Exit Polls Show Israeli Election Deadlocked, Dealing a Setback to Netanyahu's Coalition

Exit polls released on Tuesday night showed Israel's first election since the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7, 2023 ending in a deadlock. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc was running neck and neck with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp, and neither side had a clear route to power.

Three broadcasters produced the projections. Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed the two blocs level. Channel 12 gave Eisenkot a narrow edge over the Likud-led camp. None of them put either side at the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to win a combined 13 seats inside Netanyahu's bloc.

Turnout was 77.7%, according to the Central Elections Committee. That is the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points above the 2022 figure. At the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth, an alliance of several Arab parties, supporters broke into whistles and applause when the exit polls came out, on what was a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Faten Gattas, a Joint List candidate, told the crowd: "We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here." Candidates hoped strong Arab turnout would let them help block Netanyahu's coalition from returning.

Arab parties sit outside both main blocs and could hold the balance of power. But Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party, has all but ruled out forming a government with them, which complicates his own path. Final results could take days, and in Israel's fragmented system smaller parties can become kingmakers. The deadlock could also let Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, stay on as caretaker while coalition talks run their course.

Speaking to cheering supporters in Tel Aviv, Eisenkot said the public had voted against Netanyahu serving as prime minister. He added that a worthy leader would accept that vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from politics. Opposition leader Yair Lapid went further, saying in a statement that the Netanyahu bloc had suffered a crushing defeat, a total collapse, and that the public had told it to go home. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, was more careful. He called the exit polls a major defeat for Netanyahu's coalition but said Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner and that much could change as votes were counted.

Eisenkot is 66 and lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He entered politics only four years ago and joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the 2023 attack, then quit eight months later, criticizing the prime minister's leadership. He ran on his security credentials while presenting himself as a centrist on domestic questions. He offers a break with Netanyahu and his far-right allies, but not with the hardline security approach that has deepened since 2023. He opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas' military wing must be destroyed or dismantled. He calls Israel's response a failure because Hamas remains in charge of Gaza. Gaza health authorities say that war has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians.

Voters weighed the trauma of the deadliest day in Israel's history, when Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage, and the wars with Hezbollah in Lebanon and with Iran that followed. Netanyahu has been criticized for the country's biggest security failure. He argues he made Israel and the world safer by killing top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. His coalition's policies have divided Israelis and deepened the country's international isolation, yet he casts himself as the leader with the mettle to face down Israel's enemies. He campaigned on an endorsement from U.S. President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran.

Netanyahu, 77, has been prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and has repeatedly survived political crises. His opponents have taken the premiership from him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years, and he was back 18 months later. He entered this vote facing long-standing corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over the intelligence failures that allowed the 2023 attack. The count over the coming days will show whether the exit polls hold, and whether Arab or other smaller parties end up deciding who governs.