In the wake of Democrats taking both chambers of Congress, New Delhi is weighing whether a relationship strained for most of two years might finally find room to reset. The people who study it see an opening rather than a guarantee, because the decisive authority over foreign policy still rests with a president whose instincts have been the source of the friction. Trade stalls, visa fees, and old quarrels over Russian oil, arms, and Pakistan remain unresolved, and so the question becomes less about who wins an election than about whether a long partnership can outlast a season of disagreement.
Midterm Losses Could Open Room for a US-India Reset, but Washington Has Not Committed to Change
Washington may become "a more contested place" for India's disputes
Mark
Democrats took both chambers. Why does that matter in New Delhi specifically?
Mimi
Because the sore spots are trade, H-1B fees and Russian oil, and Congress has some say over the first two. India sends more exports to the US than anywhere else, so oversight of tariffs could ease pressure.
Luke
Could, is the word. The analysts say scrutiny, not reversal. Nothing in the reporting says a tariff or a fee changes because of this vote.
Mark
What about the $100,000 H-1B payment?
Mimi
Immigration lawyer Rajkrishna Iyer thinks it will be challenged in court and probably fail, since only Congress can legislate fees of that size.
Luke
That's one lawyer's prediction. Courts haven't ruled in what we've been given, and he also says Congress has done nothing on immigration for 25 years.
Mark
And Russia?
Mimi
Democrats joined Republicans in September to back sanctions on Moscow, so a new Congress may not soften that. D'Souza expects caution toward India, not a shift.
Luke
Which is a forecast. We don't know how the administration will actually handle Indian purchases.
Mark
So is this a reset or not?
Mimi
Opinions split. Pant says India won't be a clash point; Mattoo warns Trump might harden toward India if he blames the diaspora.
Luke
Right, and that diaspora theory is Mattoo's conditional warning, not a reported fact. Everything hinges on Trump's reaction, which nobody can confirm yet.
Der Puls
- A Democratic Congress now holds the power to scrutinize Trump's protectionist trade measures, which hit India's largest export market hardest.
- The $100,000 H-1B fee has rattled Indian professionals and tech firms, and lawyers expect courts to be the first arena where it is contested.
- Stalled trade talks and the unformalized interim framework leave India and the US at odds over market access just as pressure mounts.
- Russian oil and arms purchases and US weapons sales to Pakistan keep security ties awkward, with little sign of quick change.
- Analysts warn the real swing factor is Trump's reaction to congressional pushback, which could either soften his line or harden it against India.
In the wake of Democrats taking both chambers of Congress, New Delhi is weighing whether a relationship strained for most of two years might finally find room to reset. The people who study it see an opening rather than a guarantee, because the decisive authority over foreign policy still rests with a president whose instincts have been the source of the friction. Trade stalls, visa fees, and old quarrels over Russian oil, arms, and Pakistan remain unresolved, and so the question becomes less about who wins an election than about whether a long partnership can outlast a season of disagreement.
Democrats have taken both chambers of Congress, and in New Delhi the central question is whether this shift opens a way out of a relationship that has been under strain for nearly two years. The analysts Deutsche Welle spoke with see room for a reset, but none promises one, and the president still holds most of the levers of foreign policy.
The frictions are familiar. A trade agreement remains stalled, immigration rules have tightened, and India's continued purchases of Russian oil and weapons irritate Washington. Earlier waivers eased some sanctions, but the underlying disagreements have not gone away. The new Congress can press the White House on tariffs and immigration, yet it cannot easily rewrite executive decisions.
Trade is the first test. An interim framework discussed by Trump and Prime Minister Modi has yet to be formalized, and the two sides still disagree over market access. Shanthie Mariet D'Souza expects closer scrutiny of protectionist measures, which could give India some breathing room, and she believes the core of the strategic partnership will hold.
Immigration is harder. The $100,000 fee on certain H-1B petitions has alarmed Indian professionals and the companies that rely on them. Rajkrishna Iyer argues that charges of this size amount to legislation, which only Congress can pass, and he expects courts to strike the rule down if it survives long enough to be tested.
On Russia, the picture is murky. A substantial number of Democrats joined Republicans in backing sanctions in a September vote, but it is unclear whether a Democratic Congress will push further. Any escalation in the Iran war could also disrupt energy supplies that India depends on.
