Netanyahu's Bloc Loses Majority as Israel Faces Weeks of Fraught Coalition Talks

The final results arrived early Friday, local time, and they settled one question while opening several harder ones. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies won 53 seats in Tuesday's election, short of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The main opposition bloc took 48. Arab-led parties won the remaining 19, a historic showing.

Neither side can govern without a deal, and the arithmetic is awkward for both. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, remains in charge for now. His main opponents would most likely need to partner with the Arab-led parties to replace him, a step that has happened only once before, briefly, in 2021.

On Friday that path looked narrower. Avigdor Lieberman, who leads the right-wing, anti-Netanyahu Yisrael Beitenu party, appeared to rule out any partnership with Arab-led parties. In a Facebook post he called them "supporters of terrorism" and said his party, which won seven seats, would not join them. Arab party leaders have condemned Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack but have declined to call it a terrorist organisation, in part because doing so would appear to justify Israel's devastating campaign in Gaza. Lieberman's stance alone would make it nearly impossible for Netanyahu's opponents to assemble a coalition to oust him. Netanyahu, for his part, again warned against forming a coalition with Arab parties.

The choice facing the main opposition is uncomfortable. Parties that campaigned hard to unseat Netanyahu must decide whether to make the politically sensitive move of partnering with Arab-led parties, or abandon their vows and join Netanyahu in a potentially fractious unity government. Israel largely shuts down on Friday for the Jewish Sabbath, so it was unclear who might be meeting with whom. Israelis debated the options, some voicing traditional wariness of Arab parties, others insisting it was time for Jewish-led parties to embrace them. Hundreds have rallied urging Gadi Eisenkot and others to join forces with the Arab parties. "I believe we should join forces and cooperate with the Arab parties, a legitimate population in the state of Israel," said Miri Sklair, a Jaffa resident. Issa Jaber Abu-Ghosh, a former mayor of an Arab village outside Jerusalem, said Israel constantly claims to be the Middle East's only democracy, but is not a real one if its politics stay divided between Jews and Arabs.

In the hours before the results were announced, Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified unsubstantiated allegations that Arab-led parties had "stolen" the election, potentially with foreign help. The opposition accused him of demonising Arab citizens, who make up 20% of the population and turned out at the polls like never before, angered by his far-right government. Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, who heads the election committee, said "serious suspicions" of foreign interference had been brought to him. In a letter to the Shin Bet, he said he could not verify them and asked the agency to investigate. Israeli media reported that Likud members accused Qatar, which called the allegation "ridiculous and dangerous." Many Israelis see Qatar as a patron of Hamas; Qatar says its ties to the group are part of US-backed mediation.

The committee said the inquiry rests on classified intelligence. Acting Director General Dean Livne said it does not affect the final results going to the president and does not concern any sector of the population, and called reports about it entirely unfounded. A letter to a concerned lawmaker called allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity baseless. The Shin Bet said its probe was not meant to cast aspersions on a section of the population that voted lawfully. The committee wants findings within a week. By casting doubt on the vote, Netanyahu appeared to be trying to block any alliance between his rivals and Arab parties; he has suggested it would be treasonous for Eisenkot or others to join them.

The formal steps are fixed. Results must be certified and submitted to President Isaac Herzog next Wednesday, and he will then task someone with forming a government, either the leader of the largest party, Netanyahu, or whoever party leaders think best suited. If repeated attempts fail, Israel faces another election early next year, which Herzog said this week he will do everything to avoid.

The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in November 10. Once it convenes, Eisenkot's bloc could join Arab parties to elect a new speaker, gaining control of the agenda and possibly passing legislation before any government forms. The stakes for Netanyahu are personal: losing office would weaken him as his corruption trial continues, and an official inquiry into the security failures around October 7 would almost certainly follow.