On a November night, the long Texas tradition of Republican dominance in the Senate began to bend, as CBS News projected that Democrat James Talarico, a young former teacher and progressive Christian, will defeat Republican Ken Paxton. For decades Texas has not sent a Democrat to Washington's upper chamber, since 1988, and the race stood out because it was built around the sort of opening a party waits generations to see. Paxton, a state attorney general scarred by impeachment and a tangle of personal controversies, carried the weight of a contest that became the most expensive in Texas histor
Talarico Projected to Defeat Paxton, Giving Democrats a Texas Senate Flip
The first real Senate opening for Texas Democrats since 1988
Why does this one result carry so much weight?
Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Democrats have wanted this flip for a long time, and this was the first real chance they'd had in all those years.
What changed the picture?
Paxton beat sitting Sen. John Cornyn in the runoff with a late endorsement from President Trump. After that, Democrats felt better about their odds, and some Republicans said they'd have to spend millions to defend the seat.
Careful with the cause and effect. The reporting says Democrats saw their chances improve after the primary. It doesn't tell us how much Paxton's baggage actually moved voters.
What was that baggage?
The 2023 impeachment by the state House on bribery, obstruction and abuse of public trust, followed by acquittal in the state Senate. Then the Dubai New Year's Eve reporting during his divorce.
And that Dubai account is reported, not something Paxton confirmed. His campaign decried it without denying it, which is not the same as confirming it.
Talarico had his own scrutiny, right?
Yes. Republicans cited his past comments on veganism and gender, and he's said some missed the mark. Then there was the week-plus off the trail with the flu, which his campaign answered with security camera footage.
The footage "appeared to show" him at home. That's the wording, and the flu is his own description. Worth keeping that distinction.
And the money?
Over half a billion dollars by mid-October, the most expensive race in Texas history.
That's the figure as of mid-October. We don't have a final total here, and this is a projection, not a certified result.
Der Puls
- A sitting attorney general, impeached by his own state House, faced a challenger who made corruption and rising costs the center of his campaign.
- Spending in the race passed half a billion dollars by mid-October, turning a Texas contest into a national battlefield that rattled Republican strategists.
- Paxton's messy divorce proceedings and reports of a Dubai trip drew sharp scrutiny, while his campaign called the coverage persecution without denying it.
- Talarico absorbed attacks over past remarks on veganism and gender, softened them with admissions that some had 'missed the mark,' and weathered a week-long absence that fueled conspiracy talk before security footage quieted it.
- With the projection, Democrats have claimed a decisive step toward Senate control, and the final chamber balance now depends on how Texas fits into the larger map.
On a November night, the long Texas tradition of Republican dominance in the Senate began to bend, as CBS News projected that Democrat James Talarico, a young former teacher and progressive Christian, will defeat Republican Ken Paxton. For decades Texas has not sent a Democrat to Washington's upper chamber, since 1988, and the race stood out because it was built around the sort of opening a party waits generations to see. Paxton, a state attorney general scarred by impeachment and a tangle of personal controversies, carried the weight of a contest that became the most expensive in Texas history. What it means for the country is that a single state now helps decide whether power in the Senate will change hands.
CBS News has projected that Democrat James Talarico will defeat Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. For Democrats, it is a flip they have chased in the state for decades, since Texas last sent one of their own to the U.S. Senate in 1988.
Talarico, 37, is a former teacher and a Presbyterian seminarian who calls himself a progressive Christian. He built his campaign around fighting corruption and lowering costs. Paxton, 63, is the state's attorney general, and he reached the general election by defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a Republican runoff, with a late endorsement from President Trump. That primary opened the door, and Democrats began to see a real chance.
The race grew bitter. Paxton had been impeached by the state House in 2023 on charges including bribery and obstruction of justice, and the state Senate later acquitted him. During the campaign, as his divorce proceedings unfolded, reporting described a New Year's Eve trip to Dubai with two U.S. fugitives and a woman who was not his wife. His campaign called the coverage persecution without disputing it. Republicans, meanwhile, painted Talarico as too extreme for Texas, pointing to old remarks on veganism and gender. He conceded some had "missed the mark" and later called them "cringey."
Last month Talarico was out of view for more than a week with what he said was the flu, and the absence sparked conspiracy talk until his campaign released security footage placing him at home in Texas.
Spending eventually topped half a billion dollars, the costliest race in state history. With the projected win, Democrats take a major step toward a Senate majority, and Texas's final place in the chamber's balance is now the question to watch.
CBS News has projected that Democrat James Talarico will defeat Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. It is the kind of flip Democrats have been chasing in the state for decades. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, and this was the first time in all those years that the party saw a real opening.
Talarico is 37. He is a former teacher and a Presbyterian seminarian who describes himself as a progressive Christian. His campaign centered on fighting corruption and lowering costs. His opponent, Paxton, is 63 and the state's attorney general.
Paxton got to the general election by beating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff for the Republican nomination. Cornyn had held the seat since 2002. Paxton won with the help of a last-minute endorsement from President Trump. After that primary, Democrats saw their prospects improve. They pointed to Paxton's history of personal controversies and his more conservative positions. Many Republicans said openly that they would now have to spend millions to hold a seat in Texas. By mid-October, spending in the race had already passed half a billion dollars, making it the most expensive in the state's history.
Paxton's record was a central part of the contest. The state House impeached him in 2023 on accusations of bribery, obstruction of justice and abuse of the public trust. The state Senate later acquitted him. During the campaign, as he went through messy divorce proceedings, further reporting surfaced. It said he spent New Year's Eve in 2024 at a party in Dubai with two U.S. fugitives and a woman who was not his wife. His campaign decried the reporting without denying it, and said he had been politically persecuted.
Paxton and the broader Republican Party went after Talarico too. They portrayed him as too extreme for Texas and cited earlier comments he had made on subjects like veganism and gender. Talarico has said some of those remarks "missed the mark," and later called them "cringey."
Last month, Talarico was off the campaign trail for more than a week with what he described as a bad case of the flu. Republicans scrutinized where he was, and the questions fed conspiracy theories. The attention appeared to fizzle after his campaign released security camera footage that appeared to show him at his home in Texas during the absence.
With the projected win, Democrats secure a key victory in their effort to take control of the Senate. How Texas fits into the chamber's final balance is the next thing to watch.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Some of his past comments on issues like veganism and gender "missed the mark" and were later called "cringey."— James Talarico, as reported by CBS News