On an October evening that ended a long season of war, Israelis went to the polls and left their country suspended between two halves of itself. The exit polls, which can drift as real ballots are counted, point to a tie that neither camp can yet turn into a government. Turnout reached levels not seen in more than two decades, as if a people who had lived through October 7 and the wars that followed wanted their hands on the outcome. What comes next will be decided less by the night's numbers than by the slow, uneasy arithmetic of who will bargain with whom.
Israeli Exit Polls Show Deadlock, Dealing Netanyahu an Apparent Setback
The election followed the Oct 7, 2023 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages, and wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, where Gaza health authorities report over 74,000 Palestinians killed.
Neither side has a clear path to power.
Mark
Exit polls say deadlock. What is actually on the table?
Mimi
Two networks have Eisenkot's bloc narrowly ahead, Channel 13 has both at 51 seats, and nobody reaches 61. Netanyahu's coalition had 68 going in.
Mark
So that's a big drop for him.
Mimi
Yes, and turnout was 77.7%, the highest in over two decades, so a lot of people showed up for this.
Luke
Keep in mind these are exit polls, not counted votes. Final results could take days, and Plesner himself warned Eisenkot is not a clear winner.
Mark
Why can't Eisenkot just claim the lead?
Mimi
Leading isn't governing. He has all but ruled out working with the Arab parties, which could hold the balance of power.
Luke
"All but ruled out" is not the same as ruled out, and we don't know whether that holds once the real numbers arrive.
Mark
And Netanyahu?
Mimi
Deadlock could let him stay on as caretaker during negotiations. He's come back before, 18 months after losing power once.
Luke
Lapid calling it a total collapse is a party statement made on election night, not a result. The seat counts will say more.
Der Puls
- Two networks put Eisenkot's bloc narrowly ahead while Channel 13 shows a dead heat at 51 seats each, and no projection reaches the 61 needed to govern.
- Netanyahu's coalition, which entered with 68 seats, is projected far below that mark, a jolt to a camp that has held power for most of three decades.
- Turnout of 77.7% has surged past anything in two decades, and supporters at the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth erupted as the Arab parties suddenly look like kingmakers.
- Eisenkot has ruled out governing with the Arab parties, so the path to power runs through a bargain he has publicly refused, and final counts could take days to settle the question.
On an October evening that ended a long season of war, Israelis went to the polls and left their country suspended between two halves of itself. The exit polls, which can drift as real ballots are counted, point to a tie that neither camp can yet turn into a government. Turnout reached levels not seen in more than two decades, as if a people who had lived through October 7 and the wars that followed wanted their hands on the outcome. What comes next will be decided less by the night's numbers than by the slow, uneasy arithmetic of who will bargain with whom.
Israel went to the polls on Tuesday in its first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the early verdict is a deadlock. Two of the three major networks gave Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc a narrow lead over Benjamin Netanyahu's camp, while Channel 13 had both sides level at 51 seats. No projection reached the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest in more than twenty years.
For Netanyahu, the night was a serious setback. His coalition entered the vote holding 68 seats, and the projections put it well short. Yohanan Plesner of the Israel Democracy Institute called it a major defeat but warned that Eisenkot had not won outright and that counting could shift things. Yair Lapid called it a crushing collapse. At the Joint List's headquarters in Nazareth, supporters cheered as the numbers came in, on what was a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Candidate Faten Gattas told them, "We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here."
Eisenkot, 66, lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after October 7 and quit eight months later, criticising the leadership. He offers a centrist break from Netanyahu and the far right, but not from a hard security line: he opposes Palestinian statehood and wants Hamas's military wing destroyed. Netanyahu, 77, faces corruption charges he denies, and argues that his assassinations of top Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian leaders made Israel safer. He campaigned with the backing of Donald Trump.
The Arab parties now hold the arithmetic in their hands, yet Eisenkot has ruled out working with them. Netanyahu may remain as caretaker while coalition talks play out, and final results could take days. Those talks, and the question of who will sit with whom, are what the country now waits to see.
Israel's first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023 ended its Tuesday vote in a deadlock, according to exit polls. Two of the country's three major television networks gave Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp. The third, Channel 13, put the two sides level at 51 seats each. None of the projections gave either side the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
If the projections hold, the outcome would be a significant setback for Netanyahu's coalition, which entered the vote with 68 seats. Within his bloc, the far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to take a combined 13 seats. The deadlock could still let Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, stay on as caretaker while coalition talks play out.
Turnout was 77.7%, the Central Elections Committee said. That is the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points above the 2022 figure. Final results could take days, and in a system where no single party has ever won 61 seats outright, smaller parties can become kingmakers.
The arithmetic is complicated by the Arab parties, which sit outside both main blocs and could hold the balance of power. Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party, has all but ruled out forming a government with them. That complicates his route to power even in the projections where his bloc finishes ahead. At the Joint List's headquarters in Nazareth, an alliance of several Arab parties, supporters burst into whistles and applause when the exit polls came out, on what was a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Candidate Faten Gattas told the gathering, "We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here." Candidates hoped strong Arab participation could help keep Netanyahu's coalition, the most far-right in Israel's history, from returning to power.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, called the exit polls a major defeat for Netanyahu's coalition, which was projected far below its 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset. He cautioned, though, that Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner and that much could change as votes were counted. Opposition leader Yair Lapid was less restrained, calling it a crushing defeat and a total collapse, and saying the public had told the Netanyahu bloc to go home. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, told a rally that the nation had given his side a sacred duty to turn trust into action and fortify democracy.
Eisenkot is 66 and lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He entered politics only four years ago and joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the 2023 attack, then quit eight months later, criticising the prime minister's leadership. He presents himself as a centrist at home with strong security credentials. He offers a break with Netanyahu and his far-right allies, but not with the hardline security approach that has deepened since 2023: he opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas's military wing must be destroyed or dismantled. He argues the war, which Gaza health authorities say has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, was a failure because Hamas still rules Gaza.
Voters weighed the trauma of October 7, when Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages, and the wars with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran that followed. Netanyahu, 77, has been criticised for the security failure and entered the race facing long-running corruption charges, which he denies. He argued that he made Israel and the world safer by assassinating top Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian leaders, and campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran.
Netanyahu has served nearly 19 of the past 30 years as prime minister and has survived repeated crises. His opponents have removed him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years, and he was back 18 months later. With final counts still days away and the Arab parties' role unresolved, the coalition negotiations are what to watch.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
The Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat; this is a total collapse and the public has told them to go home.— Yair Lapid, opposition leader
Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner and much could change as votes were counted.— Yohanan Plesner, Israel Democracy Institute (paraphrased)
Möchten Sie die ganze Geschichte?
Das Original lesen bei The Daily Star ↗
Politics & Governance