No Clear Winner in Tight New Zealand Election as Coalition Talks Loom

When New Zealand's preliminary results came in on Saturday, neither of the country's two big parties could claim the win. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National Party finished with 42 seats, the largest share of any party, but still 19 short of the simple majority needed to govern alone. Both major leaders now face negotiations to assemble a coalition.

The projected seat count runs as follows: National 42, Labour 36, the Greens 16, ACT 13, New Zealand First 12, the Opportunity Party 7, and Te Pāti Māori, which represents Māori interests, 5. If National can strike a deal with its coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First, the three would hold a slim lead over the left-leaning bloc. But that arithmetic depends on talks that have not yet begun in earnest.

Opposition leader Chris Hipkins, whose Labour Party took 36 seats, gave no sign of conceding. He said the shape of the next government would stay uncertain "for a while", and added: "the people have spoken. It may take a bit longer to work out what they've said." He said the next parliament would require all parties to compromise, work together and find common ground.

Luxon congratulated Hipkins on a "very hard-fought race" before speaking to party colleagues, telling them they could be proud of everyone whatever the final count. He said he would run a caretaker government until final results are confirmed, so that "meaningful negotiations" can follow. The electoral commission is not due to announce the official result until 27 November.

More than 99% of votes have been counted, with National and Labour neck-and-neck on vote share. What stands out is how little of the vote the two big parties took: a combined share of around 60%, which preliminary figures show to be historically low. The Greens, who proposed forcing the two main supermarket chains to divest stores to create publicly owned shops, raised their vote by a couple of percentage points.

The Opportunity Party crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time. It has been described as this election's kingmaker, since it is open to working with either bloc, though its leaders said they would negotiate first with whichever party wins the most seats. Leader Qiulae Wong told supporters at the party's watch party: "We believe that we can change the way we do politics to focus on the future, on the next generation, and on finding common ground."

Andrew Geddis, an election law expert at the University of Otago, called Opportunity a wildcard that could determine which bloc governs. He said the outcome would turn on very fine margins, not only between parties but in individual electorates, and that special votes, which are cast outside a voter's own electorate, including overseas, will be processed and counted over the next three weeks.

The campaign was shaped by the cost of living and unemployment. Julian McCrann, head of polling at Roy Morgan, told BBC News that cost of living was the main concern for many New Zealanders. "Three years ago, Luxon came in saying he'd be making New Zealanders' lives better and solving these economic issues, but he hasn't really delivered," he said. An annual social cohesion survey found more than half of the country no longer sees New Zealand as a land of opportunity, and record numbers of New Zealanders have been leaving, many for Australia.

Coalitions are the norm under the mixed-member proportional system, in which each voter makes two choices: a local representative and a party. This time the margins are unusually fine. The special votes and the 27 November result will show which bloc, and which smaller party, holds the balance.