Trump Has Declared the Iran War Over a Dozen Times. It Isn't, and Hormuz Explains Why

On Monday, Donald Trump went to social media with a threat: if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately "Open for Business," the United States will conclude its "stay" in Iran by attacking the country's energy and water infrastructure. He said he would "obliterate" it. The war he was threatening to escalate is one he has said, in one form or another, is already over.

The United States is now in its fifth week of war with Iran. According to experts cited by Axios and relayed by Firstpost, Trump has suggested the conflict is ending or has ended at least a dozen times. Iran, meanwhile, remains defiant and is still closing off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil.

The record of statements runs back to early March. On March 2, at a press conference where three US soldiers received the Medal of Honor, Trump said, "We will easily prevail. … Whatever it takes." The same day he told ABC News that nobody else could have done this but him. On March 9, speaking at the Republican Issues Conference, he said, "We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough," and promised to go forward toward "ultimate victory." That day he also said the war would be over "very soon" and that Iran was "all gone."

On March 11, he told Axios the war would end soon because there was "practically nothing left to target," and that it would finish "any time I want it to end." To an audience the same day he said, "In the first hour it was over," then asked, "We don't want to leave early, do we? We gotta finish the job, right?" On March 12 he said Iran was "pretty much at the end of the line," adding that it was only a question of when. On March 13 he told Fox News the war would end when "I feel it in my bones."

The pace continued. On March 23 he said the US and Iran had held "very good and productive conversations," while warning that without a deal, "we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out." On March 24 he said the war had been won and that regime change was imminent. On March 26, at a cabinet meeting, he said Iran was "defeated, they can't make a comeback."

The analysis offers a plain reason none of this has ended the fighting: Iran has not been decisively defeated, and it has not agreed to a peace deal. None of the things that would actually end a war, a formal ceasefire, a surrender or regime change, has occurred. Tehran still projects strength through its missiles, regional proxies and, above all, its ability to disrupt Hormuz. Its leadership remains intact. The piece describes the new leadership in Tehran as far more radical and militaristic than the previous one, and sees no sign it will capitulate under pressure.

The analysis also points to a mismatch between rhetoric and strategy. Trump has alternated between declaring victory and threatening escalation, which it reads as a sign Washington has not settled on an endgame: regime change, deterrence or a negotiated rollback of Iran's capabilities. It suggests the declarations may be aimed at global markets, at holding down oil prices, and at reassuring Americans ahead of the midterms.

Two paths to a real ending are laid out. One is a negotiated settlement covering sanctions, nuclear limits and maritime security, which would likely require reopening Hormuz, de-escalation by both sides and clear, mutually accepted terms. The other is a decisive shift on the ground that forces Iran to concede. Experts quoted are skeptical of the second: sending ground forces into a country of 93 million could become a disaster, and an attempt to take Kharg Island, they warn, could be close to a suicide mission. Until one of those paths opens, the war continues.