On a night when Israel's voters came out in numbers not seen in more than two decades, the country stood at a familiar crossroads: a long-dominant leader who has survived many storms, facing a challenger who once served in his own war cabinet and now asks the public to end his era. Exit polls showed neither side reaching the majority the Knesset requires, so the outcome passes from the ballot box to the slow art of coalition-building. Behind the numbers lies a nation still shaped by the October 2023 attack and the wars that followed, asking whether security can be restored without hardening it
Israeli Exit Polls Show Deadlock, Point to Setback for Netanyahu in Wartime Vote
Voters weighed the trauma of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage, and a Gaza war that has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, per Gaza health authorities.
On a night when Israel's voters came out in numbers not seen in more than two decades, the country stood at a familiar crossroads: a long-dominant leader who has survived many storms, facing a challenger who once served in his own war cabinet and now asks the public to end his era. Exit polls showed neither side reaching the majority the Knesset requires, so the outcome passes from the ballot box to the slow art of coalition-building. Behind the numbers lies a nation still shaped by the October 2023 attack and the wars that followed, asking whether security can be restored without hardening its divisions. What comes next will depend less on the first projections than on the bargains that smaller parties, including Arab lists, are willing to strike in the weeks ahead.
Shortly after 3 a.m. in Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Likud supporters and called for a strong right-wing government, speaking of military success and an opportunity to confront Iran. It was not the speech of a man who had won outright. Exit polls showed his camp in a near tie with the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot, and none of the three major broadcasters gave either side the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset.
In Tel Aviv, Eisenkot told cheering supporters that the public had rejected Netanyahu as prime minister, and he urged the leader to accept that verdict and retire. Analysts cautioned that Eisenkot had not clearly won and that counting could still shift the picture. The far-right parties of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to hold 13 seats within Netanyahu's bloc.
The Arab parties, gathered as the Joint List, could decide who governs. In Nazareth, their headquarters erupted when the numbers appeared, and candidate Faten Gattas declared, "We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here." Eisenkot, a former military chief who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, has ruled out working with them, leaving his path to power narrow.
The election carried the weight of October 7, 2023, when 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage, and of the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed. More than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to local health authorities. Voters turned out at 77.7%, the highest in decades, as they weighed Netanyahu's record against Eisenkot's promise of change within a similarly hawkish security outlook.
Results may take days, and coalition talks could stretch for weeks or months. If no bloc forms a government, Israel may face another vote, a prospect Eisenkot calls a mistake given the strength of this turnout.
Shortly after 3 a.m. on Wednesday in Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood before Likud supporters and said Israel must establish a strong, right-wing government. He pointed to the country's military successes and what he called a historic opportunity to remove the Iranian threat. It was not the speech of a man who had won outright. Exit polls from Tuesday's wartime election showed his camp locked in a near tie with the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot.
The broadcasters disagreed only at the margins. Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed the two blocs level. Channel 12 had Netanyahu's Likud-led camp taking a narrow edge as the night went on. None of the three gave either side the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The projections pointed to a setback for Netanyahu's coalition and possibly weeks of wrangling over a government. A deadlock could also let Israel's longest-serving prime minister stay on as caretaker while negotiations run.
Earlier, Eisenkot told cheering supporters in Tel Aviv that the public had voted against Netanyahu serving as prime minister. He said a worthy leader would accept that vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from politics. Opposition leader Yair Lapid went further, calling it a crushing defeat and a total collapse for the Netanyahu bloc. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, called the exit polls a major defeat for the coalition. He cautioned, though, that Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner and that much could change as votes were counted. The far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to take a combined 13 seats inside Netanyahu's bloc.
Arab parties outside both main blocs could hold the balance of power. Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party, has all but ruled out forming a government with them, which complicates his route to power. Turnout was 77.7%, the Central Elections Committee said. That is the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points above 2022. At the Joint List's headquarters in Nazareth, an alliance of several Arab parties, the room erupted in whistles and applause when the exit polls came out. Candidate Faten Gattas told the crowd, "We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here." Candidates hoped strong Arab turnout would let them play a decisive role in keeping Netanyahu's coalition from returning to power.
Eisenkot is 66 and lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He entered politics only four years ago and joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the 2023 Hamas attack, then quit eight months later, criticizing the prime minister's leadership. He offers a break with Netanyahu and his far-right allies, but not with the hawkish security posture that has hardened since 2023. He opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas's military wing must be destroyed or dismantled. He calls Israel's response a failure because Hamas remains in charge of Gaza, where more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed according to Gaza health authorities.
This was the first election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, Israel's deadliest day, when 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage, and since the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed. Netanyahu was criticized for the country's worst security failure. He argues he has made Israel and the world safer by killing top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. His coalition's policies have divided Israelis at home and deepened the country's international isolation. Even so, he casts himself as the leader with the mettle to face Israel's enemies.
Netanyahu is 77 and has been prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years. He has repeatedly survived political crises. His rivals have pried the premiership from him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years, and he was back 18 months later. He entered this race facing long-running corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over the intelligence failures that let the attack happen.
Final results could take days. Israel's fragmented system leaves smaller parties as potential kingmakers, and past coalition talks have lasted weeks or months. If neither bloc can form a government, another election may be needed. Eisenkot opposes that, saying that with turnout this high, going back to the polls would be a mistake.
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