Republicans Poised for Slim House Majority as Vulnerable Democrats Hold On in Midterms

By Wednesday morning, US media outlets had begun projecting that John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania, would win the state's Senate seat. The seat had previously been held by Republicans, so the call meant Democrats would take a seat from the other side. It was the biggest development of the night for Joe Biden's party, and it came as counting continued across the country.

The broader picture was one of a party doing better than expected. Across House, Senate and governor's races, Democrats outperformed what both pollsters and the media had anticipated. That was notable given the backdrop: the president is more unpopular than popular, and polls had suggested Americans were deeply unhappy about the economy and the cost of living. Even so, Democratic senators and members of Congress in places such as New Hampshire and Virginia, who had been judged vulnerable, held on.

In New York, governor Kathy Hochul was re-elected in a contest that had looked far closer than expected in a strongly Democratic state. She had called in Biden and Bill and Hillary Clinton to campaign for her in the final stretch.

Republicans may still win back the House of Representatives once counting finishes, but the majority now looks much slimmer than they had hoped. At one point, before the supreme court ruling that eliminated the federal constitutional right to abortion, Republicans had been predicting a majority of as many as 60 seats. In the early hours of Wednesday, party strategists were talking about gaining perhaps 20 seats, enough for a comfortable majority. Other observers suggested the margin could be thinner still. Senator Lindsey Graham, a senior Republican, conceded on US television that it was "definitely not a Republican wave, that is for darn sure", though he still forecast his party would retake both the Senate and the House.

The Senate remains undecided. It will come down to Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The chamber's control for the next two years could ultimately be settled by a run-off in Georgia next month, which would happen if the Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger Herschel Walker both fail to reach 50 per cent of the vote.

The night's clearest winner may be Florida governor Ron DeSantis. He crushed his Democratic opponent, and Republicans used redrawn districts in the state to pick up important extra House seats. There is strong speculation that he is eyeing a White House run, even though Donald Trump is likely to declare his own candidacy as early as next week. On Tuesday Trump effectively warned DeSantis off, saying that if he ran, "I will tell you things about him that won't be very flattering," and adding that he knows more about DeSantis than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who he said is really running the campaign.

A small majority could create trouble for Kevin McCarthy, expected to become speaker if Republicans win the House, because the votes of the party's more extreme members would become far more important to him. For Biden, even a narrow Republican House would bring problems. His domestic agenda would likely face opposition, and Republicans may demand spending cuts that would be hugely unpopular among Democrats. Investigations are also expected, on subjects ranging from the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan to the business dealings of his son Hunter Biden. Attempts to impeach the president are possible, perhaps likely.

History makes the result look better for Biden. New presidents typically suffer in their first midterms: Barack Obama lost the House in 2010, as did Trump in 2018. Early results suggest Biden will fare better than either, though he may lose the House too. Asked on Monday night, returning to the White House from his last pre-election rally, what awaited him under a Republican Congress, he said it would be "more difficult". The count in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada will show how much.