On a Wednesday morning after a long Tuesday of voting, Israel's exit polls drew a picture of a country that has turned against its longtime prime minister without yet deciding who will replace him. Netanyahu's bloc and the one led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot each appear to hold about 51 seats, leaving both short of a majority, with the Arab-led parties near 18 seats holding the balance that neither leader has yet been willing to reach for. It is the familiar shape of a democracy asking a difficult question: whether a clear rebuke can be turned into a working government, or whether t
Israeli Voters Rebuke Netanyahu, but Exit Polls Show No Clear Path to a Government
The simplest path to a government is the one Eisenkot had largely ruled out.
Mark
So what actually happened on Tuesday night?
Mimi
Israelis voted, and exit polls released early Wednesday showed Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's bloc each at about 51 seats, with Arab parties around 18.
Mark
And that's being called a rebuke of Netanyahu?
Mimi
The AP says the polls indicate voters gave his opponents a solid majority in the next parliament. The opposition as a whole outnumbers his bloc.
Luke
I'd slow down on that. Those are exit polls, not final results, and the seat numbers are given as approximate. The word rebuke is the AP's reading of them.
Mark
Why can't the opposition just form a government, then?
Mimi
Eisenkot's bloc alone is at about 51. He'd most likely need the Arab-led parties, and he had largely ruled that out.
Luke
Worth noting that largely ruled out is not the same as ruled out. The reporting doesn't say whether he'll change position, and I don't think anyone knows yet.
Mark
What's the risk if he does?
Mimi
The AP says it could alienate other opposition factions, so the route that adds up on paper might cost him support elsewhere.
Luke
And how long this takes, or whether elections are called again, is a forecast. The source says weeks of haggling are likely, not certain.
O Pulso
- Exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's each near 51 seats, leaving neither with a governing majority.
- Arab-led parties, projected near 18 seats, hold the swing votes that could decide the outcome.
- Eisenkot has largely ruled out partnering with those parties, and reversing that stance risks alienating his own allies.
- Coalition talks could drag on for weeks, and a failed negotiation could force another round of elections.
- The figures are projections, not final counts, so the numbers may shift once official results arrive.
On a Wednesday morning after a long Tuesday of voting, Israel's exit polls drew a picture of a country that has turned against its longtime prime minister without yet deciding who will replace him. Netanyahu's bloc and the one led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot each appear to hold about 51 seats, leaving both short of a majority, with the Arab-led parties near 18 seats holding the balance that neither leader has yet been willing to reach for. It is the familiar shape of a democracy asking a difficult question: whether a clear rebuke can be turned into a working government, or whether the arithmetic will simply send the nation back to the polls.
Early Wednesday, Israel's major television stations released exit polls from an election that had closed late the night before. The picture they drew was divided. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc appeared to have won about 51 seats in parliament, and the bloc led by his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, appeared to have won the same. Arab parties were projected at about 18.
The Associated Press, reporting through The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, framed the result as a rebuke of Netanyahu, since his opponents appeared to hold a solid majority in the next parliament. But that majority is made up of disparate parties that have not yet shown they can work together, and a majority on paper is not yet a government.
The arithmetic is the difficulty. Neither bloc reaches a governing majority alone, and the Arab-led parties hold the seats that could tip the balance. The simplest path would be for Eisenkot to partner with them, yet he had largely ruled out such a partnership before the vote. Changing course could cost him support among other opposition factions he will also need.
The figures come from exit polls rather than a count of ballots, and the final tally may differ. Coalition talks are expected to take weeks, and if no one can assemble a majority, another election could follow. For now, Netanyahu has been set back by the voters, and Eisenkot has been handed an opening he said he did not want. Watch whether Eisenkot softens his stance, and whether the official results confirm what the polls suggest.
Early Wednesday, Israel's major television stations released exit polls from the election that had closed late Tuesday, and the picture they drew was a divided one. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc appeared to have won about 51 seats in the parliament. So did the bloc led by his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Arab parties were projected at about 18.
The Associated Press, in the report carried by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, framed the result as a rebuke of Netanyahu. The exit polls indicated that voters had given his opponents a solid majority in the next parliament. But a majority in the abstract is not a government, and the opposition is made up of disparate parties that have not yet shown they can act together.
The arithmetic explains the difficulty. With Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's each near 51 seats, neither reaches a governing majority alone, and the Arab-led parties hold the seats that could tip the balance. The easiest path, by the AP's account, would be for Eisenkot to partner with those parties.
That is where the politics tighten. Eisenkot had largely ruled out such a partnership before the vote. Reversing course could be politically difficult for him, and it could potentially alienate other opposition factions whose support he would also need. The step that looks simplest on paper is therefore one that could fracture the coalition it is meant to build.
The figures themselves come from exit polls, not from a count of ballots. They are projections released by television stations, and the final tally may differ. The reporting describes the seat totals as approximate, and the outcome of coalition talks does not depend on them alone.
What follows is likely to be slow. The AP expects weeks of haggling among the parties before a prime minister is declared. There is also a second possibility: if no one can assemble a majority, another round of elections could be called.
For now, Netanyahu has been dealt a setback by the voters, and Eisenkot has been handed an opening he said he did not want to use. Watch whether Eisenkot softens his stance on Arab-led parties, and whether the official results confirm what the exit polls suggest.
Citações Notáveis
Whether those disparate parties can form a government is uncertain and will likely take weeks of haggling.— Associated Press report
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Politics & Governance