On a Tuesday afternoon in Sydney, the Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to let its cash rate rest at 3.6%, a pause that most observers had already come to expect. The reason lies in the quarter's inflation figures, which ran hotter than anticipated and quietly dismantled any hope of a Melbourne Cup Day cut. For a nation whose households carry their mortgages on the rhythm of these decisions, the moment is a reminder of how much of ordinary life turns on a single number set by a few people in a room. What remains open is how the bank reads the road ahead, and that story will emerge from its u
RBA Expected to Hold Cash Rate at 3.6% After Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation
A Melbourne Cup Day rate cut is effectively off the table.
Mark
So the headline is simple. The RBA is expected to hold at 3.6%. Why is that worth a morning's attention?
Mimi
Because the hold is the easy part. The inflation figures came in hotter than expected last week, and that is what took a cut off the table. The real interest is in the forecasts and in what the governor says afterwards.
Mark
What are the forecasts, exactly?
Mimi
They come in the Statement on Monetary Policy, released at 2:30pm AEDT, the same moment as the decision. It is the bank's updated quarterly outlook.
Luke
I'd flag that "widely expected" is carrying a lot here. It describes market and commentator expectations, not a confirmed outcome. Until 2:30pm, nobody outside the board knows.
Mark
Fair. And Governor Bullock speaks at 3:30pm?
Mimi
Yes. That is where listeners will look for any signal on future moves, though the source doesn't say what she will say.
Luke
Right, and the same goes for the forecasts. We know they are coming, not what they contain. Anyone predicting a rate path from this is guessing.
Mark
What about the market numbers?
Mimi
Modest moves. ASX futures were down 0.2 per cent to 8,889, and the Australian dollar was at 65.40 US cents. Wall Street was mixed overnight.
Luke
Those are early-morning snapshots at 7:00am AEDT. They tell you the mood before the announcement, not the reaction to it.
Il Polso
- Inflation came in hotter than expected, pushing a rate cut out of reach just as households and markets had been bracing for relief.
- Markets stepped cautiously into the session, with ASX futures sliding 0.2 per cent and the Australian dollar easing to 65.40 US cents.
- Attention now funnels toward the 2:30pm Statement on Monetary Policy, where the bank must show how it now sees inflation unfolding.
- Governor Michele Bullock's 3:30pm remarks are the next test, as every household with a mortgage or a savings account waits for a signal on what comes next.
On a Tuesday afternoon in Sydney, the Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to let its cash rate rest at 3.6%, a pause that most observers had already come to expect. The reason lies in the quarter's inflation figures, which ran hotter than anticipated and quietly dismantled any hope of a Melbourne Cup Day cut. For a nation whose households carry their mortgages on the rhythm of these decisions, the moment is a reminder of how much of ordinary life turns on a single number set by a few people in a room. What remains open is how the bank reads the road ahead, and that story will emerge from its updated forecasts and the Governor's words.
At 2:30pm AEDT on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its November decision, and nearly everyone expects the cash rate to stay exactly where it is at 3.6%. That means a rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day is effectively off the table. The cause is last week's quarterly inflation data, which came in hotter than forecasters had hoped and changed the mood heading into the meeting.
The decision is only part of the afternoon. The same moment brings the bank's Statement on Monetary Policy, with its fresh quarterly forecasts showing how it now reads the inflation outlook. Governor Michele Bullock then speaks at 3:30pm, her first opportunity to explain the board's reasoning in her own words.
The ABC's business team is running a live blog and inviting readers to share how they feel about interest rates, from homeowners and savers to renters and first-time buyers. The cash rate touches each of them differently, depending on which side of the ledger they sit.
Markets have been subdued. Wall Street closed mixed overnight, and local futures slipped as the Australian dollar eased. With a hold widely expected, the real focus has shifted to what the forecasts and the Governor reveal about where rates might head next.
At 2:30pm AEDT on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board will release its November interest rate decision, and the widespread expectation is that nothing will change. The cash rate is forecast to stay at 3.6%, which means a Melbourne Cup Day rate cut is effectively off the table.
The reason is last week's quarterly inflation data, which came in hotter than expected. That reading has shaped the mood going into the meeting, and it has pushed the prospect of an immediate cut out of view for most of those watching the central bank.
The rate decision is only part of the afternoon. At the same time, 2:30pm AEDT, the Reserve Bank will publish its Statement on Monetary Policy, which carries the bank's updated set of quarterly forecasts. Those forecasts will show how the bank now reads the inflation outlook after the latest figures. Governor Michele Bullock will then speak at 3:30pm AEDT, giving her first chance to explain the board's thinking in her own words.
The ABC's business reporters are following the day on a live markets blog, and they have invited readers to say how they feel about interest rates right now. The invitation covers home owners with mortgages, savers, renters, would-be buyers, retirees and anyone in between, a reminder that the cash rate lands differently depending on which side of the ledger a household sits on.
Markets were subdued ahead of the announcement. Wall Street closed mixed overnight: the Dow Jones fell 0.2 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.2 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5 per cent.
That set a cautious tone for the local session. At 7:00am AEDT, ASX futures were down 14 points, or 0.2 per cent, at 8,889. The Australian dollar was off 0.1 per cent at 65.40 US cents.
Commodities were also moving modestly. Brent crude rose 0.2 per cent to US$64.88 a barrel, and spot gold gained 0.1 per cent to US$4,005.19. Iron ore, a key Australian export, fell 1.3 per cent to US$104.75 a tonne.
The decision itself is widely expected to be a hold, so the attention falls on the forecasts released alongside it and on what Governor Bullock says at 3:30pm about where rates could go from here.
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Politics & Governance