Israel's Election Too Close to Call as Exit Polls Show Netanyahu Bloc Slightly Behind

Israelis streamed to polling stations on Tuesday in numbers not seen in half a century, and by the time voting closed at 10pm the exit polls had delivered something close to a deadlock. They suggested that the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, would take slightly more seats in the 120-seat Knesset than Benjamin Netanyahu's right and far-right coalition. Netanyahu's Likud nonetheless appeared to be the largest single party.

Turnout was the headline in its own right. More than 7 million people were eligible to vote, and by 6pm participation stood at 77.1%, up about 9% on the previous election. More serving military members voted, and there were reports of tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad flying in to cast ballots, with some still arriving at Ben Gurion airport on election day. Queues were long in cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa, which some analysts had expected to favour the opposition. The same pattern held in Israeli Arab towns, many of which have a long history of boycotting elections. Israeli citizens of Palestinian origin make up about 20% of the population.

That turnout may matter most. The exit polls projected as many as 18 seats for Israeli Arab parties, which would make them kingmakers in what looks certain to be protracted coalition talks. Netanyahu appears likely to fall short of the support needed for a new coalition. Eisenkot could in theory build a majority with the Arab parties, but he ruled that out before the vote. Both Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar therefore face a hard road to a majority. The mandate question is clearer than the arithmetic: Netanyahu, whose political fate is now in the balance, no longer has a claim to one. Yet a stalemate could still help him, since it might let him stay on as caretaker prime minister while talks drag on or another election is called.

Opposition figures treated the numbers as a defeat for him. Former prime minister Yair Lapid called it a crushing defeat and a total collapse, saying the public had told the bloc to get out. Eisenkot described the polls as a vote of no confidence in Netanyahu and said that, if the final results match, it is a complete victory for Israel's mainstream majority. He promised to work immediately to change the government.

The exit polls came after a failed last-minute push. Netanyahu and several other parties asked that polling stations stay open beyond the 10pm deadline, and the Central Elections Committee refused. Netanyahu had publicly suggested that the left and Arabs were trying to steal the election, and Likud claimed suspected irregularities at hundreds of polling stations used by Israeli Arabs. The committee said it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering. Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of laying the ground to challenge the result, citing what he called familiar tricks, lies and fearmongering. Critics noted that Netanyahu made a similar warning about Arab turnout in 2015.

The campaign was unusually febrile even by Israeli standards. On the eve of the vote Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption in a case moving at a glacial pace, posted an image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, and his coalition suggested Israel would be vulnerable to nuclear attack without him. On Tuesday, courting ultra-orthodox voters, he said the Jewish state was on the brink of ruin. After voting, he said he believed the Arab parties were receiving massive support and heading to the polls in unprecedented numbers. Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said while voting that Arab votes would change the government and hoped turnout in Arab communities would pass 70%. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, said it would be Abbas's government if Netanyahu and his allies lose.

The vote was framed as a referendum on nearly 17 years of unbroken Netanyahu rule, including three recent years of conflict. Since Hamas's attack on 7 October 2023, Israel's war in Gaza has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, and Israel has fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, occupied new territory in Syria and launched a war with the US against Iran. Its conduct in the West Bank, where violent settlers are accused of pogroms and ethnic cleansing, has brought international criticism. Haaretz urged readers to vote, writing that Israel cannot afford another four years under Netanyahu.

Exit polls are not final results. With many parties and much horse trading ahead, it will probably be weeks before the shape of the next government, and its leader, becomes clear. Whether Eisenkot will reconsider working with the Arab parties is the question to watch.