We have not even begun yet.
At the narrow throat of the Persian Gulf, where a sliver of water carries a fifth of the world's energy, the United States has forced a reckoning it calls Project Freedom — transiting American-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday for the first time since Iran sealed it following February's strikes. The operation drew immediate fire and counter-accusation, with each side telling a different story about who was targeted and who was harmed. What unfolds now is not merely a military confrontation but a test of whether economic leverage, nuclear ambition, and the memory of recent war can be held in tension long enough for diplomacy to find a foothold.
- The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of global oil and gas flows — has been closed since February, sending fuel prices surging and handing Iran enormous leverage in ceasefire negotiations.
- Monday's U.S. military transit under 'Project Freedom' immediately turned violent: Washington says it sank six Iranian military boats; Tehran says two civilian cargo vessels were struck, killing five people.
- Iran's parliamentary speaker warned that Tehran has 'not even begun yet,' signaling that whatever retaliation is coming has not arrived — a threat that hangs over every ship now eyeing the passage.
- Iran struck the UAE with 15 missiles and four drones on Tuesday, hitting an oil facility in Fujairah, wounding three Indian nationals, and setting two cargo ships ablaze off the coast.
- Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran — brokered through Pakistan — continue even as the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, in place since April, tightens the economic vise on a struggling Iranian economy.
- A fragile ceasefire that has held for weeks now strains under the weight of competing ultimatums, with the central question no longer whether the strait stays open, but whether forcing it open ignites the wider war both sides claim to want to avoid.
The Strait of Hormuz — in places only a few miles wide — has become the hinge point of a standoff threatening global energy markets and a return to open warfare. On Monday, the United States launched Project Freedom, a military operation to force the strait open for commercial shipping after Iran sealed it following February's American and Israeli strikes. Two American-flagged merchant vessels made the crossing successfully, the first to do so since Iran's blockade began. But the operation immediately drew blood.
U.S. forces reported sinking six small Iranian boats they said were targeting vessels in the strait. Iran disputed this, claiming two civilian cargo boats were struck and five civilians killed. That gap — between military necessity and civilian harm, between restoring commerce and violating a ceasefire — defines the crisis. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil, gas, and fertilizer trade; when Iran closed it in February, fuel prices spiked across Europe and Asia, and Tehran gained a powerful bargaining chip in indirect nuclear talks being brokered through Pakistan.
Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, responded on social media with a pointed warning: 'We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; while we have not even begun yet.' The message was clear — Iran's retaliation is still forming. President Trump had framed the operation as necessary to free tens of thousands of seafarers stranded aboard hundreds of ships in the Persian Gulf since the war began.
The following day, the UAE reported Iran fired 15 missiles and four drones at its territory. One drone struck an oil facility in Fujairah, wounding three Indian nationals and sparking a fire. Two cargo vessels were reported ablaze off the UAE coast. Iran's Foreign Ministry neither confirmed nor denied the strikes but warned that the U.S. and UAE 'should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire.' India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia all condemned the attacks.
Beneath the military confrontation runs an economic war. Since April 13, the U.S. has enforced a naval blockade on Iranian ports, turning back at least 49 ships and threatening sanctions against companies that pay Iran for transit rights. Iran's latest peace proposal — circulated through semiofficial channels — calls for sanctions relief, an end to the blockade, U.S. force withdrawal, and a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon, but does not address its nuclear program. Trump expressed doubt the proposal would lead to a deal.
With Iran signaling its response has only begun and shippers still wary of the passage, the ceasefire that has held for weeks now hangs by a thread. The question is no longer whether the strait will stay open — but whether the effort to force it open will ignite the very war both sides have been trying to contain.
The Strait of Hormuz, a waterway no wider in places than a few miles, has become the fulcrum of a standoff that threatens to upend global energy markets and pull two adversaries back into open warfare. On Monday, the United States launched what it calls Project Freedom—a military operation designed to force open the strait for commercial shipping after Iran had effectively sealed it off following a February attack by American and Israeli forces. Two American-flagged merchant vessels successfully transited the passage that day, the first ships to make the crossing since Iran's blockade began. But the operation immediately drew blood and accusations.
The U.S. military reported that it fired on Iranian forces during the operation, sinking six small boats that it said were targeting vessels in the strait. Iran's military disputed this account, claiming instead that two small civilian cargo boats were struck, killing five civilians in the process. The discrepancy—six boats versus two, military targets versus civilian vessels—sits at the heart of the escalating tension. What the U.S. frames as a necessary security operation to restore global commerce, Iran characterizes as an unprovoked violation of a ceasefire that has held for more than three weeks.
