In the quiet calculus that governs the Persian Gulf, Tehran has chosen to spell out, in public and through diplomatic channels, what a second war would cost its neighbours. Its warning reaches past American bases and warships toward power plants, gas pipelines and airports, and a single lawmaker has even raised the spectre of nuclear weapons, though no government has yet declared such a course. Behind the words lies a contested arsenal and a region still counting the damage of the last round, while the negotiating table sits deadlocked and the calendar moves toward early November, when a renew
Tehran Warns It Will Hit Gulf Energy and Civilian Infrastructure, and Floats Nuclear Options, If US Strikes Iran
Threatened strikes on civilian infrastructure, airports and gas facilities would put civilian lives across the region at risk, per Iran's foreign minister's warning; earlier strikes damaged energy and industrial sites in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Tehran's list now reaches past bases and warships to airports and gas pipelines
Mark
Why does this threat matter now, rather than being the usual Iranian rhetoric?
Mimi
Because the last round was not rhetoric. Iranian strikes hit gas plants and airports in Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait and Bahrain, plus energy sites in the UAE. The Gulf states know what is on the list.
Mark
And the timing?
Mimi
Trump has warned of an attack after the early-November midterms if talks fail, and they have been stuck for months. Interceptor stocks in Israel and the Gulf are also under strain.
Luke
Let me slow down on the nuclear part. What is actually confirmed?
Mimi
Only that Jokar, a committee chair, reportedly asked authorities to permit nuclear weapons use and to suspend NPT cooperation. That comes via Iran International, an opposition outlet.
Luke
So it is one lawmaker's call, secondhand, not government policy. I would not read it as a decision.
Mark
What about the missile numbers?
Luke
Also contested. Analysts tell the WSJ hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles, while the Pentagon says up to 90 percent of drones, missiles and naval industry was destroyed. Both can't be simply true, and neither is independently verified here.
Mimi
The experts agree on one thing: overreach is costly. Nadimi says Iran could hurt regional energy and internet infrastructure but would likely lose its own in return.
Mark
So the threat is partly deterrence?
Mimi
That is how Toossi frames it, imposing costs fast to discourage an attack.
Luke
And the report doesn't say whether the Gulf states have responded. That is unknown.
O Pulso
- Tehran has put the Gulf on notice that a renewed US and Israeli air campaign would bring retaliation against energy plants, gas pipelines and airports far beyond American targets.
- A parliamentary committee chair has urged permitting nuclear weapons use and suspending NPT cooperation, a threat that stirs alarm even though it has not become official policy.
- Interceptor stocks in Israel and US-aligned Gulf states are strained after the last exchange, while analysts dispute how many missiles and drones Iran still holds.
- Diplomacy remains stalled, and with Trump's warned post-midterm deadline in early November, the region is bracing for whether talks or strikes will define the coming weeks.
In the quiet calculus that governs the Persian Gulf, Tehran has chosen to spell out, in public and through diplomatic channels, what a second war would cost its neighbours. Its warning reaches past American bases and warships toward power plants, gas pipelines and airports, and a single lawmaker has even raised the spectre of nuclear weapons, though no government has yet declared such a course. Behind the words lies a contested arsenal and a region still counting the damage of the last round, while the negotiating table sits deadlocked and the calendar moves toward early November, when a renewed campaign may or may not arrive.
Iran is now making its intentions plain to the Gulf states, both publicly and through quiet diplomatic messages. The warning, reported by The Wall Street Journal and carried by The Jerusalem Post, is that if the United States and Israel resume their air campaign, Tehran will answer far beyond American bases and warships. Its list of possible targets includes energy infrastructure, gas pipelines, airports and other civilian sites across the Gulf.
The sharpest language came from Mohammad-Saleh Jokar, who chairs the parliament's International Affairs Committee. As relayed by the opposition outlet Iran International, he called for allowing the use of deterrent weapons, nuclear ones included, and for suspending cooperation with the Non-Proliferation Treaty should the US attack. Those remarks belong to one lawmaker, not to an announced government decision. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a more measured tone in the Financial Times, warning that new attacks would endanger civilian lives and the wider regional and global economy.
