Israeli Exit Polls Show Deadlock, Dealing Setback to Netanyahu's Bloc

Long lines stood outside polling stations across Israel on Tuesday, and when voting closed, the exit polls pointed to a deadlock. Israel's first election since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed, appeared to leave neither side with a clear route to power. If the projections hold, it is a setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel's three major networks updated their exit polls to give the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot a two-seat edge over Netanyahu's Likud-led camp, 52 to 50. The remaining 18 seats in the 120-seat Knesset went to unaligned Arab parties. That is where Eisenkot's difficulty lies: the leader of the Yashar party has all but ruled out forming a government with them, which complicates his path to a majority despite the lead. Still, the size of his bloc could give him the first chance to try to assemble a coalition.

Not every outlet agreed. Some Israeli media, including the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14, projected a far stronger result for Netanyahu and his allies, with 60 seats collectively. Final results could take days. No single party has ever won 61 seats outright, so coalitions are the norm, and smaller parties can end up as kingmakers. A stalemate could also help Netanyahu, who would stay in office in a caretaker capacity while parties negotiate.

Turnout was 77.7%, according to the Central Elections Committee, the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points above the 2022 election. Voters were grappling with the trauma of Israel's deadliest day, when Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage, and with the wars with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Netanyahu had urged supporters to turn out to offset high participation among his opponents on the left and among Arab Israelis. "You all need to stream to the polls," he said. "This is a fateful moment." He campaigned with the endorsement of US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran, who has said they should "finish the job."

Opposition leaders read the exit polls as a rebuke. Yair Lapid, the current opposition head, said the Netanyahu bloc had suffered a "crushing defeat" and that the public had told it to go home. At the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth, an alliance of several Arab parties, staff and supporters burst into whistles and applause when the polls were released, on a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Candidate Faten Gattas told the gathering, "We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here." Candidates hope high Arab participation can help keep Netanyahu's coalition, the most far right in Israel's history, from returning to power.

Eisenkot, 66, is a hawkish former military chief who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He entered politics only four years ago, joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the 2023 attack, and quit eight months later, criticizing the prime minister's leadership. He has emerged as Netanyahu's strongest challenger, stressing his security credentials while presenting himself as a centrist at home. He offers a break with Netanyahu and his far-right allies, but not with hardened security views: he opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas's military wing must be destroyed or dismantled.

Netanyahu, 77, has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years. He entered this race facing longstanding corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over the intelligence failures that let the 2023 attack happen. He argues he made Israel and the world safer by assassinating top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. His opponents have removed him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years, and he returned eighteen months later.

What matters now is the official count, expected over the coming days, and whether either side can find the seats for a majority without the other's partners.