Netanyahu's Fate Hinges on Arab Turnout, Ultra-Orthodox Draft, and a Possible Stalemate

Israelis have begun voting in an election that will decide who governs them next, three years into a war fought on several fronts. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader and head of the Likud party, is trying to keep his job. Nobody can promise him, or his opponents, a fast or clean result.

The polls disagree with one another. Right-leaning pollsters give the edge to Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing and religious parties, while left-leaning pollsters favor the so-called change bloc that opposes him. Most surveys agree that neither side is likely to take a decisive majority of the 120 Knesset seats, the kind that would let it form a government alone. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, put it plainly: an indecisive outcome looks like the most likely one.

This is the first election since Hamas's attacks of Oct. 7, 2023. Israel is still fighting in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and has been through two direct rounds of conflict with Iran. Netanyahu wants to rebuild a coalition much like his current one, which depends on ultranationalist and Jewish religious parties. He makes two arguments. Only he, he says, can govern without the support of Israel's Arab parties, whom he portrays as a danger if they gain influence over the country's wars. And he says the campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and above all Iran are unfinished and he needs more time.

President Trump backed him strongly last week, reaffirming support for the war the two leaders launched against Iran almost eight months ago. He also warned that if Israel has any leader other than Netanyahu, America would have to do the work itself, and that he is not inclined to. Netanyahu has since argued that only he can work with Trump to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, a prospect many Israelis regard as existential. His rhyming Hebrew slogan runs: either right wing or Palestine, either right wing or a nuclear bomb. Over the weekend he posted an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv. Supporter Benny Abraham, a restaurant owner, told CBS News that Netanyahu can handle the whole world and is the king of Israel.

Opposing him is a mixed alliance of Arab, right, left and center parties whose one shared aim is removing Netanyahu. Its likely leader, if it wins enough seats, is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who heads the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews serving in the military in Gaza, and sat in the war cabinet with Netanyahu for much of the war's first year. About half his party's candidates are women. On Monday he accused Netanyahu of relying on fear-mongering, lies and threats, including nuclear images over Tel Aviv, and said it would not work this time. He has promised a state inquiry into the failures that allowed Oct. 7, which Netanyahu has so far blocked. Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old Tel Aviv engineer, called Eisenkot straight and honest, and the only real alternative.

Turnout may decide it, and polls are poor at predicting it. Likud voters and Arab Israeli voters, who are about 20% of the population, have historically varied the most in their enthusiasm. Plesner said that the higher the Arab turnout, the less likely Netanyahu can form another government with his current coalition. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in Baqa al Gharbiya, said more Arab voters will turn out to stop a government with far-right allies, calling the last four years a catastrophe and saying many feel they have no hope and no future. Two new parties, each hovering near the threshold for entering the Knesset, could also shift the balance. Both challenge Netanyahu's alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties by demanding that the community share in mandatory military service, an issue that splits his own base.

If neither bloc wins clearly, there are several paths. Lawmakers or parties could break promises and switch sides, which has precedent, after weeks of talks. The change bloc could try a minority government if it wins more seats than the other side, with Arab parties voting for it or abstaining. Or deadlock could force a new election; Israel held five between 2019 and 2022. Plesner said that if politicians hold to their pledges, the country will roll into another election, though he doubts most want that.