The morning after a midterm vote has always carried two moods at once, the sifting of what the electorate has said and the anticipation of what comes next. Bruce Wolpe, of the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, reads that moment through precedent: presidents who once accepted defeat with humility, and a current president who, in his judgment, will not. His forecast of Trump's coming moves, from vote counting to war with Iran and the early shaping of 2028, is a prediction rather than a record, offered as a way of seeing where a nation's old habits of transfer and restraint may
Bruce Wolpe's Forecast: What Trump Will Do After the Midterms, and Why Predictions About 2028 Start Now
"No, it's not." The 2028 race starts the morning after.
Mark
Wolpe frames this as what happens the morning after. Why open with Bush and Obama?
Mimi
Because both named their defeat out loud. Bush said "thumping", Obama said "shellacking". Wolpe's point is that Trump, who called 2018 a "tremendous success", won't.
Mark
And then he predicts specific things, like a Hegseth impeachment vote before January 3.
Mimi
Led by Thomas Massie, a Republican Trump ended politically this year. It's a vivid detail, but it's a forecast.
Luke
Right, and that's my flag. The whole piece is opinion. Iran strikes right after the election, Trump urging candidates not to concede, Hegseth impeached: none of that has happened. Wolpe also says "many have speculated" about seizing voting machines, which is speculation about speculation.
Mark
What is solid?
Luke
Historical figures: 63 seats in 2010, 41 in 2018. Johnson's quoted concession. The DOJ's announced 1000 poll watchers. Those are attributed facts.
Mimi
And Wolpe isn't neutral. He's a former Democratic congressional staffer and chief of staff to Julia Gillard, which colours how he reads Trump.
Mark
What about the Senate?
Luke
He names Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas as the seats Republicans must hold, but gives no polling. How likely a Democratic Senate is stays unknown. The Alaska claim is also unsupported here.
Mimi
The 2028 section is the safest part: the field he lists is real, and Trump's own quote, "a long way off", is on record.
The Pulse
- Election night scrutiny of vote counts is expected to be unusually fierce, with federal poll watchers and security forces deployed near polling places.
- A president who refuses to concede could set up state-level fights over certification and voting machines, echoing the bitter aftermath of 2020.
- Democrats are poised to seize the House and push affordability, while impeachment is deferred in favour of sweeping investigations.
- The Senate hangs on Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas, and whichever way it falls will decide whether affordability bills become law or meet a veto.
- Hegseth faces a possible impeachment vote before January 3, 2027, and Iran strikes could come within days of the result.
The morning after a midterm vote has always carried two moods at once, the sifting of what the electorate has said and the anticipation of what comes next. Bruce Wolpe, of the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, reads that moment through precedent: presidents who once accepted defeat with humility, and a current president who, in his judgment, will not. His forecast of Trump's coming moves, from vote counting to war with Iran and the early shaping of 2028, is a prediction rather than a record, offered as a way of seeing where a nation's old habits of transfer and restraint may be tested.
Every midterm night leaves a question behind it: what will the winner and the loser do next? Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, has written a forecast in The Age that answers the question with history as his guide. Presidents Bush and Obama each took a midterm defeat in their own way, one calling it a thumping, the other a humbling shellacking. Wolpe does not expect Donald Trump to offer any such words, and he predicts a fight over the count rather than an acceptance of it.
He expects the vote itself to be watched closely, with federal poll watchers and uniformed security forces near polling places, and he expects Trump to urge trailing Republicans not to concede. Democrats, he writes, will likely take the House and rally behind Hakeem Jeffries, focusing on housing, healthcare, and the rising cost of living, while deferring impeachment in favour of investigations. The Senate will turn on a handful of races, and its outcome will decide whether Trump keeps confirming judges and nominees or faces laws he will veto.
Wolpe also sees a looming confrontation over Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a possible impeachment vote before the new Congress convenes, and the chance of strikes on Iran. Beyond the immediate weeks, the 2028 race will open with crowded Democratic and Republican fields, and the question of whether Trump might seek a third term will hang over it. These are predictions, and Wolpe himself notes how often the next move becomes the story no one anticipated.
