Manila Warns China May Exploit US Exercise Cuts, Though Washington Reaffirms Philippine Commitments

On Monday, September 7, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro sat down with Reuters in Seoul, on the sidelines of the Seoul Defence Dialogue, and addressed a question many security analysts in Asia have been asking since August: what happens when the United States dials back its military drills with an ally?

The trigger was a decision by US President Donald Trump to scale back military exercises with South Korea. That move has set off debate among analysts over how credible US deterrence in Asia remains, and whether rivals such as China might read it as a sign of weakening American resolve. Asked whether Beijing could seize on the change, Teodoro did not wave the idea away. "It is a possibility, of course. China is very quick to exploit gaps," he said. Looking at the Indo-Pacific as a whole, he added, the cuts may signal some opportunity for China to reassert itself.

He was equally direct about what Manila has been told. Washington, he said, has given the Philippines "definite assurances," and there is "no indication" that the changes in South Korea will touch commitments under the US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty. Teodoro said there has been no reduction in US-Philippine military activities, and that bilateral and multilateral cooperation involving Manila continues to expand.

That expansion has been a hallmark of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's tenure, with larger joint exercises and wider access for US forces to Philippine military facilities, as tensions with China in the South China Sea have sharpened. Teodoro said Manila is also widening its circle of partners. The Philippines recently concluded agreements with Canada and New Zealand, has signed a visiting forces agreement with France, and is negotiating a similar pact with Britain.

Teodoro also accused China of leaning more heavily on influence operations alongside its military and maritime pressure. "Definitely it takes advantage of democratic space in order to co-opt people and to use a free media to expand its distortive narratives," he said. He added that the Philippines is pursuing stronger espionage and foreign influence legislation to counter such activity.

On the economic front, he was guarded. Asked about Marcos's recent remarks that progress was being made toward possible talks on joint oil and gas exploration with China, Teodoro called it "doubtful" that any economic cooperation could be insulated from the long-running sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment on his remarks.

Teodoro was in Seoul to discuss expanding defence ties with South Korea, one of the Philippines' largest arms suppliers. Seoul has provided FA-50 light combat aircraft, frigates and other equipment as Manila modernises its armed forces. He said the Philippines wants deeper industrial cooperation and access to emerging defence technologies from South Korea.

On submarines, he tempered expectations. "The submarine programme is still under review," he said, pointing to open questions over mission requirements and the substantial infrastructure such a capability demands. "I would say it will be still a way off."

Teodoro closed by suggesting that worry over China is pulling regional states together and could eventually produce a more interconnected Indo-Pacific security network. "I believe so because the motivating factor there is China," he said. What to watch next: whether the deterrence debate changes any policy, and what becomes of the tentative oil and gas talks with Beijing.