusion. Speaking at a White House event celebrating Inter Miami's 2025 league championship, Trump characterized the Cuban government as desperate for a deal and indicated that turning his attention to the island was simply a matter of timing. "They have no idea; Cuba wants a deal desperately," he said, framing the prospect with the casual confidence of someone confident in his leverage.
The remarks built on comments Trump had made to Politico days earlier, where he described the fall of Cuba's regime as "the cherry on top" of his foreign policy agenda. He acknowledged that the United States has pursued this objective for more than half a century, but suggested it had been deprioritized until now. The shift in emphasis reflects a broader recalibration of Trump's approach to the Western Hemisphere, one that treats the resolution of the Iran conflict as a stepping stone toward addressing what his administration views as unfinished business in the Caribbean.
Behind the public rhetoric lies a more deliberate diplomatic and economic campaign already underway. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been maintaining contact with a grandson of former Cuban dictator Raúl Castro, according to reporting from American news outlets last month. Simultaneously, Washington has tightened the economic screws on the island nation, blocking the flow of petroleum shipments to Cuba—a move designed to increase pressure on Havana's leadership and, presumably, make them more receptive to negotiations on American terms.
Cuba's response has been to align itself more visibly with Iran. Through official diplomatic channels, Cuba's Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez reached out to his Iranian counterpart to convey that the island nation stands with Iran's government and people in the current conflict. The statement, relayed by Iran's state news agency IRNA, represents a public declaration of solidarity at a moment when such gestures carry real diplomatic weight. By positioning itself alongside Iran, Cuba signals both its defiance of American pressure and its commitment to the broader coalition of nations resisting what they view as American hegemony.
The convergence of these developments—Trump's explicit threat, the economic blockade, the back-channel diplomacy, and Cuba's public support for Iran—creates a volatile dynamic in the Caribbean. Cuba's decision to openly back Iran may have been calculated to demonstrate resolve to its own population and to its allies, but it also removes any ambiguity about where the island stands. For Trump's administration, it may serve as further justification for the pressure campaign already underway. What remains unclear is whether the diplomatic contacts Rubio is maintaining represent a genuine opening for negotiation or merely a channel through which to deliver demands. The coming weeks will likely reveal whether Cuba's leadership sees a path to accommodation or whether it intends to weather the storm.
Notable Quotes
They have no idea; Cuba wants a deal desperately— President Trump, speaking at White House Inter Miami celebration
Cuba is at the side of the government and people of Iran— Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez, via diplomatic contact with Iranian counterpart
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Trump publicly announce Cuba as a target? Doesn't that eliminate surprise?
It's not really about military surprise—it's about psychological pressure. He's signaling to Cuba's leadership that the clock is ticking, that once Iran is resolved, American attention turns their way. It's meant to soften them up for negotiations.
And Cuba's support for Iran—is that defiance or strategy?
Probably both. Cuba can't afford to appear weak to its own people or to its remaining allies. But it's also a calculated risk. By backing Iran publicly, they're betting that solidarity matters more than appeasement.
What about Rubio's back-channel talks? Are those real negotiations?
That's the question nobody can answer yet. Rubio could be genuinely exploring a deal, or he could be gathering intelligence, or both. The fact that he's talking to Castro's grandson suggests someone in Havana thinks there's something to discuss.
Does the oil blockade actually work?
It creates real hardship, but it doesn't necessarily break a government's will. Cuba has survived American pressure for sixty years. The question is whether this time, with Iran consuming American resources, Cuba's leadership calculates they have less to lose by holding firm.
What's the endgame Trump is imagining?
Regime change, ideally without American troops. Economic collapse, internal pressure, a negotiated transition. But that assumes Cuba's government is as fragile as Trump seems to believe. History suggests otherwise.