On an election night that tilted toward a familiar figure's return, Israel's voters left a country divided in its own reflection, as exit polls placed Benjamin Netanyahu within reach of a narrow governing majority. Such early estimates are only shadows of the final count, and in a Knesset where a single seat can decide who governs, the true shape of the mandate remains unsettled. It is the kind of moment where a nation's long argument with itself becomes briefly visible: who should lead, and at what cost to the tone of public life.
Netanyahu Nears Return to Power as Exit Polls Point to Razor-Thin Knesset Majority
A majority of one or two seats leaves almost no room for movement.
Mark
So what actually happened on election night?
Mimi
Exit polls from several TV broadcasters showed Netanyahu's bloc winning 61 or 62 of the 120 Knesset seats. That's enough to govern, barely.
Luke
Barely is the key word. These are exit polls, not counted votes. The final tally isn't expected until later in the week.
Mark
What could change it?
Mimi
Balad, an Arab party, was close to the electoral threshold. If it gets in, it adds two seats to the anti-Netanyahu side.
Luke
And that could erase his majority. But note the wording: close to the threshold. Nobody has said it passed.
Mark
Why does Ben-Gvir matter so much here?
Mimi
He was projected to finish third, which could make him a kingmaker. He wants to be police and security minister, and he has a conviction for supporting terrorism.
Luke
Projected is doing a lot of work there too. We know what he has said he wants. Whether Netanyahu would give him that post is not in the reporting.
Mark
And the bigger context?
Mimi
Fifth election in under four years, with Netanyahu trying to return while on trial for corruption and fraud, charges he strongly denies.
Luke
Right, and that trial is still unresolved. The polls tell us nothing about how it ends.
Il Polso
- Exit polls put Netanyahu's bloc at 61 or 62 seats, a majority so thin that one or two votes could reverse it.
- Balad hovers at the electoral threshold, and if it clears, the opposition gains two seats and the new government's footing crumbles.
- Far-right figure Itamar Ben-Gvir, convicted for supporting terrorism, stands poised to become a kingmaker in coalition talks.
- The fifth election in under four years has left voters choosing between a cautious incumbent and a comeback under corruption trial, with the final tally not expected until later in the week.
On an election night that tilted toward a familiar figure's return, Israel's voters left a country divided in its own reflection, as exit polls placed Benjamin Netanyahu within reach of a narrow governing majority. Such early estimates are only shadows of the final count, and in a Knesset where a single seat can decide who governs, the true shape of the mandate remains unsettled. It is the kind of moment where a nation's long argument with itself becomes briefly visible: who should lead, and at what cost to the tone of public life.
Late on election night in Israel, television exit polls suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu could return to power. Several broadcasters projected that the parties backing him would win 61 or 62 of the 120 Knesset seats, enough to govern, but only just.
Analysts were quick to temper the excitement. Exit polls are early estimates, not results, and with a majority this slim, the count could move as the real votes came in. Meanwhile, the Arab party Balad was hovering near the threshold needed to enter parliament. If it cleared the bar, it would add two seats to the opposition and could strip Netanyahu of the majority the polls had just offered.
The night also belonged to Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose extreme right-wing party was projected to finish third in votes. A man once convicted for supporting terrorism, and who had moved from the political fringe into the mainstream during the campaign, he now looks set to be a kingmaker. He has said he wants to serve as police and security minister in a new Netanyahu government, and his demands will weigh heavily in the coalition talks ahead.
This was Israel's fifth election in under four years. Voters faced a choice between the cautious, compromise-minded incumbent Yair Lapid and the return of Netanyahu, whose tenure has been deeply divisive and whose comeback unfolds while he faces corruption and fraud charges, which he denies. For now, the picture remains provisional, and the count will decide whether the majority holds.
Late on election night in Israel, television exit polls put Benjamin Netanyahu within reach of a political comeback. Several broadcasters projected that the bloc of parties backing the former prime minister would win 61 or 62 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Either number would be enough to form a government, though only by the narrowest of margins.
The caution attached to those figures is considerable. Analysts said the numbers could shift overnight as real votes were counted, and the final tally was not expected until later in the week. Exit polls are an early estimate, not a result, and a majority of one or two seats leaves almost no room for movement.
One possible movement was already visible. The Arab party Balad was close to clearing the electoral threshold needed to enter parliament. If it did, it would add two seats to the anti-Netanyahu camp, and that could cost Netanyahu the majority the polls had just handed him.
The polls also pointed to a striking result for Itamar Ben-Gvir, the extreme right-wing leader, who was projected to finish with the third-highest number of votes. Ben-Gvir has a conviction for supporting terrorism. A showing like that could make him a kingmaker in the coalition negotiations of the coming weeks, and he has said he wants to serve as police and security minister in a new Netanyahu government.
Over the course of the campaign, Ben-Gvir moved from the fringe into the Israeli mainstream. He once called for "disloyal" Arabs to be expelled from Israel. More recently he was filmed brandishing a pistol while giving an inflammatory speech about "Arab terrorists" in Sheikh Jarrah, a Palestinian neighbourhood in occupied East Jerusalem.
The vote was Israel's fifth election in less than four years. Voters were choosing between the incumbent prime minister, Yair Lapid, described as a cautious, compromise-led leader, and a return to the rule of Netanyahu, whose time in office has been deeply divisive. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, mounted his comeback while on trial on corruption and fraud charges, which he strongly denies. He and his wife Sara cast their ballots in Jerusalem.
For now, the picture is provisional. The count will decide whether Netanyahu's bloc holds 61 or 62 seats, and whether Balad crosses the threshold. If the majority survives, the first test will be the coalition talks, where Ben-Gvir's demands will carry real weight.
Citazioni salienti
Analysts predicted the numbers could change overnight as votes are counted.— Analysts, as reported by the Telegraph
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