On a Tuesday in late October, Israelis go to the polls with their country still carrying the weight of the October 7 attack and the wars that followed it in Gaza and Lebanon. Benjamin Netanyahu, long the dominant figure in Israeli politics, seeks another term from a weaker footing than he has known in years, as voters who once rallied around him now weigh their grievances against a fractured field of rivals. Because Israel's proportional system turns every election into a negotiation over alliances, the question is less who gathers the most votes than whether any coalition can be stitched toge
Netanyahu Faces Tough Israeli Election as Likud Slips and Fragmented Opposition Struggles to Unite
The article references the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the subsequent wars in Gaza and Lebanon, but it does not give casualty or displacement figures.
The outcome will turn on which parties can assemble a majority together
Mark
Why does this election feel so open if Likud is the biggest party?
Mimi
Because Israelis vote for parties, not a leader directly. Seats follow vote share, so the winner is whoever can stitch together a majority, not whoever finishes first.
Mark
And the opposition can't just do that?
Mimi
It's crowded and divided. Bennett and Lapid, Eisenkot, Lieberman and Golan span centre, hard right and left. They did unite in 2021 to remove Netanyahu, so there's precedent.
Luke
Careful, though. The reporting says Likud has slipped and the race has narrowed. It gives no actual poll numbers or seat projections, so how big the slide is, we can't say.
Mark
What about the smaller parties?
Mimi
Raam, the Joint List, People of Israel and Reservists don't clearly sit in either bloc. Their seats and their willingness to negotiate could decide who governs.
Luke
And two of those, People of Israel and Reservists, have fluctuated in polls. Nothing here says which way they'd lean, or whether the Arab parties would join any coalition.
Mark
Where do the ultra-Orthodox parties fit?
Mimi
Shas and United Torah Judaism have backed Netanyahu, but their push for military service exemptions is a real strain in wartime.
Luke
Whether that strain changes their coalition choices is not reported. It's a tension, not a forecast.
El Pulso
- Likud has bled support in the polls since the October 7 attack, leaving Netanyahu fighting for a position he once held with ease.
- Opposition leaders from Bennett and Lapid to Eisenkot and Lieberman are competing for the same disillusioned voters while offering sharply different visions of security and the state's direction.
- Netanyahu's path to power runs through hard-right partners and ultra-Orthodox parties whose demands on military service and settlements could fracture any coalition they join.
- Arab parties and new right-wing and centrist lists hold the balance of seats, and the outcome may hinge on which side, if any, they are willing to back.
- The race has tightened as election day approached, so the final tally will decide whether Netanyahu stays on as caretaker or a rival assembles a majority.
On a Tuesday in late October, Israelis go to the polls with their country still carrying the weight of the October 7 attack and the wars that followed it in Gaza and Lebanon. Benjamin Netanyahu, long the dominant figure in Israeli politics, seeks another term from a weaker footing than he has known in years, as voters who once rallied around him now weigh their grievances against a fractured field of rivals. Because Israel's proportional system turns every election into a negotiation over alliances, the question is less who gathers the most votes than whether any coalition can be stitched together into a durable majority.
Israelis vote on Tuesday in an election that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enters weaker than at any point in years. His Likud party has lost ground since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the wars in Gaza and Lebanon have left many voters angry, even as the race has narrowed in recent weeks. Netanyahu, 77, faces corruption charges he denies and an International Criminal Court warrant over Gaza, which he rejects. He has said that if he wins he wants a broad national government, and if no bloc forms a majority he could remain as caretaker while talks continue.
Proportional representation makes the arithmetic as important as the ballot itself. Seats are divided by party share, so the real contest is over which parties can join together. Challengers are trying to convert discontent into votes. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who lost a son in Gaza, leads the new centrist Yashar party. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have joined forces under the banner Together, promising to heal a divided country. Avigdor Lieberman, once Netanyahu's ally, now attacks him from the hawkish side, while Yair Golan leads the left-leaning Democrats.
Netanyahu's own路线 has relied on partners further right. Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have pushed settlement expansion, harsher treatment of Palestinian prisoners and proposals to resettle Gaza, drawing wide international criticism. He has also depended on ultra-Orthodox parties whose exemptions from military service remain a bitter wartime issue. Yet the decisive voices may be smaller ones: Arab parties representing about a fifth of the population, and newer right-wing and centrist lists whose choices could tip the balance. Whether any bloc reaches a majority will decide what comes next.
Voters in Israel go to the polls on Tuesday in an election that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is entering from a weaker position than he has held in years. His Likud party has lost ground in opinion polls, and the opposition, for all its energy, has not yet shown a clear route to a governing majority.
Netanyahu, 77, has led Israel for much of the period since 2009, after an earlier term in the 1990s. He is seeking another term while facing criticism over the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the wars that followed in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as Israel's airstrikes on Iran. Polls have shown a sharp drop in Likud support since that attack, though the race has tightened as election day approached. He is also wanted by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes in Gaza, which he rejects, and is on trial in Israel on corruption charges, which he denies. His government's positions on religion and the state have added to public discontent. If he wins, he has said he wants a broad national government. If no bloc reaches a majority, he could stay on as caretaker prime minister while parties negotiate.
The arithmetic matters as much as the vote. Israel uses proportional representation: voters choose parties, and seats are divided according to each party's share. That puts alliances and negotiations at the center of forming a government, so the outcome will turn not only on how many seats Likud wins but on which parties can assemble a majority together.
Several challengers are trying to turn dissatisfaction into votes. Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former military chief whose son was killed in combat in Gaza, leads a new centrist party called Yashar and presents himself as a security-minded outsider. Naftali Bennett, 54, a former commando, tech entrepreneur and prime minister who once worked with Netanyahu, has teamed up with former prime minister Yair Lapid in an alliance called Together. Their message is about uniting a divided country and restoring stability; the two had already joined forces in 2021 to remove Netanyahu from office.
Avigdor Lieberman, 68, is a former ally turned sharp critic. A former defence minister, he took a harder line than Netanyahu on Palestinian militants and quit the government in 2018, accusing the prime minister of being too soft on Gaza. His Israel Our Home party draws much of its support from former Soviet immigrants. On the left, Yair Golan, 64, a former general, leads the Democrats, a party formed from elements of the historic Labour movement and Meretz. He earned recognition for helping rescue people at one of the sites attacked on October 7. The opposition's differing views make a stable coalition hard to build.
Netanyahu's own survival has depended on partners further right. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, 46, has backed settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank and said he wants to bury the idea of a Palestinian state. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, 50, convicted of racist incitement against Arabs in 2007, has pushed for the death penalty for convicted Palestinian militants, harsher prison conditions for Palestinian prisoners and easier gun access for Israelis. Both have supported expelling Palestinians from Gaza and resettling it with Israelis, and both have drawn international criticism. Their seats could matter if Netanyahu needs them to reach a majority.
He has also leaned on two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. Their demands for exemptions from compulsory military service have become a flashpoint during wartime, and debate continues over their communities' low workforce participation and reliance on state benefits. In a closely divided parliament, they could again prove decisive.
Parties outside the two main blocs may hold the final say. Raam and the Joint List represent Israel's Arab minority, around 20% of the population. The new right-wing People of Israel party and the centre-right Reservists party have both swung in the polls. Watch how many seats these smaller parties win and which side, if any, they are willing to back.
Citas Notables
He wants to form a broad national government if he wins.— Benjamin Netanyahu, as reported
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