From a security conference in Tallinn, NATO's deputy commander has placed a name on what many have long sensed: Vladimir Putin, bloodied but unbroken by his war in Ukraine, is growing more willing to gamble with consequences. The warning arrives not as speculation but as documented fact — covert Russian operations across Europe have more than tripled since early 2025, blurring the line between accident and act of war. In seeking to fracture Western unity rather than win on the battlefield, Putin has chosen a strategy designed to be difficult to see, difficult to prove, and difficult to answer
NATO commander warns Putin growing riskier as covert attacks on West escalate
a cornered animal, escalating activity in hopes of fracturing Western resolve
Mark
So what's actually changed here? NATO has been warning about Russian threats for years. Why does Stringer's assessment matter now?
Mimi
Because the scale and pace have shifted dramatically. We're talking about going from 59 incidents in March 2025 to over 210 by September—that's a fourfold increase in six months. And these aren't theoretical threats. There was an actual drone with explosives at a German airport. A sabotage plot at a British drone factory. Real infrastructure burning.
Luke
But here's what I want to flag: attribution is still murky. The Estonian fire and Bulgarian explosion haven't been publicly attributed to Russia. We know Russia is doing covert operations, but some of these incidents might be correlation, not causation.
Mark
Fair point. So how does Putin benefit from this? He's already fighting Ukraine.
Mimi
He's trying to break Western support for Ukraine by making NATO countries nervous about their own security. If he can convince Europe that backing Kyiv is too costly—that it invites Russian retaliation on their own soil—the alliance fractures.
Luke
Though the Baltic leaders—who have the most to lose—are saying direct military attack is unlikely. That's worth noting. They're not panicking.
Mark
Why would they be calm if the threat is real?
Mimi
Because their forces are tied down in Ukraine. Russia can't fight a two-front war. But that doesn't mean the covert campaign stops. It just means it stays below the threshold of open conflict.
Luke
And that's the trap Stringer is describing—Putin wants to provoke an overreaction. If NATO responds too aggressively to a drone incursion or a cyberattack, it could escalate into something neither side intended.
Mark
So what's the actual endgame here?
Mimi
Winter is coming. Leaders expect attacks on infrastructure to spike. But most assessments suggest nothing changes until spring, when either Ukraine's position shifts or diplomatic talks become possible.
Luke
Or until Putin's losses in Ukraine force him to recalculate. Right now he's losing half a million soldiers and still hasn't achieved his objectives. That's the real pressure point.
Le Pouls
- NATO's deputy commander has publicly named Putin as 'increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting,' a rare and pointed escalation of official Western language about the Russian president's state of mind.
- Covert Russian disruption operations across Europe surged from 59 incidents in March 2025 to over 210 by September, including an explosive-laden drone found near a Ukrainian aircraft at Leipzig airport and the burning of an Estonian defense company.
- The threat is deliberately murky — many saboteurs recruited online by Russian intelligence don't know they work for Moscow, and GPS jamming meant for Ukraine sometimes pushes drones into NATO airspace, making attribution and response legally and politically treacherous.
- European leaders are divided: Baltic states bordering Russia urge vigilance, while British and Latvian officials assess that direct NATO military confrontation remains unlikely so long as Russian forces remain consumed by Ukraine.
- As winter nears, Baltic leaders warn that attacks on critical infrastructure will intensify, and NATO faces the grinding calculus of an adversary whose strategy depends on provoking the very overreaction that would fracture the alliance.
From a security conference in Tallinn, NATO's deputy commander has placed a name on what many have long sensed: Vladimir Putin, bloodied but unbroken by his war in Ukraine, is growing more willing to gamble with consequences. The warning arrives not as speculation but as documented fact — covert Russian operations across Europe have more than tripled since early 2025, blurring the line between accident and act of war. In seeking to fracture Western unity rather than win on the battlefield, Putin has chosen a strategy designed to be difficult to see, difficult to prove, and difficult to answer — a test of alliance patience as much as alliance strength.
At a security conference in Tallinn this week, NATO's deputy commander in Europe delivered a stark public warning: Vladimir Putin is growing more reckless. Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer described the Russian president as 'increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting' as his war in Ukraine drags on and his search for ways to divide the Western alliance intensifies.
The numbers behind that warning are striking. European authorities tracked 59 incidents of Russian disruption in March 2025; by September, that figure had climbed past 210. The operations range from vandalism and propaganda to arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks. German officials say Moscow orchestrated a plot at Leipzig airport involving a drone carrying explosives near a Ukrainian aircraft. British authorities disrupted a scheme to sabotage a drone factory outside London. An Estonian defense company burned down; a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded. Many of the saboteurs, recruited online by Russian intelligence, don't even know they are working for Moscow.
