On an election night when Israelis streamed to the polls in record numbers, the exit polls suggested that a nation scarred by the Oct. 7 attack and the years of war that followed had turned against the long rule of Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet the arithmetic that tells a story of rejection does not yet tell a story of governance: an opposition that may hold a narrow majority of seats still lacks a clear path to forming a government. The count is not yet final, and the decision of who will lead Israel now rests in the slow, fragile work of coalition-building.
Exit Polls Show Voters Rebuking Netanyahu, but Israel's Election Leaves No Clear Winner
The election follows the Oct. 7, 2023 attack and wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and families of those killed or former hostages held a moment of silence in Tel Aviv.
A majority on paper is not a government.
Mark
The exit polls say the opposition won. Why isn't this simply a change of government?
Mimi
Because the opposition's 52 to 53 seats don't reach a majority without the Arab-led parties' 17 to 18. The easiest path runs through Eisenkot partnering with them, and that may be politically hard.
Mark
Why hard?
Mimi
It could alienate other opposition factions. And Ben-Gvir was already framing it, warning it would be "Mansour Abbas' government."
Luke
Let me slow down. These are exit polls, not results. They can be wrong, and the final count may differ.
Mark
Fair. What do we actually know, then?
Mimi
Turnout was above 74 percent by 8 p.m., 8 points higher than in 2022, per the elections committee. That's counted, not estimated.
Luke
Right, though the source doesn't say who that turnout favored. Netanyahu said Arab turnout was unprecedented, but that's his claim, not a confirmed figure.
Mark
And if no one can form a coalition?
Mimi
New elections could come early next year. Israel held five between April 2019 and November 2022.
Luke
Whether that happens is unknown. It depends on final numbers and on talks that haven't started.
O Pulso
- Exit polls put the opposition at 52 to 53 seats, just past the threshold, while Netanyahu's bloc sits near 50 and no party reaches a majority alone.
- Turnout surged past 74 percent by eight o'clock, with tens of thousands flying in from abroad and 330,000 first-time young voters casting ballots.
- Netanyahu's camp and Ben-Gvir warned of Arab parties' rising power, while Likud's request to extend voting hours was refused, sharpening the fight over the final hours.
- Eisenkot faces a difficult navigation: forming a government may require partnering with Arab-led parties, a step that risks alienating other opposition factions.
- Final results may shift from the exit polls, and an inconclusive outcome could push the country toward coalition talks or another election early next year.
On an election night when Israelis streamed to the polls in record numbers, the exit polls suggested that a nation scarred by the Oct. 7 attack and the years of war that followed had turned against the long rule of Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet the arithmetic that tells a story of rejection does not yet tell a story of governance: an opposition that may hold a narrow majority of seats still lacks a clear path to forming a government. The count is not yet final, and the decision of who will lead Israel now rests in the slow, fragile work of coalition-building.
By eight o'clock on election night, more than 74 percent of eligible Israelis had already voted, the highest turnout at that hour in decades and 8 points above 2022. Tens of thousands had flown in from abroad to cast their ballots, and about 330,000 young Israelis were voting for the first time, many of them facing compulsory military service.
When the exit polls appeared, they pointed to a sharp rebuke of Prime Minister Netanyahu. His bloc was placed near 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while the opposition reached 52 to 53 and Arab-led parties 17 to 18. On paper, Netanyahu's opponents held a majority. But Israeli politics rarely turns a majority on paper into a government, and no party has ever won an outright majority on its own.
The most direct path to replacing Netanyahu runs through Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who would need Arab-led parties to form a coalition. That prospect is politically fraught and could cost him other allies. Throughout the day the campaign grew bitter: Netanyahu warned of "massive" Arab turnout, Likud sought to extend voting hours and was refused, and far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned of a government led by Mansour Abbas.
The day also carried the weight of Oct. 7. In Tel Aviv, families of the dead and former hostages stood in silence, and Eisenkot began his day in communities attacked that morning. The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's long rule, shaped by wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and by the judgments of supporters who see a steady wartime leader and critics who see political delay and weakened institutions.
Exit polls can be wrong, and final results may take days. If no coalition emerges, Israel could face another election early next year, as it has before. For now, the country waits to learn whether the count will match the polls, and whether anyone can build a government from it.
By eight o'clock on election night in Israel, more than 74 percent of eligible voters had already cast ballots. That was the highest turnout at that hour in decades and 8 percentage points above the 2022 election, according to the Central Elections Committee. More than 7 million people are eligible to vote, and tens of thousands were reported to have flown in from abroad to do it.
When the exit polls came out on Tuesday, released by the major Israeli TV stations, they pointed to a sharp rebuke of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They put his bloc at about 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The opposition came in at 52 to 53, and Arab-led parties at 17 to 18. Together, Netanyahu's opponents appeared to have a solid majority. But a majority on paper is not a government.
The easiest route to replacing Netanyahu would run through his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, who would need to partner with Arab-led parties. That could prove politically difficult and could alienate other opposition factions. Eisenkot said the polls reflected a "lack of confidence" in the sitting prime minister. Arab voters celebrated the numbers, while supporters of the far-right parties allied with Netanyahu expressed disappointment.
Exit polls, like all surveys, can be wrong. Preliminary results were expected within hours and final results within days, and they may differ. No party has ever won an outright majority in the Knesset, so coalitions are the rule. Israel's president will ask the leader with the best chance of assembling one, usually the head of the largest party, to try. Minority governments are possible but must depend on outside parties to pass legislation. If no one succeeds, new elections could come early next year. Israel already held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.
The Arab vote had become a central concern for Netanyahu. He warned that Arab parties were getting "truly massive support" and heading to the polls in "unprecedented numbers." His Likud party petitioned to extend voting hours beyond 10 p.m., but the election commission refused, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot had rejected the extension and urged voters to ignore Netanyahu's "scare tactics." Mansour Abbas, head of the Islamist Ra'am party, said while voting was underway, "Our vote will change the government." Arabs make up about 20 percent of Israel's population. Far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that if Netanyahu and his allies did not win, "it will be Mansour Abbas' government."
This was Israel's first national election since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and the day carried that weight. In Tel Aviv, families of some of those killed and former hostages held a moment of silence. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal was killed. Eisenkot began his day in communities attacked on Oct. 7, saying that if anyone in government had "a shred of responsibility," they would start their mornings there. He called on Israelis to vote out "the worst government Israel has known," cautioning that victory was not certain and that this was perhaps "the most critical day since the founding of the state." In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down an Eisenkot poster. About 330,000 young Israelis, many facing compulsory military service, were voting for the first time. Dean Livne, acting director-general of the elections commission, said complaints about irregularities were far fewer than in past elections.
The race was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17-year rule. Wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the West Bank, have drawn worldwide outrage and strained ties with allies. American public support has plummeted, some partners have imposed sanctions, and Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, which he denies. Ahead of the vote he warned Iran of "a devastating blow" if it attacked.
Supporters call Netanyahu a steady statesman who guided the country through a war of redemption. Critics say he prolonged the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons while on trial for corruption, weakened the judiciary, and enabled ultra-Orthodox exemptions from conscription. Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, is seen by backers as a capable security figure. Parties likely to support him have pledged to restore Israel's international standing, draft ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence. "The present government is driving the country into the ground," said Jerusalem voter Angela Bengur. In Jaffa, Nisso Shitrit said the vote was about "who serves and who evades service."
The next days will show whether the final count matches the exit polls, and then whether anyone can assemble a coalition at all.
Citações Notáveis
Our vote will change the government.— Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra'am party
The exit polls show a lack of confidence in the current prime minister.— Gadi Eisenkot (paraphrased)
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