Oil markets this week held two truths at once: a hope that the long and grinding US-Israeli war with Iran might finally ease, and the stubborn fact that the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz remain in Iran's grip and under attack. A political shift in Washington, where Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, sent crude tumbling as traders imagined a path toward peace. Yet the sea itself kept insisting on its own reality, and the rebound that followed suggests that hope alone cannot set the price of a barrel.
Oil Heads for Sharp Weekly Drop, but Hormuz Tanker Attacks Keep Prices Supported
Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz and is unlikely to relinquish it
Mark
Oil fell about 12% this week. Why did an American election move it that much?
Mimi
Traders bet that Democrats winning the Senate and House could lead to de-escalation of the war with Iran, now in its ninth month. Oil dropped 8% on Wednesday alone and settled at two-month lows.
Mark
But it bounced back. What changed?
Mimi
Tanker attacks surged on Wednesday and Thursday in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said three more tankers were hit on Thursday.
Luke
Careful with the causality there. The source says traders expected de-escalation after the vote. It doesn't show that Congress can actually change the course of the war.
Mimi
Fair. It's an expectation priced in, not a policy shift that has happened.
Mark
And the Hormuz numbers?
Mimi
ANZ's Daniel Hynes says flows are under 60% of capacity and that Iran keeps control of the strait.
Luke
That's one strategist's assessment, including the claim that Iran is unlikely to relinquish control. The attack pace comes from UKMTO data, described as close to record, but no exact count is given.
Mark
So is $100 Brent a floor?
Luke
Nobody can say yet. Brent is near $99.86 after two up days, and the weekly drop is still 12%. Whether supply fears hold the price depends on events not yet known.
O Pulso
- Brent crude plunged about 12% over the week after the Democratic midterm sweep raised hopes of an end to the Iran war.
- Oil fell 8% in a single day on Wednesday, hitting two-month lows as traders rushed to price in de-escalation.
- Tanker attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz surged Wednesday and Thursday, pulling prices back up for a second straight day.
- Iran says three more tankers were struck, and UKMTO data shows attacks running near record pace.
- Hormuz flows remain below 60% of capacity, and analysts doubt Iran will surrender control of the strait.
Oil markets this week held two truths at once: a hope that the long and grinding US-Israeli war with Iran might finally ease, and the stubborn fact that the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz remain in Iran's grip and under attack. A political shift in Washington, where Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, sent crude tumbling as traders imagined a path toward peace. Yet the sea itself kept insisting on its own reality, and the rebound that followed suggests that hope alone cannot set the price of a barrel.
By Friday morning in Asia, Brent crude for January delivery had climbed to just under $100 a barrel, and WTI had risen to about $91.60. Both contracts were rising for a second straight day, yet the week as a whole had been brutal for anyone holding oil. Brent was on course to shed roughly 12 percent, and WTI a similar amount.
The slide began on Tuesday, when American voters handed Democrats control of both the Senate and the House, taking power from President Donald Trump's Republicans. Traders saw in the result a possible opening toward ending the US-Israeli war against Iran, which is now in its ninth month. Oil dropped 8 percent on Wednesday alone and settled at two-month lows.
But the sea had its say. Tanker attacks surged on Wednesday and Thursday in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the passage through which most Middle Eastern oil must travel. Iran reported that three more tankers had been hit on Thursday, and data from the UK maritime security agency suggested attacks were still running close to a record pace. Prices rebounded as doubts returned about how much crude could safely leave the region.
Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, described Wednesday's selloff as overdone. The political hope had pushed prices down, he said, but Thursday brought the hard reality home. Iran, in his view, keeps control of the strait and is unlikely to let it go, and flows through it remain below 60 percent of capacity.
The market is now caught between political hope and a constrained, dangerous shipping lane. The numbers to watch are how often tankers are attacked and whether Hormuz traffic recovers. Only those will show whether this week's rebound can become a lasting floor under prices.
By 0222 GMT on Friday, Brent crude futures for January delivery were trading at $99.86 a barrel, up $1.57, or 1.6%. US West Texas Intermediate had climbed $1.10, or 1.22%, to $91.62. It was the second straight daily gain for both contracts, but the week as a whole still looked punishing for anyone holding oil.
Brent was on track to lose 12% over the week, measured against the point after the December contract expired on October 30. WTI was set to fall 12.1%. The slide began with Tuesday's US Congressional elections, in which Democrats took both the Senate and the House of Representatives from President Donald Trump's Republicans.
Traders read the result as a possible step toward de-escalation of the US-Israeli war against Iran, now in its ninth month. The market moved fast on that reading. Oil dropped 8% on Wednesday alone, after the Democratic sweep, and settled at two-month lows.
Then the physical world intruded. Tanker attacks surged on Wednesday and Thursday in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the sea passage that carries most Middle Eastern oil shipments. Prices rebounded as the attacks renewed worries about how much crude would actually get out of the region.
Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note on Friday that traders had come to see Wednesday's selloff as overdone. Prices had been pressured by the Democratic wins, he said, but Thursday's trading brought the reality of the situation home. In his assessment, Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz and is unlikely to give that control up. He added that overall flows through the strait are below 60% of capacity.
The attacks themselves continued. Iran said on Thursday that three more tankers had been hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Data from UKMTO, the UK maritime security agency, suggested that attacks on tankers are still running at close to a record pace.
The week leaves oil in a tug between two forces: political hope that the war might wind down, and a shipping lane that remains constrained and dangerous. The figures to watch are how often tankers are attacked and whether flows through Hormuz climb back from under 60% of capacity. Those will show whether this week's rebound holds as a lasting floor.
Citações Notáveis
Crude oil rebounded as traders viewed Wednesday's selloff as overdone.— Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ
Quer a matéria completa?
Leia o original em News18 ↗
Politics & Governance