No. 4 Duke Visits No. 8 Michigan State: Betting Lines, Picks and the Case for an Under

Noon Eastern on Saturday, the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan, hosts a game between two unbeaten teams: No. 4 Duke, 9-0, and No. 8 Michigan State, 8-0. The game airs on FOX, and the rankings cited come from the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

As of 10:18 a.m. ET, BetMGM Sportsbook had Duke as a narrow favorite. On the moneyline, Duke was at -135, meaning a $135 bet wins $100, while Michigan State was at +110, meaning $100 wins $110. Against the spread, Duke was favored by 1.5 points at -110 on both sides. The over/under was set at 142.5, with both sides at -110.

Both teams arrive off Tuesday night games that told very different stories. Duke held off Florida 67-66 at home after guard Isaiah Evans hit a go-ahead three-pointer with 19.7 seconds left. The Blue Devils did not cover as 9.5-point favorites, and the game stayed under the total of 156.5. Forward Cameron Boozer carried the offense with 29 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal.

Michigan State opened Big Ten play with a 71-52 win over Iowa, covering as a 5.5-point home favorite while the game also stayed under its 132.5 total. The Spartans shot 50% from the field. Forward Coen Carr led them with 15 points, and forward Jaxon Kohler added a double-double of 12 points and 11 rebounds. Michigan State is off to its best start in 10 years and already has wins over North Carolina, Kentucky and Arkansas.

The column's prediction is Michigan State 69, Duke 66, and it recommends the Spartans on the moneyline at +110. The reasoning is that Boozer has been excellent but the help around him has been inconsistent. Duke barely survived Florida at home, and in the second half against Arkansas the writer says the Blue Devils were essentially running a three-man offense. The writer doubts that kind of uneven support travels well, especially to the Breslin Center.

The case for Michigan State rests on defense and temperament. The writer describes the Spartans as physical, disciplined and experienced, a team that rebounds well, controls pace and does not rattle easily. The argument is that those traits tend to trouble young stars like Boozer in hostile arenas. Guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is credited with running the team at an elite level, giving Michigan State the steady guard play the writer says Duke has not yet shown.

On the spread, the writer passes, noting that anyone wanting extra cushion could take Michigan State at +1.5 but preferring the plus-money moneyline. On the total, the pick is the Under 142.5 at -115. The writer says both teams lead their conferences in scoring defense and routinely hold opponents under 61 points. The Under is a combined 14-3 across the two programs, and Michigan State home games at Breslin have gone Under in four of five. The writer also expects coach Tom Izzo to dial up pressure on Duke's freshman star.

What to watch Saturday is whether anyone besides Boozer gives Duke consistent scoring on the road, and whether Michigan State's defense can keep the game in the low-scoring range the column expects.