Israel's Exit Polls Point to Deadlock as Netanyahu and Eisenkot Vie for Majority

When the polls closed at 22:00 on Tuesday night, turnout in Israel stood at 77.7%, the highest at that hour since 1999, according to the Central Elections Committee. Within minutes, three broadcasters released exit polls that settled almost nothing.

The first projections, from public broadcaster Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13, put the bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot at between 52 and 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, against 50 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition. Eisenkot's bloc includes his Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties, which together call themselves the Change Bloc. Neither side was near the 61 seats needed for a majority. In the early hours of Wednesday the broadcasters revised their numbers. Kan and Channel 13 showed the two blocs tied at 51 each, while Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 and Eisenkot's 49.

At Yashar's headquarters in Tel Aviv, supporters cheered and chanted "Bibi, go home!" as the first figures came in. Eisenkot said his side had "made history" and promised to see that the people's decision became a "Zionist government: stable and good for all of Israel's citizens". His ally Yair Lapid, a former prime minister whose Beyachad party is in the bloc, described the result as a "crushing defeat" for Netanyahu's camp.

At Likud's Jerusalem headquarters, the mood was tighter. Likud was projected to be the largest single party, but supporters told the BBC they were nervous. "It's not over until it's over, but I'm sweating," said one, Itzik. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the celebrations on the left premature. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir told backers of his far-right Jewish Power party to pray that the final count would produce a "full-on right-wing government". Later, Netanyahu appeared at Likud headquarters and declared that his bloc had a "great majority", calling for a "strong, right-wing national government".

The arithmetic may turn on the two Arab parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List. They were projected to win a record 18 or 19 seats, helped by reportedly strong turnout among Arab Israelis, who make up about a fifth of the population and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. They are emerging as kingmakers, yet only one party has openly backed working with them in government. United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas said he hoped the numbers would allow his party and the Change Bloc to reach 61 seats. His party sat in the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Lapid after the 2021 election, which lasted a year before collapsing. Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, warned that the grouping "cannot be ignored under any political scenario".

The vote was the first since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Many Israelis saw it as among the most consequential in the country's history, with the power to decide whether Israel stays on its current hard-line, religious-nationalist course. The campaign turned on accountability for the security failures behind 7 October, the conduct of the wars, how to share the burden of military service, judicial reforms and Israel's international standing.

Outside a polling station in an opposition stronghold in northern Tel Aviv, campaigners young and old worked until the last moment. Zivit Abramson, 88, said she voted for Eisenkot because Netanyahu was "ruining this country" and was "only about himself". Claire Tugendhaft said she backed Netanyahu as "the best man in the country to lead the country towards the outside world".

Netanyahu and his allies had urged supporters to turn out, warning of a surge among left-wing and Arab voters. "If you don't vote, we'll wake up tomorrow with a left-wing government, Arab parties, extreme Islam, and we'll lose the country," he was filmed saying. Likud and several other right-wing parties asked for voting hours to be extended beyond 22:00, a request many opponents read as desperation. The Central Elections Committee refused, saying the circumstances did not justify an extension and that the high turnout reflected strong public engagement.

Official results will begin to appear overnight, but about 600,000 absentee ballots, mostly cast by military personnel and roughly 10% of all votes, will not be fully counted until Thursday. After final results are confirmed and the president consults all factions, he will invite the leader he thinks most likely to succeed to try to form a coalition, a process that could take weeks. If it fails, Israel would have to vote again.