The day after a midterm election has a familiar rhythm: reflection on what voters did, and projection toward what they might do two years later. Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, uses that rhythm to lay out what he expects after the 2026 vote. His piece in The Age is an opinion forecast, not a report of events, and everything below is his prediction unless stated otherwise.
Wolpe begins with precedent. In 2006, George W. Bush, weighed down by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and an economy heading toward the global financial crisis, watched Democrats take both the House and Senate. He called it a "thumping". In 2010, Barack Obama lost 63 House seats just two years into his first term, ending his legislative majority, and described a "shellacking" that was "humbling". Wolpe says Donald Trump will never use such language. After the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained 41 seats and the House while Republicans kept the Senate, Trump tweeted: "Tremendous success tonight." That new House majority went on to impeach him twice.
Bush also marked his defeat the next day by announcing the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the official most tied to the wars. Wolpe predicts Trump will not fire Pete Hegseth, whom he calls the secretary of war, over the war in Iran. But before the new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027, he expects Hegseth to face an impeachment vote led by Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican whose career Trump ended earlier this year. If it fails, Wolpe says, Democrats will try again in January, with every prospect of success. He also expects resignations and retirements across the White House and executive branch, with heavy speculation that chief of staff Susie Wiles might leave, something Trump has emphatically denied. In the days right after the vote, Wolpe expects Trump to join Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in attacks on Iran of overwhelming force, intended to bring it to the table for peace, with no certainty of outcome.
On election night itself, Wolpe says scrutiny of vote counting will be exceptional given Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 result, which ended in the January 6 attack on the Capitol. The Department of Justice has announced 1000 poll watchers for areas judged highly competitive, and uniformed security forces are to be sent to polling places in big cities with many Democratic voters. The Associated Press will call races, and its calls are treated as authoritative. Wolpe predicts Trump will urge trailing Republicans, especially in Senate races, not to concede, setting up state-level fights over certification. He notes speculation that Trump might order authorities to seize voting machines and ballots for recounts. He also says the Democratic candidate's campaign in Alaska is under heavy scrutiny over alleged attempts to tamper with the official ballot.
On Congress, Wolpe says Democrats are all but assured the House. Speaker Mike Johnson effectively conceded two weeks before the election, saying that if Republicans lost the majority he would expect colleagues to ask him to keep leading the conference. Democrats, Wolpe says, will rally behind Hakeem Jeffries, who would become the first Black speaker. Their agenda will centre on affordability: housing, healthcare, gas, utilities and energy costs, groceries and goods, and caregiving. Impeachment of Trump would be deferred for now, in favour of large investigations into alleged corruption and a $US2 billion rise in his personal wealth, his impoundment and reassignment of funds Congress appropriated, his control over Justice Department prosecutions of his enemies, and other abuses of executive power.
The Senate is the swing factor. If Republicans hold seats including Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas, they keep control, a replay of 2018 that lets Trump keep confirming Supreme Court justices, judges and cabinet and agency nominees. If Democrats take the Senate, both chambers could pass affordability legislation, Trump would veto it, and each side would have staked out its ground for 2028.
Wolpe says the 2028 race begins the next day, with reporters pressing every possible Democratic candidate. He lists governors Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker, Andy Beshear and Gretchen Whitmer; senators Mark Kelly, Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen and Elissa Slotkin; representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ro Khanna; Rahm Emanuel and Pete Buttigieg; and possibly Kamala Harris. Earlier entrants get more attention, so he expects announcements from January.
The Republican side is more complicated. The constitution bars Trump from a third term, though Wolpe says he may want to test that before the Supreme Court, since he says he was "cheated" in 2020. Declaring retirement would make him a lame duck, so Wolpe expects him to discourage rivals. He sees JD Vance as best placed and Marco Rubio as a strong contender. Asked whether he would endorse Vance, Trump said it was a long way off. Wolpe's reply: it is not.
Notable Quotes
In the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority, I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference.— Speaker Mike Johnson
Trump said of endorsing Vance that it is a long way off.— Donald Trump, paraphrased
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