On an October night in 2026, Israel's first election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 returned a verdict as divided as the country itself. Exit polls placed Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc level with Benjamin Netanyahu's camp, and neither side reached the 61 seats that would secure a majority. Voters came out in unusual numbers, with turnout the highest in more than two decades, and in the gap between the two blocs the Arab parties now hold a quiet but decisive weight. The sense of a turning point is strong, yet the arithmetic has not yet settled whose story will govern what comes nex
Israeli Exit Polls Show Deadlock as Eisenkot and Netanyahu Camps Run Neck and Neck
The Gaza war has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians according to Gaza health authorities, and the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages.
Neither side had a clear path to power.
Mark
Both blocs are level and neither has 61. Why does that still read as bad news for Netanyahu?
Mimi
Because a coalition that governed through the war was expected to hold a majority, and the polls show it falling short. Lapid called it a total collapse, though that's a partisan reading.
Luke
Right, and these are exit polls. Channel 12 had Eisenkot slightly ahead, the other two had a tie. Plesner himself warned that much could change as votes are counted.
Mark
So what makes Arab parties so important here?
Mimi
They sit outside both blocs, and turnout among Palestinian citizens was described as historic. The Joint List hopes that lets them block Netanyahu's return.
Luke
But blocking isn't governing. Eisenkot has all but ruled out partnering with them, and "all but" is not a formal refusal. How that plays out is unknown.
Mark
Does Eisenkot represent a real change in direction?
Mimi
On leadership, yes. On security, less so. He opposes Palestinian statehood and wants Hamas' military wing dismantled, and he calls the Gaza war a failure because Hamas still rules there.
Luke
Worth noting the 74,000 death toll comes from Gaza health authorities, so it is attributed, not independently confirmed in this reporting.
Mark
And what happens next?
Mimi
Final results could take days, then coalition talks, with Netanyahu possibly staying on as caretaker. He has come back before after losing power.
Luke
That last point is history, not a forecast. Nothing in the reporting says how this ends.
Il Polso
- Exit polls show a dead heat, with neither bloc anywhere near the 61 seats needed to govern.
- Turnout surged to 77.7%, the highest in two decades, and the fervor on both sides is palpable.
- Arab parties may decide who rules, while Eisenkot has all but ruled out partnering with them.
- Final counts could take days, and Netanyahu may remain in office as caretaker while coalition talks grind on.
On an October night in 2026, Israel's first election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 returned a verdict as divided as the country itself. Exit polls placed Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc level with Benjamin Netanyahu's camp, and neither side reached the 61 seats that would secure a majority. Voters came out in unusual numbers, with turnout the highest in more than two decades, and in the gap between the two blocs the Arab parties now hold a quiet but decisive weight. The sense of a turning point is strong, yet the arithmetic has not yet settled whose story will govern what comes next.
Exit polls released Tuesday night showed Israel's first election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack deadlocked. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc ran level with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp, and neither could see a clear path to power. Kan and Channel 13 put the blocs even, while Channel 12 gave Eisenkot a narrow edge. None projected the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset.
Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades. Final results may take days, and in a fragmented system the smaller parties could decide who governs. Far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to hold 13 seats inside Netanyahu's bloc. Arab parties sit outside both main blocs, but Eisenkot, a former military chief, has largely ruled out working with them, which complicates his route to the premiership.
In Tel Aviv, Eisenkot told supporters that the public had rejected Netanyahu as prime minister. In Nazareth, the Joint List greeted the results with applause and whistles, celebrating a historic turnout among Palestinian citizens who hoped to block Netanyahu's return. Eisenkot, 66, lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He offers a break from Netanyahu but not from the hardline security approach since 2023, and he insists Hamas' military wing must be dismantled. Gaza health authorities say the war has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians.
Netanyahu, 77, has survived repeated crises and faces corruption charges he denies, along with criticism of the intelligence failures before the attack. He points to the killing of senior Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian leaders as proof that Israel is safer. For now, the count continues, the coalition arithmetic is still unwritten, and Netanyahu is likely to remain in office throughout.
Exit polls released on Tuesday night showed Israel's first election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack deadlocked. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc was running level with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp, and neither side had a clear path to power.
Kan 11 and Channel 13 put the two blocs even. Channel 12 gave Eisenkot a narrow edge over the Likud-led camp. None of the three projected either side reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The numbers suggest a setback for Netanyahu's coalition, but the deadlock could let Israel's longest-serving prime minister stay on as caretaker while coalition talks play out.
Turnout was 77.7%, according to the Central Elections Committee. That is the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points above 2022. Final results could take days, and in a fragmented system the smaller parties can end up deciding who governs. Far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to win a combined 13 seats inside Netanyahu's bloc. Arab parties outside both main blocs could hold the balance of power, though Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party, has all but ruled out forming a government with them. That complicates his route to the premiership.
Speaking to cheering supporters in Tel Aviv, Eisenkot said the public had voted against Netanyahu serving as prime minister, and that a worthy leader would accept the people's non-confidence and announce his retirement from politics. Opposition leader Yair Lapid went further, calling it a crushing defeat and a total collapse for the Netanyahu bloc. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, was more careful. He called the exit polls a major defeat for the coalition but said Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner and that much could change as votes were counted.
Eisenkot is 66 and lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He entered politics only four years ago, joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the 2023 attack, and quit eight months later, criticising the prime minister's leadership. He ran on his security credentials while presenting himself as a centrist on domestic questions. He offers a break from Netanyahu and his far-right allies, but not from the hardline security approach that has deepened since 2023. He opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas' military wing must be destroyed or dismantled. He argues that Israel's response, a war that Gaza health authorities say has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, has failed because Hamas remains in charge.
At the Nazareth headquarters of the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties, whistles and applause broke out when the exit polls came in. It was a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Candidate Faten Gattas told the crowd that they refuse occupation and racism and will remain there. Candidates hoped the high Arab turnout would help block Netanyahu's coalition from returning.
Voters weighed the trauma of October 7, when Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage, and the wars with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran that followed. Netanyahu has faced criticism for the country's worst security failure. He argues that he made Israel and the world safer by killing top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. His coalition's policies have divided Israelis at home and deepened the country's isolation abroad.
Netanyahu, 77, has been prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and has survived repeated crises. His opponents have removed him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years, and he was back within eighteen months. He entered this race facing corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over the intelligence failures that preceded the attack. He campaigned on an endorsement from US President Donald Trump, his ally in the war against Iran. The next step is the count, then the coalition arithmetic, with Netanyahu likely in office throughout.
Citazioni salienti
The Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu's service as prime minister; a worthy leader would announce his retirement from politics.— Gadi Eisenkot, speaking to supporters in Tel Aviv
The Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat, a total collapse.— Yair Lapid, opposition leader
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