How a Pro-Israel Super PAC's $2M Bet Backfired in New Jersey's 11th District Primary

The race for New Jersey's 11th Congressional District was still too close to call after Thursday's special Democratic primary. One outcome was already clear, though: the heavy spending by a prominent pro-Israel super PAC had backfired.

The United Democracy Project, a super PAC that has taken in tens of millions of dollars from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent more than $2 million to bring down former Rep. Tom Malinowski. When counting paused, Malinowski was narrowly behind progressive activist Analilia Mejia, with more votes still to be tallied. The ads may have hurt him. They also helped split the establishment vote in a crowded field, and Mejia was positioned to take advantage.

Malinowski served two terms in Congress after winning a swing seat in 2018, and he entered the race as a favorite. But party leaders did not unite behind him. Sen. Andy Kim backed him, while former Gov. Phil Murphy and other prominent figures endorsed Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, and others supported former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way. Mejia took the progressive lane, with endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and the Working Families Party. Her ads stressed her outsider status: "I don't work for the political machine."

At a Friday press conference, where she switched between English and Spanish, Mejia credited her approach. She said she spent as much time as she could talking to voters, did not go negative, and focused on issues and people's daily problems.

Malinowski was generally seen as a supporter of Israel in Congress. UDP told media outlets it targeted him because he had spoken of conditioning aid to Israel. Its ads, however, never mentioned Israel. They criticized him for approving funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement in a bipartisan budget deal during President Trump's first term, and accused him of corruption for "cashing in on Covid-related stocks while in Congress."

A longtime New Jersey Democratic strategist who was not involved in the race, and who spoke on condition of anonymity, said AIPAC "created this race for themselves" by spending millions to defeat a moderate and ending up with a progressive outside the frame it would like. The strategist said that without the spending it would have been a sleepy primary, though also credited a "perfect storm" in which Mejia was "building a movement." Julie Roginsky, a veteran New Jersey strategist who ran the super PAC backing Malinowski, wrote on X that she is a pro-Israel Jew and that AIPAC's conduct was bad for Jews, bad for Israel, and bad for bipartisan congressional support for the issues AIPAC says it cares about.

The winner is expected to finish with about 30% of the vote. That reflects several overlapping factors: a splintered establishment field, the decline of the state party machine that once controlled these primaries, rising frustration among Democratic voters, and the super PAC money.

UDP spokesperson Patrick Dorton called the result "an anticipated possibility" and said the group's focus is on who serves the next full term. He said UDP will monitor dozens of primaries, including the June NJ-11 primary. The group ended 2025 with $96 million in the bank after a $30 million AIPAC donation. It spent $61 million in 2023 and 2024, including more than $22 million to unseat Reps. Jamaal Bowman in New York and Cori Bush in Missouri, and more than $4 million to help Sarah Elfreth win an open Maryland seat. In the prior cycle it spent $33 million, mostly in Democratic primaries.

The politics around Israel have been shifting. A September AP-NORC poll found 71% of Democrats thought Israel's response in Gaza had gone "too far," up from 63% a year earlier. Pew found 18% of Democrats viewed the Israeli government favorably. Gallup found in March that 59% of Democrats sympathized more with Palestinians, the first majority in over 20 years of asking. Sixty-one Democrats are co-sponsoring the "Block the Bombs" bill. Ocasio-Cortez wrote that "moderate or progressive, AIPAC is not our friend."

Candidates UDP has backed before face tough primaries ahead, including Reps. Valerie Foushee, Haley Stevens and Wesley Bell, and Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales. The June NJ-11 primary will show whether the group tries again here.