Security ties remain uneasy, with India objecting to US arms sales to Pakistan. Little change is expected there soon.
The larger uncertainty is Trump himself. He might seek compromise at home, or he might answer congressional resistance with a harder line abroad. Analysts differ on how he will respond, and what to watch is his reaction to the first congressional pushback and whether the stalled trade framework begins to move.
Democrats have won both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections, and in New Delhi the question is whether that opens a way out of a relationship that has been under strain for most of two years. Analysts speaking to Deutsche Welle see room for a reset. None of them sees a guarantee, and the president still holds most of the cards on foreign policy.
The friction points are well known. A trade agreement is stalled. Immigration rules have tightened. India continues to buy Russian oil and weapons, which Washington dislikes. The US granted an oil ban waiver in March 2026, and in October Trump waived some of the Russia sanctions, but the underlying disagreements remain. The new Congress can pressure the White House on tariffs and immigration, yet the president keeps significant authority over foreign policy.
Trade is the first test. India and the US have not formalized the interim framework that Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed in February, and they remain at odds over market access and other commitments. Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, founder of the Mantraya Institute of Strategic Studies, expects "increased scrutiny of protectionist measures" from the new Congress, and possibly stronger oversight and clearer standards on environmental and labor issues. For India, whose largest export market is the US, that could mean some breathing room. She also said the core pillars of the strategic partnership should hold and that the long-term goal of deeper economic ties will likely continue.
Immigration is harder. The administration has tightened H-1B visa rules, including a $100,000 (€88,761) payment for certain new petitions, which has alarmed Indian professionals and the tech companies that depend on the program. A Democratic majority could examine the issue but would not automatically undo measures imposed by executive action. Rajkrishna Iyer, a California-licensed immigration lawyer, noted that Congress has done nothing on immigration for more than 25 years and that both parties have bigger concerns. He still reads the results as a message to Trump, saying a rational president would not keep adding restrictions on legal immigration. Iyer expects the fee to be challenged in court and thinks the rules will most likely not take effect, or will be struck down if they do. The executive can raise fees to reflect administrative costs and inflation, he argued, but charges of this size amount to legislation that only Congress can pass.
On Russia, it is unclear whether a Democratic Congress will change anything. In a September vote on Russian sanctions, a substantial number of Democrats joined Republicans in backing trade restrictions on Moscow. D'Souza expects the administration to keep its preference for less dependence on Russia while handling India with diplomatic caution. The war in Iran adds risk: any escalation could disrupt Middle East energy exports and expose India, which relies heavily on imported oil. Navtej Sarna, a former Indian ambassador to the US and Israel, warned against reading the results too quickly for specific policy areas, saying much depends on how Trump reacts. He does expect Washington to become "a more contested place," and he would welcome it if that restores balance, stability and institutional linkages.
Security ties remain awkward. India is by far the biggest buyer of Russian arms exports, and it objects to US weapons going to Pakistan, including a $686 million sale of advanced military technology for Pakistan's F-16 jets. D'Souza said regional adjustments and US concerns about stability will probably prevent significant change there.
The larger uncertainty is Trump himself. A weakened president might seek compromises at home, or he might answer congressional resistance with a harder line abroad. Amitabh Mattoo, dean of the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, hopes the setback prompts a more considered review, but warned Trump could double down on India if he believes Indians, particularly parts of the diaspora, helped cause his party's defeat. Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation is more sanguine: India is unlikely to be an issue on which the White House and Congress clash, given the partnership's bipartisan history. Still, he argues the past two years show India must diversify its partnerships, build self-reliance in critical sectors and develop alternative supply chains, and that the midterms do not change that calculation.
What to watch is how Trump responds to the first congressional pushback, and whether the stalled trade framework moves.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
The need for diversification of partnerships, the need to be self-reliant in certain critical sectors, the need to have alternative supply chains — all of those issues remain where they are. The US midterms do not really change the calculus.— Harsh Pant, Observer Research Foundation
The president could double down and adopt an even harder line towards New Delhi if he comes to believe Indians played a role in his party's defeat.— Amitabh Mattoo, Jawaharlal Nehru University (paraphrased)
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