Lula Wins Fourth Term After Overturning First-Round Deficit; Guardian Opens Reader Q&A on Brazil's Future

The first time a first-round verdict had been overturned in Brazil
Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.79% to 48.21% after losing the first round.
Mark

Why is this runoff being treated as such a big moment?

Mimi

Because Lula lost the first round to Flávio Bolsonaro and still won the second. No first-round verdict in Brazil had ever been overturned before.

Mark

The margin was 51.79% to 48.21%. Is that comfortable?

Mimi

It's a win, but a narrow one. It fits the description of a country that remains deeply divided.

Luke

Careful with the transport story, though. Lula's camp accused opponents of sabotaging public transport. That's an accusation, and the piece doesn't say it was proven.

Mark

And Bolsonaro's reaction?

Mimi

He called the result "sacanagem", roughly "bullshit", and refused to accept it, just as his father did four years earlier. Jair Bolsonaro is serving 27 years for the attempted coup.

Luke

What we have is his rejection of the result. We don't have anything here about what he plans to do next, or any evidence behind his claim.

Mark

What does Lula face now?

Mimi

A Congress full of Bolsonaro allies, soaring debt and structural economic problems. He also turns 81, so succession is an open question.

Luke

Right, and those are questions, not conclusions. Whether he has the energy, or who his successor might be, is unknown. The regional and Trump-related implications come from one columnist's view.

  • Lula trailed in the first round, then clawed back to win the runoff by just over three points, a reversal Brazilian politics has never seen.
  • Flávio Bolsonaro refuses to concede, calling the result 'sacanagem' and echoing the stance his father took after the last election.
  • Accusations of transport sabotage and a two-hour extension of polling time on election day have fuelled tension around the vote.
  • Lula must govern from a hostile Congress packed with Bolsonaro allies, amid soaring debt and entrenched economic problems.
  • At 81, Lula faces questions about his stamina and about who will carry his project forward once he steps aside.

Brazil has once again turned to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who came from behind in the runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, winning 51.79% to 48.21% and overturning a first-round defeat that no candidate in the nation's electoral history had managed before. The result gives him a fourth presidential term and will make him the longest-serving leader the country has known. Yet the victory arrives in a nation still split down the middle, where the son of a jailed former president refuses to accept the verdict, and where the echoes of an earlier defeat are never far away. It is a moment that shows the political tide can turn, even as the forces that pushed against it remain standing.

Brazil's presidential runoff ended with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva winning 51.79% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%. Lula had lost the first round to his far-right rival, and by winning the second he became the first Brazilian candidate to overturn a first-round verdict. The Guardian calls it the most stunning political fightback in modern Brazilian history. The win gives Lula a fourth term and will make him the longest-serving leader the country has had.

The road to the result was not smooth. A supreme court judge extended polling time by two hours on election day, and Lula's camp accused opponents of sabotaging public transport to keep voters away from the polls. These remain accusations from Lula's side, not established findings.

Flávio Bolsonaro has not accepted the outcome. He called the victory "sacanagem", roughly "bullshit", a reaction that echoes his father Jair's refusal to concede four years ago. Jair is now serving 27 years for his part in an attempted coup.

The country remains deeply divided. Lula will govern against a hostile Congress full of Bolsonaro allies, with soaring debt and structural problems offering little relief. At 81, he faces questions about his energy and about preparing a credible successor. The result also carries weight beyond Brazil, given the rightward currents in the region and the country's ties with Donald Trump's administration.

Brazil's presidential runoff ended with a margin of 51.79% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and with a result that no one in the country's electoral history had seen before. Lula had lost the first round to Bolsonaro, his far-right rival. By winning the second, he became the first candidate in Brazil to overturn a first-round verdict. The Guardian describes it as the most stunning political fightback in modern Brazilian history.

The win gives Lula a fourth term as president. It will make him the longest-serving leader the country has had.

The road to the result was not smooth. A supreme court judge extended polling time by two hours on the day of the vote. Lula's camp, for its part, accused its opponents of sabotaging public transport in an attempt to keep their voters from reaching the polls. The source reports these as accusations from Lula's side, and does not say they were established.

Flávio Bolsonaro did not accept the outcome. He called Lula's victory "sacanagem", a Portuguese word that roughly translates as "bullshit". His reaction echoes that of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who refused to accept defeat four years earlier. Jair Bolsonaro is now serving a 27-year prison sentence for his part in an attempted coup after that last presidential election.

Lula's victory does not end the country's divisions. Brazil remains deeply split, and the incoming government will face a hostile Congress packed with Bolsonaro allies. That will make significant legislative change difficult in a fourth term. The economy offers little relief either: the outlook is gloomy, with soaring debt and entrenched structural problems.

Then there is the question of Lula himself. He turns 81, and the Guardian asks whether he will have the energy to face down the far-right opposition for another four years, and to prepare the ground for a credible successor.

The result also reaches beyond Brazil's borders, to the wider region and to the country's relationship with Donald Trump's administration. Writing in the Guardian's Opinion pages, columnist Jordana Timerman argued that Lula's victory shows the rightward shift is neither inevitable nor irreversible. But, she wrote, the movement retains substantial electoral support, influence over the political agenda and a powerful ally in Washington.

The Guardian's Latin America correspondent, Tom Phillips, will take readers' questions on the result and on what lies ahead from 15:00 GMT on Tuesday 27 October. The open questions are Bolsonaro's refusal to concede, Lula's room to govern against a hostile Congress, and who might follow him.

Lula's victory shows that the rightward shift is neither inevitable nor irreversible, but the movement retains substantial electoral support and a powerful ally in Washington.
— Jordana Timerman, Guardian columnist (paraphrased)
Called Lula's victory "sacanagem", roughly "bullshit".
— Flávio Bolsonaro
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