In Brazil, a country that has spent four decades relearning how to choose its leaders, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won back the presidency by defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff, overcoming a deficit from the first round held on 4 October. It is a rare turn: no runner-up since the return of democracy in 1985 had reversed such a result. The victory belongs to a longer story of a nation divided between two political families, one whose patriarch now sits in prison for an attempted coup, and it is a reminder that a popular vote can still change the arc of a race even after it seems settled.
Lula Mounts Historic Comeback to Win Brazil Runoff Against Flávio Bolsonaro
No first-round runner-up had ever won the runoff. Until Sunday.
Mark
Why is this result being called historic?
Mimi
Because no first-round runner-up has won a runoff since democracy returned in 1985. Lula trailed Flávio Bolsonaro on 4 October and still won.
Mark
What made the difference?
Luke
Careful here. The reporting points to massive student-led anti-Bolsonaro protests after the first round, which buoyed Lula's campaign. That is context, not proof they decided the vote.
Mimi
Fair. They are the one named factor, though.
Mark
And Minas Gerais?
Mimi
It's the bellwether state. Lula won it in 2022, but Bolsonaro took it 48.43% to 43.33% in the first round this year.
Luke
We don't have the runoff figures for Minas Gerais or the national margin in this material. So we can't say how the swing happened.
Mark
What about Jair Bolsonaro?
Mimi
He's serving 27 years for plotting a failed coup and hoped his son's win would free him.
Luke
Hoped is the word. Nothing here says a release was guaranteed even if his son had won.
Il Polso
- A first-round deficit that looked decisive became a comeback nobody had seen in Brazil since 1985.
- Student-led protests against the Bolsonaro camp swept the streets and gave Lula's campaign fresh momentum.
- Minas Gerais, the bellwether state where Flávio had led 48.43% to 43.33%, became the ground where the race had to be won back.
- With the result declared, the question now turns to Jair Bolsonaro's hopes of release, which have been set back by his son's defeat.
In Brazil, a country that has spent four decades relearning how to choose its leaders, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won back the presidency by defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff, overcoming a deficit from the first round held on 4 October. It is a rare turn: no runner-up since the return of democracy in 1985 had reversed such a result. The victory belongs to a longer story of a nation divided between two political families, one whose patriarch now sits in prison for an attempted coup, and it is a reminder that a popular vote can still change the arc of a race even after it seems settled.
Brazil's incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has won the presidential runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, turning around the deficit he carried out of the first round on 4 October. He becomes the first runner-up since democracy returned in 1985 to overturn such a result.
The rules are demanding. A candidate must win more than half of the votes cast, and when no one cleared that bar in October, the two leading candidates went to a second round. Flávio, a 45-year-old lawyer and former senator from Rio, carried the weight of a famous name, the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a failed coup after losing to Lula in 2022.
The first round had gone badly for Lula. Flávio beat him in Minas Gerais, the bellwether state north of Rio, by a clear margin. What changed the race was a wave of large student-led protests against Bolsonaro, which lifted Lula's campaign and gave his team the hope of a historic fightback. On Sunday, they achieved it.
Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, is already Brazil's longest-serving modern president, having governed from 2003 to 2010 and returned in 2023. The final margin and state-by-state breakdown are still to be reported, but the outcome has closed the door on the hope Jair Bolsonaro had pinned on his son.
Brazil's incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has won the presidential runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, overturning the deficit he carried out of the first round on 4 October. The result, reported in the Guardian's live coverage of the second round, makes him the first runner-up since the return of democracy in 1985 to turn the contest around.
The rules are simple. Brazil's president is chosen purely by popular vote. A candidate needs one vote more than 50% of the votes cast, and there is no role for parliament and no electoral college. Because nobody cleared that bar on 4 October, the two leading candidates went to a second round. Bolsonaro, the leading candidate in the first round, faced Lula, the leftwing incumbent.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a lawyer and former senator from Rio, aged 45. He is the son of the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a failed coup attempt after losing to Lula in the 2022 election. The elder Bolsonaro endorsed his son and has said he hopes to be released if the son wins.
The comparison with 2022 shows how much Lula had to recover. That year he beat Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff, with his base concentrated in the north-east and Bolsonaro strong in the south. But Lula then entered the second round as the first-round leader, and he won the bellwether state of Minas Gerais, north of Rio de Janeiro. This time Flávio Bolsonaro beat him there in the first round, 48.43% to 43.33%.
What shifted the race, according to the account, was a wave of protest. After the first round, large student-led demonstrations against Bolsonaro buoyed Lula's campaign, and his team went into Sunday's vote hoping to stage a historic fightback. They got it.
Lula is already the longest-serving president in Brazil's modern history. He served two terms from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in 2023. He turns 81 on Tuesday.
The source material does not yet give the final margin or the state-by-state breakdown of the runoff, so how Lula won Minas Gerais, if he did, remains to be reported. The other open question is Jair Bolsonaro's position: he hoped his son's victory would open his prison door, and that hope now ends with this result.
Citazioni salienti
Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son and hopes to be released if he wins.— Guardian reporting on Jair Bolsonaro's position
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Politics & Governance