Talarico Rallies in San Marcos as Underdog Texas Senate Bid Against Paxton Enters Final Weeks

A bog of investigations and opposition, or smooth sailing
Control of the Senate in Trump's final two years may hinge on the Texas race between Talarico and Paxton.
Mark

Why is this race getting so much attention? Texas has disappointed Democrats before.

Mimi

Because the picture has changed. Talarico is now seen as a real contender, and he raised $64 million in the third quarter, which his campaign calls a Senate record.

Luke

Worth noting that record is the campaign's own description. The fundraising lead over Paxton is reported, but a record claim is one side's framing.

Mark

And Paxton's history matters here?

Mimi

It's part of the explanation. He was impeached by the Texas legislature, by his own party, and later acquitted.

Luke

Right, acquitted. And the idea that this explains Talarico's rise is described as partial. Nobody has shown how much of it comes from Paxton's baggage.

Mark

What about the money on the Republican side?

Mimi

The Senate Leadership Fund has spent over $124 million on ads for Paxton, and Trump has visited Texas several times to rally for him.

Luke

That tells us Republicans are worried enough to spend heavily. It doesn't tell us who is ahead. Talarico is still described as the underdog.

Mark

What about the flu absence and the rumors?

Mimi

He was out nine days, and influencers claimed he was in a mental health facility in Ohio. That claim was false and collapsed on inspection.

Luke

And the Sanders detail is a choice, not a verdict. We know he won't share a stage with Talarico, but the reporting doesn't say whether that helps.

  • A once-doomed Democratic challenger is suddenly within reach of a Republican seat that has held for three decades.
  • Talarico's record $64 million haul in the third quarter has outpaced Paxton and reshaped how national observers see the race.
  • Paxton's impeachment and acquittal have left lingering doubts that Talarico is working to turn into votes.
  • Republicans have answered with more than $124 million in super PAC spending and repeated Trump rallies to shore up a seat that should be safe.
  • A flu-related absence sparked a brief storm of false online claims before collapsing under scrutiny, leaving the campaign focused on costs and the final weeks ahead.

In San Marcos, a small city south of Austin, James Talarico stood before supporters as the final weeks of the Texas Senate race began, an underdog attempting something his party has not managed in Texas for more than thirty years. Once dismissed as another Democratic hope destined to fade on Election Day, he now stands as a serious challenger to Ken Paxton, buoyed by voter unease about Paxton's past and by a record flood of donations. Whatever the outcome, it arrives at a moment when the balance of power in Washington, and the shape of the president's final years, hangs on a single state's ballots.

On Thursday, James Talarico was set to address supporters in San Marcos as his Texas Senate campaign entered its final weeks. The Democrat hopes to become the first member of his party to win statewide office in Texas in over thirty years, and he is doing it from behind.

Not long ago, Talarico was viewed as the latest in a familiar line of Democrats whose campaigns stirred hopes of flipping Texas, only to fade on Election Day. Now he is treated as a real contender against Republican Ken Paxton. Much of that shift rests on voter wariness about Paxton, who has faced corruption questions and survived an impeachment by his own party's legislature through acquittal. Talarico has also far outraised him, bringing in a record $64 million in the third quarter.

The stakes extend well beyond Texas. The winner will help decide which party controls the Senate during the last two years of Trump's presidency. Republicans have responded with several Trump rallies for Paxton and more than $124 million in ads from the Senate Leadership Fund, a heavy investment for a seat that would otherwise seem secure.

Talarico's absence for nine days this month, due to the flu, set off false online rumors that quickly collapsed under scrutiny. Now he is pressing a message of rising costs and trying to appeal across Texas's metro, border, and rural regions. The question is whether that message, and the money behind it, can overcome a three-decade Republican advantage.

On Thursday, James Talarico was scheduled to stand before supporters in San Marcos, a small city south of Austin, as the final weeks of his Texas Senate campaign began. The Democrat is trying to become the first member of his party to win statewide office in Texas in more than 30 years, and he is doing it as the underdog.

The way the race is discussed nationally has shifted over the past months. Talarico, a state lawmaker, was first seen as the latest in a line of Democratic candidates whose campaigns raised hopes of flipping Texas, only to see those hopes fade on Election Day. Now he is regarded as a real contender for the seat against Republican Ken Paxton.

Part of that rise is attributed to voter wariness about Paxton, who has faced questions over corruption in the past. He was impeached by his own party in the Texas legislature and later acquitted. Talarico has also far outpaced him in fundraising, bringing in $64 million in the third quarter, which his campaign described as a record for a Senate candidate.

The stakes reach beyond Texas. Whoever wins will help decide which party controls the Senate during the last two years of President Donald Trump's time in office. For Trump, that could mean smooth sailing or a bog of investigations and opposition.

Republicans are plainly aware of the threat. Trump has made several trips to Texas to rally for Paxton, and the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP's leadership super PAC, has spent more than $124 million on ads promoting him. That is a lot of effort in a race that would otherwise be relatively easy for a Republican, and Paxton has struggled to gain purchase.

The San Marcos rally follows nine days earlier this month when Talarico was out of public view because of the flu. His absence set off a swirl of online conspiracy theories, including the false claim that he was at a mental health treatment center in Ohio. Conservative social media influencers shared it, but it quickly fell apart under closer inspection.

Talarico, a seminarian as well as a state representative, has tried to stay as nonpartisan as he can across a varied map: the big metro areas that already lean Democratic, the border towns that flipped from blue to red in the last election, and the Republican rural high plains and desert. He has distanced himself from former President Joe Biden's administration and from his own party. Progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders is coming to Texas this month, but he will not share a stage with Talarico.

His strategy is to speak directly to what voters say worries them most: costs that have climbed for years. With the final weeks underway, the question is whether that message, and the money behind it, can overcome a Republican advantage that has held in Texas for three decades.

Talarico's strategy is to focus on the costs voters say have grown for years, and he is keeping a nonpartisan distance from his party and the Biden administration.
— Associated Press reporting
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