Exit Polls Point to Deadlock in Israel's Pivotal Election as Netanyahu and Eisenkot Fall Short of Majority

Exit polls from Israel's election point to a deadlock. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, appears on track to win a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The figures are projections, and final results could take days.

The vote drew record turnout. It was the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that followed. The attacks killed 1200 people and saw 251 taken hostage. Israelis were effectively passing wartime judgment on the man who has led the country through all of it.

Netanyahu is 77 and has been prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years. He has survived repeated political crises. He went into this election facing long-running corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over the intelligence failures that allowed the October 7 attackers through. His right-wing coalition's policies have divided Israelis at home and deepened the country's isolation abroad. He has cast himself as the leader with the mettle to face down Israel's enemies. Before the polls closed he urged supporters to turn out to offset high turnout among his progressive opponents and Arab Israelis. "You all need to stream to the polls," he said, calling it "a fateful moment."

Eisenkot, 66, is a hawkish former military chief who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He emerged as Netanyahu's strongest challenger, stressing his security record while presenting himself as a centrist on domestic questions. During the day he visited kibbutz Nir Oz in southern Israel, which was hit on October 7. He said he was convinced a change was coming, "a new spirit for the state of Israel," that would serve as a rectification for the past three years and that terrible day. He walked to the polls with Gadi Mozes, one of the 251 people taken to Gaza.

For many of Netanyahu's opponents, the election turns on accountability for the security failures of October 7. Opposition groups have promised an inquiry, which Netanyahu's government has resisted.

The stalemate may suit Netanyahu. He could stay in power in a caretaker capacity while parties try to assemble a governing coalition. Israel's fragmented system also makes it hard for his opponents to dislodge his bloc of conservative, religious and ultranationalist parties. No single party has ever won 61 seats outright, so coalitions are the norm, and smaller parties can end up as kingmakers. His rivals have removed him from the premiership only once since 2009, and that took four inconclusive elections in two years. He was back 18 months later.

Arab parties are one open question. Ahmed Tibi, a candidate from an Arab party, said record turnout among Israel's Arab minority would "pave the way for an alternative government and change the grave reality." Eisenkot has ruled out formally partnering with Arab parties, though some scenarios envision him relying on them to prop up a minority government.

The next step is the count. After that come what could be weeks of negotiation, shaped by the demand for an October 7 inquiry and by whether Eisenkot's refusal to partner with Arab parties holds.