The challenge for NATO is that the boundary between accident and deliberate attack has grown razor-thin. Russian GPS jamming sometimes pushes unmanned aircraft into NATO airspace. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia might strike NATO nations with drones or missiles while claiming the strikes were unintentional. France has ordered preparations against potential drone and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.
European leaders remain divided on the severity of the threat. British officials assess that Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with NATO. Baltic leaders — from nations that border Russia and have long urged a harder Western line — have adopted a more cautious tone, though they too consider a conventional military assault unlikely given Putin's forces are tied down in Ukraine and NATO retaliation looms large.
What leaders agree on is the logic driving the surge: it is not a sign that NATO has failed to stop the attacks, but a direct consequence of Western support for Ukraine. Putin, facing slow battlefield gains and losses exceeding half a million dead, is trying to break that support by sowing division. As winter approaches, Baltic leaders expect infrastructure attacks to intensify. The best deterrent, they argue, remains unwavering support for Ukraine — and the patience to resist the overreaction Putin is counting on.
At a security conference in Tallinn this week, NATO's deputy commander in Europe delivered a stark assessment: Vladimir Putin is growing more reckless by the day. Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer told reporters that the Russian president has become "increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting" as his war in Ukraine grinds on and as he searches for ways to splinter the Western alliance. The warning arrives amid a documented surge in covert Russian operations across Europe—sabotage, espionage, drone incursions, cyberattacks—a campaign that has accelerated sharply since the invasion began.
The numbers tell part of the story. In March 2025, European authorities tracked 59 incidents of Russian disruption. By this month, that figure had climbed to more than 210, ranging from vandalism and propaganda to arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks. In August, German officials said Moscow orchestrated a plot at Leipzig airport where a drone carrying explosives was discovered near a Ukrainian aircraft filled with jet fuel. British authorities disrupted what they described as a Russian scheme to sabotage a drone factory outside London. An Estonian defense company burned down; a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded. Attribution remains difficult—many of the saboteurs recruited online by Russian intelligence services don't even know they work for Moscow.
The challenge for NATO is that the line between accident and deliberate attack has become razor-thin. Russian GPS jamming and electronic countermeasures meant to defend against Ukrainian drone strikes sometimes push unmanned aircraft into NATO airspace. Stringer acknowledged that Russia could escalate such activity further, though he stopped short of saying Moscow has made that decision. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned last week that Russia might deliberately strike NATO nations with drones or missiles while claiming the strikes were unintentional. French President Emmanuel Macron has ordered his government to prepare defenses against potential drone and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.
Yet European leaders remain divided on how serious the threat truly is. A British defense official, speaking anonymously, said the U.K. assessment holds that Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with NATO. Officials from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—nations that border Russia and have long pushed the West to take a harder line—have adopted a more cautious tone. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics told reporters at the United Nations that while Russia is absorbed in Ukraine and no military buildup has been observed near his country's borders, the prospect of a direct military attack seems unlikely. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal suggested that Russia's attitude toward negligence and deliberate targeting of NATO neighbors amounts to nearly the same thing, but he too assessed that a conventional military assault remains improbable given Putin's forces are tied down in Ukraine and the threat of NATO retaliation looms large.
Stringer and other leaders agree on one point: the surge in covert attacks is not a sign that NATO has failed to stop them, but rather a direct consequence of Western support for Ukraine. Putin, facing slow gains on the battlefield and mounting losses—more than half a million dead—is attempting to break that support by creating division among allies. Michal compared the Russian leader to a cornered animal, escalating activity across Europe in hopes of fracturing Western resolve. Meanwhile, Ukraine's deep-strike campaign has caused fuel shortages across 80 of Russia's 83 regions, yet there is no indication Putin is abandoning his objectives.
As winter approaches, Baltic leaders expect Russian attacks on infrastructure to intensify over the coming months. Michal said the high level of malign activity from Russia will persist until Putin changes his military goals, and that the best deterrent remains unwavering support for Ukraine. Diplomatic progress, leaders suggest, is unlikely before spring. For now, NATO faces a grinding reality: a determined adversary testing the alliance's defenses through methods designed to be hard to prove, hard to attribute, and hard to respond to without risking the very overreaction Putin hopes to provoke.
Citations marquantes
Putin is 'increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting' as he seeks to divide Western allies— Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, NATO deputy commander in Europe
The high level of malign activity from Russia will persist until Putin changes his military goals, and the best deterrent remains unwavering support for Ukraine— Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal
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War & Conflict