In the cold calculus of deterrence, North Korea has once again reminded the world of its growing reach — firing long-range cruise missiles for the third time in January 2024, claiming the Hwasal-2 can strike U.S. bases in Japan. This is not merely a weapons test but a message, carefully timed and deliberately repeated, from a leadership that has spent years building the means to demand recognition on its own terms. The Korean Peninsula finds itself at one of its most volatile junctures in recent memory, as Kim Jong Un accelerates a testing campaign designed to reshape the strategic conversatio
North Korea tests long-range cruise missiles amid escalating weapons development
Each test is a message—to the world that he's a power to negotiate with
Mark
Why does North Korea keep testing these missiles? What's the strategic point of announcing them?
Mimi
Kim wants the world to see that his arsenal is real and growing. Each test is a message—to his own people, to the U.S., to Japan and South Korea. He's building a case that he's a nuclear power that has to be negotiated with.
Luke
But we should note that North Korea's claims about range and capability aren't independently verified. South Korea detected the launches, but the specifics about the Hwasal-2—the 2,000 kilometer range, the nuclear capability—those come only from North Korean state media.
Mark
So we don't actually know if these missiles work as advertised?
Mimi
Right. We know they're being tested. We know they're being launched. But the performance details, the accuracy, whether they can actually deliver a warhead—that's all North Korean assertion at this point.
Luke
And that matters for understanding the actual threat level versus the perceived threat level, which are two different things.
Mark
What about the timing? Three tests in one month seems aggressive.
Mimi
It does. And it's happening while the U.S. and South Korea are in an election year. Kim may be calculating that there's political space to push harder right now, that neither country wants a major crisis during campaign season.
Luke
Though we should be careful about assuming Kim's calendar is driven by American and South Korean elections. He's been accelerating weapons tests for years. The pattern predates the election cycle.
Mark
Fair point. So what does he actually want?
Mimi
Ultimately, recognition. He wants the U.S. to accept that North Korea is a nuclear power and negotiate with him on that basis. Right now, the U.S. position is that denuclearization has to come first. Kim wants to flip that—negotiate first, then maybe talk about disarmament.
Luke
And there's no sign that's changed. Diplomacy has been frozen for years. These tests are happening in that vacuum.
Il Polso
- North Korea fired long-range cruise missiles for the third time in a single month, with state media claiming the nuclear-capable Hwasal-2 can reach U.S. military installations in Japan at a range of 2,000 kilometers.
- The launches form part of a relentless testing tempo — at least eleven long-range cruise missile rounds since 2021 — spanning land, sea, and submarine platforms, each test expanding the envelope of threat.
- Earlier January tests of the submarine-launched Pulhwasal-3-31 and a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile signal a deliberate push to cover every strategic target from Seoul to Guam.
- Washington and its allies have responded by intensifying joint exercises and revising deterrence postures, but analysts warn these measures have not slowed Kim's momentum.
- With U.S. and South Korean elections approaching, experts fear Kim will escalate further — pressing for formal recognition as a nuclear state and leveraging political uncertainty to extract security concessions.
In the cold calculus of deterrence, North Korea has once again reminded the world of its growing reach — firing long-range cruise missiles for the third time in January 2024, claiming the Hwasal-2 can strike U.S. bases in Japan. This is not merely a weapons test but a message, carefully timed and deliberately repeated, from a leadership that has spent years building the means to demand recognition on its own terms. The Korean Peninsula finds itself at one of its most volatile junctures in recent memory, as Kim Jong Un accelerates a testing campaign designed to reshape the strategic conversation before election seasons in Washington and Seoul.
North Korea announced on Wednesday that it had tested long-range cruise missiles intended to sharpen its counterattack and strategic strike capabilities, with state media confirming the launch a day after South Korea's military detected multiple missiles fired into waters west of the peninsula. It was the third such test in as many weeks.
The weapon in question, the Hwasal-2, was described by Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency as nuclear-capable with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers — enough to place U.S. military bases in Japan within reach. No details were offered on the number of missiles fired or their precise flight paths.