The weight of these threats rests on a stockpile whose size is disputed. Analysts cite hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles and renewed underground production, while the Pentagon claims most of Iran's drone, missile and naval capacity was destroyed. Analysts see both resolve and risk: Tehran's logic holds that deterrence demands immediate and heavy costs, but overreach could invite reciprocal strikes on Iran's own energy and internet systems.
The last confrontation showed the human cost. Energy and industrial sites in the UAE, gas plants and airports in Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait and Bahrain were all struck. Diplomacy offers little relief, with talks deadlocked for months. President Trump has warned that without a deal, an attack could follow after the early-November midterms, and Israel has been readying its own options. The region now waits to see whether that date brings negotiation or renewed war.
Iran has begun telling the Gulf, publicly and through diplomatic channels, what a second round of war would look like. According to a Wall Street Journal report relayed by The Jerusalem Post, Tehran's message is that if the United States and Israel renew their air campaign, the response will reach well beyond American bases and warships.
The list of named targets includes energy infrastructure, natural gas pipelines, airports and other civilian sites across the Persian Gulf region. Tehran has also hinted at a new array of weapons, nuclear bombs among them. The nuclear language was sharpest in remarks attributed to Mohammad-Saleh Jokar, who chairs the Iranian parliament's International Affairs Committee. Iran International, an outlet opposed to the regime, reported that he asked the country's authorities to permit the use of deterrent weapons, nuclear weapons included, if the US attacks. He also called for suspending Iran's cooperation with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in that event. Countries that host American forces on their soil or in their airspace, he said, would face a harsh response and pay a heavy price. The nuclear remarks come from one lawmaker as relayed by an opposition outlet, not from an announced government decision.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took a different register in an op-ed in the Financial Times. New attacks, he wrote, would put civilian lives and the well-being of all regional states and the global economy at great risk.
Behind the threats is a stockpile whose size is contested. Analysts cited by the WSJ estimate Iran holds hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles and has resumed production in underground facilities. Iran appears to be leaning on its missiles and drones as a deterrent, even after Operation Roaring Lion, Operation Epic Fury and the blockade that followed. The Pentagon has said up to 90 percent of Iran's drones, missiles and naval industry was destroyed, so the two accounts are far apart.
The last confrontation showed what retaliation can do. Iranian fire inflicted significant damage on US air bases, embassies and fleets across the region. Energy and industrial facilities in the UAE were hit, as were gas plants and airports in Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait and Bahrain. Tehran now wants to inflict more pain, at a moment when interceptor missile stockpiles in Israel and in US-aligned Gulf states are under pressure after the pause in hostilities.
Analysts quoted by the WSJ see both resolve and risk. Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy said the consensus in Tehran is that deterrence requires immediate, sustained and substantial costs imposed on adversaries. Saeid Golkarat, an expert on the Revolutionary Guard, warned that Iran risks overreaching if it tries to carry out every threat, and must manage a shrinking missile supply carefully. Farzin Nadimi of the Washington Institute said Iran certainly could do major damage to the region's energy and internet infrastructure, but would most likely lose its own in reciprocal attacks.
The diplomatic track offers little relief. Negotiations have been deadlocked for months, and President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that failure to reach a deal could bring a US attack after the midterm elections in early November. Israel has stepped up its own preparations in recent weeks, and conflicting reports say the IDF planned to strike Iran on October 10 before Trump reined it in. The early-November window is now the date to watch.
Citações Notáveis
New attacks will put civilian lives and the well-being of all regional states and the global economy at great risk.— Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, Financial Times op-ed
If Iranians do that, they'll most likely lose their own in reciprocal attacks.— Farzin Nadimi, Washington Institute senior fellow
Quer a matéria completa?
Leia o original em The Jerusalem Post ↗
Politics & Governance