The Trump coalition is shattered: what will Republicans do now?

Three days after the 2026 midterms, Donald Trump named Stephen Miller his new White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles. Miller had been the president's chief domestic policy adviser, and he is a longtime aide known for hardline immigration policies. The appointment was read as a signal that Trump does not intend to soften his policies or his message in his remaining years in office.

The choice landed in a party still absorbing the scale of its defeat. Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate. They also lost governorships and state legislatures in red states such as Texas and Kansas, where Democrats had been shut out of power for decades and where Trump won by double digits when he was on the ballot. Outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis described the results as "close to an extinction-level event for Republicans." Old-guard figures who had clashed with Trump over the years, including Texas Senator John Cornyn and Maine's Susan Collins, were voted out as well.

The reversal was sharp. In 2024, Trump had widened the Republican base, gaining ground with Latinos and younger voters, and the party hailed those gains as a sign of lasting strength. A New York Times analysis of voter data found that between 2024 and 2026, Latino support for Democratic candidates rose by 29 percentage points, and support among voters aged 18 to 29 rose by 33 points. Pre-election polling had already shown broad disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy, immigration and the war with Iran. Democrats also benefited from a perception that the Trump family and administration were rife with self-dealing and corruption, and from the president's focus on the White House ballroom and other Washington construction projects, which fed a sense that he cared more about his legacy than about affordability.

Benjamin Shrader, who leads the Young Republicans in Austin, spoke to the BBC the morning after his party was nearly wiped out in Texas by what he called a Democratic "blue tsunami." He called Trump still a "force of nature," but when asked about the president using his first public appearance after the results to show off the ballroom, he hesitated. "I would focus on issues that are not ballrooms, that are not renaming things," he said. "I would focus on what matters."

The fight over what comes next is already under way. Vice-President JD Vance blamed public anger over the Iran war and said the party could recover, while conceding there would be "a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why." Steve Bannon, an architect of the Maga movement, predicted a "civil war" in the party. He blamed the economy and "foreign wars," said the Maga programme had not been implemented, and urged Trump to double down on mass deportations. Republican strategist Rina Shah framed the choice as a party centred on "one figure, one guy," or one built on wider ideas like conservatism that can win outside the deepest red places. Whit Ayres, another strategist, said plenty of Maga voters remain loyal, but that a significant portion of the party is non-Maga, and "that's a majority now."

Never Trumpers, who opposed his first campaign, are pointing to the losses as a reason to return to the party's pre-Trump roots. That may be close to impossible. Most Republicans have moved right on immigration and rejected the interventionist foreign policy of the George W Bush era. The moderate establishment wing in Congress has almost entirely disappeared, replaced by Trump backers who echo his nativism and populist rhetoric.

Vance's position is the most delicate. His postmortem on X blamed the Iran war and called for a return to "America First," breaking with Trump on an unpopular conflict while keeping a brand that remains popular with the Maga base. He also echoed growing calls on the right to reexamine US support for Israel and signalled openness to some changes in immigration enforcement, which puts him at odds with Miller, a Vance ally. Ayres said Vance was the odds-on favourite for the 2028 nomination before the midterms, and that the race is now "completely wide open."

Rumoured contenders include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, DeSantis, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Hopefuls may face pressure to declare within months, and some could launch before the year is out. Trump, who has praised both Vance and Rubio but deflects questions about a successor, will still hold the loudest voice in the party. Whether he gets involved is unclear, but his endorsement looms as the biggest wildcard, and his next moves on Iran will be watched for what they mean for 2028.