The test is part of a broader and accelerating pattern. Since 2021, North Korea has conducted at least eleven long-range cruise missile test rounds from land and sea platforms, building a layered arsenal that complements short-range missiles aimed at South Korea's air defenses and intercontinental ballistic missiles theoretically capable of reaching the American mainland. Earlier in January, two tests of the submarine-launched Pulhwasal-3-31 prompted Kim Jong Un to restate his ambition of building a nuclear-armed navy, and a separate solid-fuel intermediate-range missile test signaled intent to threaten U.S. assets as far as Guam.
Tensions on the peninsula are at their highest in years. Kim has paired his weapons advances with provocative nuclear rhetoric directed at the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, while Washington and its allies have responded with intensified joint exercises. Analysts point to Kim's deepening ties with Russia and his confidence in his nuclear progress as factors that may embolden further escalation — particularly as election years in both the United States and South Korea present what some see as a strategic opening.
The prevailing expert assessment is that Kim's ultimate aim is to force the United States to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power and negotiate from that acknowledged position — seeking security guarantees and sanctions relief. The current campaign's frequency and variety suggest a leadership determined to keep pressure applied on every front until that conversation begins.
North Korea announced Wednesday that it had tested long-range cruise missiles designed to strengthen its capacity for counterattack and strategic strikes. The declaration came through state media a day after South Korea's military confirmed that the North had fired multiple cruise missiles into waters west of the peninsula—the third such launch in as many weeks.
The weapon tested on Tuesday, according to North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, was the Hwasal-2. The state media offered no details about how many missiles were fired or specifics of their flight paths and performance. What the North did claim, however, was that the Hwasal-2 carries nuclear capability and has a range of up to 2,000 kilometers—a distance that would place U.S. military installations in Japan well within striking distance.
This latest test fits into a broader pattern of weapons development that has accelerated dramatically in recent years. North Korea has been systematically expanding its cruise missile inventory, designing these weapons to launch from both land and sea platforms. They function as a complement to an already substantial arsenal that includes short-range solid-fuel missiles aimed at overwhelming South Korea's air defenses, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles theoretically capable of reaching the American mainland. Since 2021 alone, North Korea has conducted at least eleven separate test rounds involving what it describes as long-range cruise missiles fired from various platforms.
The two previous tests earlier this month, on January 24 and January 28, involved a different system called the Pulhwasal-3-31, engineered specifically for submarine launch. After the second test of that weapon on Sunday, Kim Jong Un restated his intention to build a nuclear-armed navy as a counterweight to what he characterized as mounting external threats. Earlier in the month, on January 14, North Korea also tested a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile, signaling its push to develop weapons capable of threatening U.S. assets across the Pacific, particularly the strategic military installation at Guam.
Tensions across the Korean Peninsula have reached their highest level in years. Kim has pursued weapons development at an unprecedented tempo while issuing provocative nuclear threats directed at the United States, South Korea, and Japan. In response, Washington and its regional partners have intensified their joint military exercises and revised their deterrence postures. The concern among analysts centers on what Kim might do next, particularly given his apparent confidence stemming from steady advances in his nuclear capabilities and his deepening relationship with Russia. An election year looms in both the United States and South Korea, creating what some see as an opening for further escalation.
Experts assess that Kim's underlying objective is to compel the United States to formally recognize North Korea as a nuclear-armed state and then negotiate from that position of acknowledged strength—extracting security guarantees and relief from international sanctions. Whether the current testing campaign represents a step toward that goal or simply a demonstration of capability remains to be seen, but the frequency and variety of the tests suggest a leadership intent on keeping pressure applied across multiple fronts.
Citazioni salienti
North Korea claimed the Hwasal-2 test sharpened its counterattack and strategic strike capabilities— North Korean state media
Kim Jong Un reiterated his goal of building a nuclear-armed navy to counter growing external threats— Kim Jong Un, following January 28 test
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War & Conflict