The stakes are enormous. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas trade, along with fertilizer and other petroleum products. When Iran closed it in late February, fuel prices spiked globally, rattling economies from Europe to Asia. For Tehran, the closure became a powerful negotiating tool—a way to inflict economic pain on adversaries while extracting concessions. Breaking Iran's grip on the strait would strip away that leverage at a moment when the two sides are engaged in indirect talks, passing messages through Pakistan, over Iran's nuclear program and the broader terms of any lasting peace.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, responded to the American operation with a warning. In a post on social media Tuesday, he accused Washington of undermining shipping security in the strait and signaled that Tehran has not yet fully responded. "We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; while we have not even begun yet," he wrote. The message was unmistakable: Iran's retaliation is still to come. President Donald Trump had warned days earlier that Iranian efforts to block the strait "will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully," framing the operation as necessary to aid tens of thousands of stranded seafarers aboard hundreds of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf since the war began.
On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates reported that Iran had fired 15 missiles and four drones at it. One drone struck a key oil facility in the eastern emirate of Fujairah, sparking a fire and wounding three Indian nationals. The British military reported two cargo vessels ablaze off the UAE coast. Iran's Foreign Ministry neither confirmed nor denied the attacks but warned that both the U.S. and the UAE "should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire." The language was careful, the threat implicit. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the strikes as unacceptable, calling for safe passage through the strait. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia also condemned the attacks on the UAE, though the Saudi statement carried particular weight given the kingdom's strained relationship with its Gulf neighbor.
Underlying the immediate military confrontation is a broader economic war. Since April 13, the U.S. has enforced a naval blockade on Iranian ports, turning back at least 49 commercial ships and warning shipping companies they face sanctions if they pay Iran for transit rights. The blockade has deprived Tehran of oil revenue it desperately needs to stabilize its ailing economy. American officials have made clear that the economic pressure is designed to force Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program and other longstanding disputes.
Iran's latest proposal for ending the war, according to semiofficial news agencies with ties to the security apparatus, calls for the U.S. to lift sanctions, end the blockade, withdraw forces from the region, and cease all hostilities including Israeli operations in Lebanon. The proposal does not address Iran's nuclear program or enriched uranium, Tehran claims, though those issues have long been central to tensions with the U.S. and Israel. Iran wants other matters resolved within 30 days and aims to end the war rather than simply extend the ceasefire. Trump expressed skepticism over the weekend that the proposal would lead to a deal.
What happens next remains uncertain. A Panamanian-flagged crude oil tanker was spotted heading toward the center of the strait on Tuesday morning, its destination Singapore, though it was unclear whether it would attempt passage. The U.S. Joint Maritime Information Center has advised ships to cross in Omani waters within an enhanced security zone. But shippers remain wary, and with Iran signaling that its response is only beginning, the fragile ceasefire that has held for weeks now hangs by a thread. The question is no longer whether the strait will remain open, but whether the effort to force it open will ignite the very conflict both sides have been trying to contain.
Citas Notables
We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; while we have not even begun yet.— Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator
Iranian efforts to halt passage through the strait will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.— President Donald Trump
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does control of this particular waterway matter so much to Iran's negotiating position?
Because it's the only leverage Tehran has that actually costs the other side money. Close the strait, and you're immediately raising fuel prices for Europe, Asia, everyone. That's not theoretical—it's happening now. The moment the U.S. breaks that grip, Iran loses its main bargaining chip.
But the U.S. is also blockading Iranian ports. Isn't that equally painful for Iran?
It is, but it works differently. The blockade squeezes Iran's economy over time. The strait closure squeezes the whole world immediately. One is leverage; the other is punishment. Iran prefers leverage.
The death toll seems disputed. Five civilians, or military targets?
That's the real danger. Both sides are claiming the other committed a war crime. When you can't even agree on what happened, you can't negotiate your way out. You just keep escalating.
What does Qalibaf mean when he says Iran hasn't "even begun yet"?
He's signaling that the missile and drone attacks on the UAE weren't the main response. That was a warning shot. The real retaliation is still coming, and it could be much worse.
Is there any path back from this?
Only if both sides decide the cost of fighting is higher than the cost of talking. Right now, neither side believes that yet. Iran thinks it can extract more concessions by holding firm. The U.S. thinks economic pressure will break Iran's will. They're both probably wrong, but they have to learn it the hard way.